Kienthuctrader

The US government is about to reopen – Crypto is hoping for 'history to repeat'?

After 40 days of paralysis – the longest shutdown in US history is about to end.
The price $BTC is currently ~105,000$, up nearly 3%.
Many analysts are recalling the events of 2019: after reopening, Bitcoin surged over 300% in 5 months.


However — data also shows that at that time there were many other supporting factors (liquidity, sentiment recovery, end of the crypto winter)… so correlation ≠ causation.

Currently, the funding rate is rising sharply – many longs are FOMOing in afterwards, which sometimes doesn't turn out as beautifully as expected.

→ This week will test the reality:
shutdown ends → will BTC explode or just bounce lightly and then go sideways?

This article is not a buy signal — if you FOMO in right after the government reopens and $BTC goes… downward — then I will blame it on the winter in Washington :))

#Bitcoin #macro #shutdown #marketcycle #DYOR

Stablecoin is becoming 'mainstream' – Fed & Japan both nod

Stephen Miran – the new Fed governor appointed by Trump – stated that monetary policy needs to adapt to the rapidly rising demand for stablecoins. He predicts that the stablecoin market could reach 3 trillion $ before 2030.

At the same time, Japan is also supporting the 3 largest banks in the country to issue stablecoins.
Currently, the market value of stablecoins is approximately 300 billion $, many times higher than in 2021.

→ The trend is clear: Stablecoin increases → on-chain demand increases → crypto in general benefits accordingly.




This is not a buy-sell signal. If you go all-in on stablecoins and your coin remains stagnant, that's due to last year's karma, not because of this article! :))

#stablecoin #Fed #cryptooutlook #macro #DYOR

$HBAR still "has a chance to survive" but not enough power to bounce back!


HBAR is maintaining the support level of $0.162 despite the fluctuating market, but the money flow (CMF) is still in the negative zone, indicating that the outflow of money is greater than the inflow. The RSI is also below 50, so there isn't enough momentum to break strongly.

The price is around $0.174 — just below the resistance of $0.175. If it bounces through & holds → near target: $0.194 – $0.20.

If the overall market remains sluggish → the likelihood of continuing sideways around $0.162 – $0.175.

→ In short: it's not bad enough to panic, but not good enough to go all-in.
Sideways mentality — like "wanting to fly but the wind hasn't arrived yet."

This is not a buy/sell signal. If you happened to buy at the peak and the market crashes, don't look for me... I'm still holding RPL since last summer! :))

#crypto #HBAR #altcoin #marketupdate #DYOR

⚡️$ETH bounce back to $3,900 when both macro and on-chain are weak

ETH dropped 11% this week, trying to hold $3,400 — the correction coincides with Nasdaq -4%.
Investors are still debating the possibility of a bounce back to $3,900.


Bad macro:
– concerns about global growth
– AI sector is suspected of being overvalued
– prolonged US government shutdown = low consumer sentiment in the US near record lows (Michigan Index)

On-chain also looks bad:
– Futures premium only ~4% (normally 5–10%) → long side remains cautious
– Ethereum's TVL is down to 74B, -24% in 30 days
– Balancer v2 was hacked for $120M
– DApps revenue in October: $80.7M, -18% MoM
– ETF spot ETH net withdrawal of $507M in November

There are some silver linings:
– active addresses up +5%, transactions +2% vs last week
– Fusaka upgrade early December is still the main catalyst

But overall: upward momentum is not enough → short-term target of $3,900 remains weak.

No investment advice. If ETH goes back to 3.9k then say “I told you there was still hope.” If ETH drops to 2.8k then… blame macro 😆

#Ethereum #ETHNews #MacroRisk #OnChainData #CryptoMarket

⚡️Coinbase adds $ASTER to the listing roadmap

Coinbase has included ASTER – the native token of DEX Aster on the BNB Chain – in the roadmap list along with Monad and QCAD.


Note: roadmap ≠ immediate listing.
Only trade when liquidity is sufficient + technicals are stable.

DEX Aster supports:
– Perp + Spot
– Anti-MEV, hidden orders, Grid trading
– Multi-chain: Ethereum / Solana / Arbitrum
Volume since launch: >12.9 billion USD

Previously, CZ bought 2M USD ASTER, price pumped 35% and then broke below <1$.

Coinbase roadmap = raising expectations, but still needs legal + technical validation.

