Joyce加密研究

SpaceX isn’t in a hurry to scoop up more shares today.

The official unlocking of 910 million shares has started.

Now the most important thing isn’t:
“How many shares are there that can be sold?”

It’s—who is actually selling.

Once this batch of shares fully enters the market,
it’s enough to increase SpaceX’s current publicly available float by more than 100%.

And many early employees and investors have costs far below today’s share price.

In crypto terms, it’s easy to understand:

The project hasn’t collapsed;
the fundamentals are even pretty good,

but suddenly a large amount of low-cost holdings appears that can be cashed out.

So today I’m only watching one signal:

After the release of 900 million shares,
can the stock price really be pushed down or not.

If it sells off on high volume:
Keep waiting.

If a large number of sell orders shows up, but is quickly absorbed:
I’ll start turning more proactive.

If even such a massive share unlock can’t push the price down:

Then that’s actually the strongest signal.

Earnings reports have already proven SpaceX can make money.

Now the market needs to prove—

whether anyone is willing to take the other side.
$SPACE

#SpaceX #starlink #spacex9.115亿股周四解禁

ADA surged to 0.20 and was knocked back—so is this move really a reversal?

As of just now, ADA is around $0.189.

A few days ago it pushed close to $0.20, but it’s fallen back again.

Clear enough: bullish, but I won’t chase it here.

Why?

First, over the past week ADA is still up about 15%, which means its relative strength hasn’t been fully broken.

Second, in the previous period, whales accumulated more than 240 million ADA in five days—not just retail investors are chasing.

Third, Cardano has also seen real progress recently; it’s been testing and connecting IBC cross-chain with Injective on the testnet.

But the biggest flaw right now is also very obvious:

$0.20 is a price the market is unwilling to let go of easily.

So next, I’ll only watch three levels:

Resistance overhead:
0.197—0.20

Breakout confirmation:
If it breaks out with volume and holds above 0.20, I’ll turn more bullish; the next target would be $0.22—$0.23.

Short-term support:
0.184—0.186

The true line between strength and weakness:
around 0.173.

For those who already hold:
If you’re above 0.184, I won’t panic just because of a one-day pullback—the real thing to guard against is a renewed drop back below 0.173.

For those who haven’t bought yet:
I won’t chase around 0.19. Either wait for a pullback to support, or wait until 0.20 truly holds to enter on the right-hand side.

The most interesting part of this ADA move isn’t how much it’s risen.

It’s this—

The whales have already placed their bets; now it’s the price’s turn to prove whether they bought right.

$ADA #Cardano #山寨币热点

I’m not very optimistic about BTC in the short term based on this ISM data.

The U.S. services PMI rose to 54.1 in July.

On the surface:
The economy still looks pretty strong.

But two numbers inside matter more:

The price index surged to 70.3,
while employment fell to 47.4.

In plain terms, things are getting more expensive, but companies are increasingly unwilling to hire.

This is actually very uncomfortable for the Federal Reserve.

The economy isn’t weak enough that it has to be rescued right away,
and inflation isn’t low enough that it’s safe to cut rates.

This is exactly the kind of situation BTC dislikes:

Liquidity can’t be released,
and the economy is starting to show cracks again.

So for now, I won’t treat “weaker employment” as a clear positive.

The real comfortable scenario would be:

Employment cools gradually,
and inflation cools along with it.

Not this one—
people are being hired less,
but prices are still rising.

Next, I’ll only watch Friday’s nonfarm payrolls.

If employment continues to weaken significantly, and U.S. Treasury yields fall,
I’ll turn more bullish.

If employment isn’t bad and inflation pressure remains high,
then the Fed still has reasons to stay hawkish.

In one sentence:

The biggest problem with the U.S. economy right now isn’t that it’s too strong or too weak.

It’s that it has a bit of stagflation flavor.

$BTC $ETH #ISM #美国ISM服务业指数升至54.1

I’m a bit bearish on this short-term move in Korea’s AI chip stocks—I’m not in a hurry to buy.

Today the KOSPI fell more than 4%,
Samsung dropped about 6%,
and SK Hynix at one point nearly fell 10%.

But what’s strange is:

AI demand hasn’t collapsed,
and profits haven’t collapsed either.

What’s really frustrating the market is—

The money was made,
but shareholders feel they didn’t get their fair share.

Samsung and SK Hynix are expected to have total net cash of around $263 billion by the end of the year.

So shareholders are now directly demanding:

More dividends,
more buybacks,
and less of only focusing on continuing to burn capital expenditure.

So in this pullback, I think it’s not just “the AI trade going quiet.”

It feels more like the market has started asking again:

When it comes to the money made from AI,
who does it ultimately end up in the pocket of?

For the short term, I’ll stay cautious.

But if Samsung and SK Hynix later actually roll out more aggressive buyback and dividend plans,
it could become a catalyst for the next round of rebound.