Not investment advice. If ASTER reaches 3$, then say “I told you so.” If it drops to 0.3$, pretend to be sleeping 😆

#ASTER #CoinbaseRoadmap #AltcoinNews #CryptoListing #CZ

⚡️Chainlink ($LINK ): price is stagnant – but the underlying signals are very strong

– LINK price is quiet, but Social Volume reached 356 – the highest in 3 years
– Weighted Sentiment: 3.307 → the community is hyping intensely despite the price being at the bottom
→ many believe this is a "silent accumulation" by smart money


– Tokenization is booming: Securitize integrates Chainlink data to price collateral assets on Aave Horizon
→ Aave Horizon TVL > 450M USD

– The Chainlink reserve fund purchased an additional 78,250 LINK (~1.1M USD) → the largest purchase ever
Total reserves: 729,338 LINK (10.8M USD) – avg price ~20.49$

Key levels
– Maintain support at 15.5$
– Break 17.7$ = confirm reversal
– Fail below 15.5$ → next support at 12.8$

This is not investment advice. If LINK soars to 23$, then say "I saw it coming early". If it drops to 12$, pretend you are offline fishing 😆

#LINK #Chainlink #Tokenization #SmartMoney #CryptoMarket

⚡️Bitcoin: strong fluctuations – but expectations for the end of the year remain high

– $BTC continues to fluctuate strongly after the recent drop
– Experts still expect Q4 could end positively if BTC recovers ~10% back to the breakeven zone ~114,000 USD
– If it exceeds strongly, BTC could test ATH 125k – 126k in 2025


Technical signals

– Miky Edge: BTC is still in a long-term uptrend channel since 2023
→ usually every time it hits the bottom of the channel, it bounces back very strongly (mid 2024: +200%)
→ if repeated: target 130k+

– AshCrypto: BTC close to MA50 weekly –曾是牛市的“支撑垫”
→ maintaining MA50 weekly = uptrend remains intact

Big cycle

– Titan of Crypto: BTC usually peaks 8–11 months after breaking previous ATH
→ it is currently the 11th month → approaching the "peak cycle timing zone"

Notable zone: the 100k area – if it bounces strongly from here → it could be a new launch.

Not investment advice. If you win, remember to share this post to show off. If you lose, pretend you never read a line 😆

#BTC #BitcoinCycle #CryptoMarket #BullishMacro #RiskManagement

⚡️Altcoin has rebounded strongly but… the joy feels a bit bland 😅

– A series of altcoins have had a strong rebound, many tokens increased by over +70%
– A few months ago, people would have been very excited, but now after being “crushed” multiple times… this rebound feels a bit… lackluster 🤣
– In general: being back is good, but to really "profit big" it’s not enough yet.

About $BTC (4H frame):

– Currently setting up a double bottom model
– But to confirm, we need a 4H candle to close above 104k – 105k with strong volume
– Today is the weekend => volume is usually weak => hard to confirm clearly
– The current price is right at the indecisive zone => both long/short are hard to decide


=> This is a suitable time to observe > jump in
This is not investment advice. If you happen to win after entering a position, don’t forget to credit me. And if you lose then… I’m currently AFK and can’t hear anything 😆

#BTC #Altcoin #CryptoMarket #MarketSentiment #RiskManagement

$MMT : from the peak $4.7 crashing to the bottom $0.5 – what happens next?

After the crazy pump up to more than $4.7, MMT has gone through a straight oxygen release – a deep correction around the $0.58 area – the level you have caught.

Current technical status at a glance:

– the price is in a new base area after "burning off the FOMO layer"
– volume has decreased – the selling side is weakening
– the overall market state is leaning towards rotation → low market cap altcoins may benefit in the next wave

Points to watch:

– if MMT can hold the support area ~$0.50 – $0.55
→ this could be the accumulation bottom area for a "resurrection" to build a foundation
– if it breaks this area → consider it lost support, have to wait for a new base below – do not force the trend

You bought at $0.5845 → this is exactly the area of "watching a movie + waiting for a new catalyst"
Not a place to go all-in, but an area: drink water / open the chart once a day / do not let dopamine control you.

The above content is not investment advice – if you finish reading and feel like a genius, then go all-in, then forget to activate SL tomorrow morning – then your USDT wallet will remind you of reality 😎

#MMT #Altcoins #BuyTheDipOrDieTrying #CryptoRiskManagement #ChartNotFeelings

⚡️SUMMARY — IS THE ALTCOIN SEASON APPROACHING?

Technical signals + cycle analysis are agreeing on a familiar scenario:

– The Altcoin/Bitcoin ratio has just bounced from the historical support zone – where the altseason was triggered in 2017–2018 and 2020–2021
→ meaning: the money flow is starting to “peek out” from Bitcoin

– The BTC Dominance chart has just broken out of the “rising wedge” pattern
→ in TA: breaking a rising wedge = capital leaving $BTC → flowing into alt

– Some experts even link the 2020 ↔ 2025 cycle
→ forecast: the strongest consensus signal will emerge from Q4/2025
→ and the real altseason could kick off in Q1/2026

– Forecast target: the altcoin ratio could aim for the 0.60+
→ meaning alt will outperform BTC for several months


=> Brief conclusion:
money flow is gradually changing direction — a high probability altseason is in the “initiation - early phase” (still weak phase - but the most important phase).

This article is not investment advice – if you finish reading and FOMO then end up in the red, just hug your pillow and sleep, don’t inbox to curse the writer 😎

#CryptoMarket #Altseason #BitcoinDominance #OnChainCycles #TechnicalSignals

⚡️November – a series of key political variables in the US causing market tremors

6 major US political news at the beginning of November are causing financial flows – from Wall Street to crypto – to be unsettled:

4 major elections (NY Mayor, NJ Governor, VA Governor, VA Attorney General) → the Republican party has "lost completely"

California passes a law for redistricting → significantly reducing GOP influence in Cali

The Trump lawsuit on tariff authority in the Supreme Court → the chances of winning are being underestimated (≈29%)

All of this is shaking market sentiment: Trump's current policies may only be "temporarily stable" for 2 years – while the future in 2028 is very unpredictable.

New York – the financial capital of the US – now has a new Mayor leaning towards social welfare → the ultra-rich are anxious → over 25 billionaires have announced their departure from NY. And this is the psychological factor causing both equities – gold – crypto to shake intensely in the first week of November.

Culmination: $BTC in one night with a range of up to 25% → finance reflects fear pricing with risk policy.


Not investment advice — don’t read this and then go all-in thinking I’ll be a millionaire tomorrow 😆

#USPolitics #MacroRisk #BTCVolatility #MarketSentiment #PolicyShock

$ADA – Dan Gambardello's discount scenario

Dan Gambardello presents 3 bearish scenarios for Cardano:

Most likely (60%) → ADA retraces to $0.35–0.45

If strong support breaks → could drop to $0.25–0.35

Worst case (10%) → ADA < $0.25 → equivalent to a deep reset state for the entire altcoin market

Currently, $ADA has tested $0.40 and then bounced back to $0.52 – showing that the market is extremely susceptible to noise and has thin liquidity.

Main point: this is not a “prediction of the future,” but scenarios for investors to prepare mentally – instead of fomo / despairing with each candle.

Not an investment recommendation — don’t sell your house to go all-in and then blame GPT 😆

#ADA #Cardano #BearCase #MarketScenarios #CryptoVolatility

$ETH weak – reserves on the exchange are low but demand has not returned

ETH dropped below $3,300 while BTC is also weak below $102,000 – overall market risk sentiment is decreasing.


Bright spot: the amount of ETH on exchanges continues to decrease significantly (from a peak of 35.5M ETH in 2020 to ~13.3M ETH currently). This reflects the trend of accumulation / staking – reducing the available supply for sale and may lay the groundwork for a new bull cycle.

However: the ETH spot ETF in the US has seen a net outflow of ~119M USD – BlackRock ETHA was the most heavily withdrawn. Retail interest is also cooling down – Open Interest in futures dropped from ~63B USD (October) to ~38.6B USD.

Technical: RSI at 32 – close to oversold. MACD still indicates a sell. If short-term support is broken – the downtrend will be reinforced. Key levels to watch: $3,057 – $2,880.
If there is a technical rebound – the target is to reclaim EMA200 at $3,599.
This article is for sharing purposes only — not a “buy button with two hands and shout GM” 😆

#ethereum #eth #derivatives #etf #cryptomarket

$XRP – Onchain explodes but the price has not yet "turned the tide"

XRP hit a monthly low of $2.06 and then surged 16% to $2.40, but the recovery momentum is still not strong enough to confirm a sustainable upward trend — market sentiment remains cautious.


Interesting fact: onchain activity is extremely "intense". In just 48 hours, over 21,000 new wallets were created on the XRP Ledger — the fastest rate in 8 months. Transactions on DEX reached 954,000 transactions/day — the highest in many months.

However, analysts warn that much of this activity may come from arbitrage / bots / whale distribution — not necessarily genuine buying demand.

Regarding whales: 90 days ago, the cash flow was negative > $650M, but in the last 90 days it has returned to neutral — a sign that a bottom may be forming. XRP futures are also more stable compared to BTC & ETH — indicating that many traders are “rotating capital” into XRP, taking advantage of short corrections to accumulate.

In summary: network data & derivatives are improving — but the final confirmation still awaits the price.

This is not investment advice — just an article that might make the "trading friends who lose" argue in the comments 😆

#xrp #onchain #cryptomarket #derivatives #whales

$ASTER – Will the whales return, and will the upward trend come back?

After breaking through to 1.28 USD thanks to the acquisition effect of CZ, Aster was sold off heavily, falling back to 0.81 USD. However, buying power returned very quickly — the "whales" are believed to have firmly defended the 1 USD level.