This AI cycle is moving into its second phase:

Previously, it only looked at growth.

Now it’s starting to look at—

After the money is made, how much do shareholders end up getting?

#AI #sk海力士盘前二度闪崩30% #SK海力士三星拖累韩股下挫

Gold has finally started to turn more bullish this time.

Not because it jumped more than 3% in a single day.

Rather, it has finally broken upward through the downward structure that had been suppressing it for months.

Spot gold is currently around $4,265,
which has reached its highest level in nearly seven weeks.

Why has this move suddenly gotten strong?

First, U.S. Treasury yields are moving lower.

Second, the U.S. dollar is weakening.

Third, easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and falling oil prices—
causing the market to start pricing in again that:

inflation pressure is easing, and the Fed is less likely to keep hiking rates.

Plus, ADP employment came in at only 44,000.

With several factors pushing at the same time,
Gold finally moved.

Now, watch two levels:

On the downside: around 4,200—4,220.

As long as it pulls back and still holds,
I'll continue to recognize this breakout.

On the upside: first, 4,300—4,350.

If it can build volume and hold above 4,300,
this rebound still has room to extend.

But don't ignore one thing:

Friday's nonfarm payrolls is the real test.

If the data comes in unexpectedly strong, and Treasury yields rise again,
this breakout could be knocked back quickly.

So my view is very clear:

Above 4,200, I’m slightly bullish in the short term.

If it falls back below 4,200 and can’t reclaim it,
then the breakout view is invalid.

The most interesting part right now isn’t “how much” gold has risen.

It’s this—

after yields on U.S. Treasuries have stayed so high,
capital is starting to be willing to buy gold again,
a piece that doesn’t pay interest.
$XAU $BTC

#黄金 #BTC #美联储何时降息？ #黄金突破下行趋势线

SNDK is slightly bearish in the short term, but the mid-term logic is not broken.
If, after that, it pulls back to around $1,200—$1,250 and shows clear support, it may be worth paying attention.

This is not a fundamental breakdown.

Instead:

The earnings are great, but market expectations are even higher.

SanDisk’s earnings report this time is actually very strong:

Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion,
yoy growth of 372%.

Data center business revenue doubled quarter-over-quarter,
and AI storage demand is still the core driver.

But why doesn’t the market buy it?

Because the stock price has already priced in too much of the future in advance.

From the June high of about $2,350,
it has recently pulled back and traded in a range of $1,200—$1,450.

This looks more like:

profit-taking after overly optimistic expectations fell short,
plus leverage positions being unwound.

Similar to the prior moves of Samsung and SK hynix:

the cycle logic hasn’t disappeared,
but capital needs to reprice.

Short term:

Support: $1,200—$1,250

If price can stabilize here with increased volume,
short-term repairs may be in the cards.

Breakdown:

The next support to watch is $1,100—$1,150.

Upward resistance: $1,400—$1,450.
Only if it can regain and hold above that,
will market sentiment potentially improve.

Mid term:

I’m still relatively positive.

AI data center demand,
storage price increases,
and growth in data center orders—

these core logics have not changed.

So:
Don’t chase a rebound in the short term. Wait for panic to wash out, and wait for price to find support.
A deeper pullback may feel more comfortable than chasing at highs.

Great companies don’t necessarily rise every day.

But truly strong companies often provide opportunities when the market is excessively pessimistic.
Latest price performance (Aug 6)
The regular session close of the stock was about $1,350.50 (-5.40%).
After-hours, it pushed lower further, with a low around $1,243–$1,288, and the decline widened to 7%–8%.
Intraday high was about $1,440–$1,447, and the low tested down to around $1,340.
SNDKUSDT (perpetual contract) is highly linked to the underlying stock; after the earnings release, it also saw a rapid pullback, with leverage-driven volatility clearly amplified.

$SNDK
#AI #存储芯片 #闪迪 #SNDK

SpaceX’s earnings report is strong, yet the stock price still fell.

Many people don’t understand:

If a company makes money, why does the stock still drop?

The answer is simple:

The market isn’t buying the past.

It’s buying the future.

In SpaceX’s Q2 report, revenue was $7.8 billion,
beating market expectations.

Starlink growth remains strong.

But investors are now worried about:

How much more will have to be burned in the future?

AI,
Starship,

and the expansion of the satellite network—

all of these projects require massive capital investment.

More importantly:

On August 6, about 910 million shares will be unblocked.

When a great company faces a large supply of shares,
it will also face near-term pressure.

So:

Good earnings ≠ the stock will definitely rise.

The real sign of strength is:

With this huge share-unblocking pressure,
the market can still absorb it.

Next, the focus is on:

If the stock stabilizes quickly after unblocking,
it shows that capital recognizes the long-term value.

If it continues to fall,
it means the market still needs to digest the valuation.

Many people like to look for “good companies.”

But what matters more in investing is:

Even a good company
has to wait for a good price.