Coinalyze data shows that the 24-hour spot buying volume reached 327.16 million USD. Notably, a significant transaction: a whale lost about ~4.3 million USD when selling ENA — then turned around to accumulate more than 6.47 million USD of Aster — demonstrating confidence in a stronger upside for Aster at this stage.

In the derivatives market, the "long squeeze" wiped out 37 million USD in just 2 days on November 3-4 (33 million from Long). But right after that, the number of Perpetual transactions surged to 5.6 million — the highest in 3 weeks, along with a derivatives volume of 13.3 billion USD — speculative money has clearly returned.

Currently, Aster is up more than 20%, maintaining the 1 USD sentiment. The DMI is also signaling a consolidation of the upward trend — if momentum holds, the short-term target could be towards 1.2 USD. Conversely, if derivatives reverse, the price could very well drop back to the 0.9 USD area.

This is not investment advice, this is just an article meant to... have fun and to post on Facebook / X / Telegram for show 😆

#crypto #aster #altcoins #whales #marketflow

$ZEC has "surfaced", target 500 USD right in front of us

Zcash is the new focus of the anonymous coin group.

The price is around ~483 USD, maintaining support at 400 USD and money flow is strong.
CMF is approaching the overbought area → money flow signal has "full gas", there might be a short correction when close to 500 USD.
If it exceeds 500 → target 550 USD after nearly 8 years.
If it fails and profits are taken early → there is a risk of slipping back below 450 → even retesting at 400 / 344 USD.

Not investment advice — I also don’t know where the whale wallet is to ask 😅

#ZEC #PrivacyCoins #AltcoinSeason #MoneyFlow #UpsidePotential

HBAR sideway – buyers and sellers are struggling in the range of 0.16 – 0.20 USD

$HBAR decreased ~21% in 1 month, but the decline is starting to slow down compared to BTC & ETH.
On the daily chart: EMA100 is about to cross down EMA200 → weak long-term signal.
However, RSI is making higher lows → bullish divergence → selling pressure is gradually weakening.


On-chain: CMF increases when the price decreases → whales are quietly accumulating.
If the cash flow continues to maintain, HBAR may test the 0.20 USD range again.
Conversely, if buying pressure weakens, the support at 0.16 USD may be breached (bad scenario: down to 0.14).

Not investment advice — I’m just summarizing, I’m not standing guard at 0.16$ for you guys 😅

#HBAR #OnChain #CryptoFlow #SidewaysMarket #SmartMoney

Bitcoin drops to 98,900 USD – is the risk still not over?

$BTC suddenly hit a new 4-month low at 100,800 USD, creating a wave of concern that the market could continue to decline.
Trader HORSE believes that if the 100k mark is not a “trap,” then the bottom is approaching – but if it breaks clearly, the thin liquidity zone between 100k → 88k will open up.


Scott Melker reminds that each time BTC loses the 50MA weekly, history shows that the price tests the 200MA weekly – currently around 55,000 USD.

Moreover, CryptoQuant warns that if spot buying demand does not return → the risk of BTC dropping to 72,000 USD in the next 1–2 months.

Not investment advice — I don't know how much stable your wallets hold — I'm just summarizing, I don't hold the money! 😅

#Bitcoin #BTCPrice #OnChainData #CryptoRisk #MacroSentiment

$BTC "touched 98.9k then bounced back to 101k" — has it really broken 100k yet?

In the most recent volatile session, Bitcoin hit a low of 99.8k USD and quickly rebounded around 101k USD.
This "slip" has sparked debate in the community about whether it counts as breaking 100k or just a "stop sweep" during a few minutes of thin liquidity.


Market sentiment remains tense:
because once the price closes a candle truly below 100k with confirmed volume → the likelihood of testing deeper levels like 95k – 92k will become clearer.

Currently, there is no confirmation of breaking long-term support — it’s just a wick test.

Not investment advice — if you all-in and then come back to ask me why… I wouldn’t know how much stable your wallet is holding 😅

#Bitcoin #BTC101k #DipOrBreak #MarketVolatility #CryptoNotAdvice

$BTC Selling pressure continues — the market fears breaking 100,000 USD ⚠️

BTC is trading around 104,000 USD and remains deeply in a strong downtrend.
Analysts warn that the support region of 100k may be breached — if broken, the target to fill the CME Gap around 92,000 USD is being mentioned frequently.


Additionally, the negative sentiment is further amplified by:

whales selling off heavily

U.S. stocks plummeting

the USD rising again

Glassnode data shows that the STH group is returning to the “capitulation” zone, with NUPL hitting -0.058 — the lowest since April → often characteristic of the final pressure relief phases of a downtrend.

This article is not investment advice. If anyone FOMO'd at the peak and lost, just bear with it — I'm just summarizing, I don't hold your wallets. 😅

#Bitcoin #BTCPrice #OnChainData #CryptoMarket #Capitulation