$SPACE #starlink #spacex上市后首份财报跌11%

U.S. jobs are starting to cool down.

But is this good news or bad news for BTC?

In July, ADP private-sector job growth came in noticeably below market expectations.

First reaction:

Weaker employment → reduced pressure on the Fed → risk assets get a breather.

So BTC may get short-term support.

But don’t get too excited yet.

The market’s favorite script isn’t:

“the U.S. economy is falling apart.”

Instead, it’s:

the economy gradually cools, inflation keeps falling, and the Fed has room to cut rates.

If employment just “weakens,” that’s an opportunity for liquidity expectations.

But if it turns into:

more layoffs, faster declines in consumption,

then it’s not good news.

Next, the focus is on:

Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls data.

Employment keeps cooling,

without spiraling out of control—

that may be the market’s most comfortable outcome.

Too strong: the Fed isn’t in a rush to cut rates.

Too weak: the market starts to fear a recession.

Right now, the most critical thing isn’t whether jobs are good or bad.

It’s whether the U.S. economy can achieve a “soft landing.”

$BTC #美联储何时降息？ #美adp7月私营就业逊预期

South Korea’s crypto tax has been introduced, and there’s been no extension.

Many people had been hoping before:
Will the new government cancel it?

Result: No.

But what’s truly worth paying attention to isn’t just whether you have to pay the tax.

It’s that South Korea’s stance toward the crypto market is changing.

Previously:

Crypto = high-risk speculation.

Now:

Crypto = an asset that can be regulated and taxed.

What does this mean behind the scenes?

Regulators are starting to assume by default that:

This market won’t disappear.

Of course, the concerns are also very real:

If the tax rate is too high, will capital move to overseas exchanges?

If the rules are too strict, will retail investors in South Korea keep participating?

South Korea has long been one of the most active crypto markets globally.

So this isn’t a simple negative.

More like a test:

After the crypto market enters the regulatory era,
will capital stay, or will it look for new outlets?

My view:

In the short term, sentiment may be pressured.

But in the long run,
any truly mature market ultimately has to move from “no one regulates it” to “there are rules.”

#BTC☀ #韩国税改未延后加密征税

US employment has softened again.

In July, ADP private payrolls only increased by 44,000,
while the market had expected 70,000.

This isn’t “the US economy is over.”

It’s this:

The Fed wants to keep raising rates, but now it has one fewer reason.

For BTC, of course, this is bullish in the short term.

Cooling employment
→ less pressure to raise rates
→ US Treasury yields are easier to move lower
→ risk assets get a breather.

But don’t pop the champagne yet.

Because weak jobs data comes in two types:

A gradual slowdown is the “soft landing” BTC likes.

A sudden deterioration turns into an economic recession, and stocks and crypto get hit together.

So today’s 44k isn’t the final answer.

The real test is still Friday’s nonfarm payrolls.

If employment keeps cooling but the unemployment rate doesn’t show a clear deterioration, I’d actually be even more bullish on BTC.

The most comfortable script is never “the US economy is collapsing.”

Instead, it’s:

Weak enough that the Fed wouldn’t dare to raise rates,
but not weak enough to make the market fear a recession.

$BTC $ETH #美联储何时降息？ #美adp7月私营就业逊预期

SpaceX has dropped like this—should we buy now?

Direct answer:

I’m not in a hurry to buy right now.

It’s not that SpaceX is bad.

On the contrary, the first earnings report isn’t bad at all:
Q2 revenue was $7.8 billion, beating the forecast of $6.9 billion;
adjusted EBITDA was about $3.5 billion, nearly doubling year over year.

The company’s fundamentals haven’t broken yet.

But whether the stock is a good buy is another matter.

On August 6, up to about 910 million shares will become eligible for release.

At a time like this, I’d rather miss a bit than step in early and become a bag-holder for early investors.

What I really want to see is this:

When the release actually comes,
when a large amount of shares can be sold,

the stock price still won’t drop.

That would show there truly are people willing to pick up the shares below.

So my logic is very simple:

Good earnings report → long-term fundamentals get a boost.

910 million shares eligible for release → in the short term, I’m more cautious.

If the price falls on high volume after the release:
continue waiting.

If it gets hammered and then quickly snaps back:
then start paying attention.

With so much selling pressure from the release, and yet the stock won’t budge down—
that’s actually a signal I like the most.

A lot of people only look at one line when trying to catch a falling knife:

“it’s already down a lot.”

I’d rather look at the other line:

“with so many people wanting to sell, why can’t it drop?”

A good company ≠ a good buy point right now.

Let the sellers sell first.

I won’t take the first punch.

$SPACE
#SpaceX #starlink #Space

SpaceX’s first listed earnings report is out.

The numbers are solid.

Q2 revenue was $7.8 billion,
beating market expectations of $6.9 billion.

Adjusted EBITDA was about $3.5 billion,
nearly doubling year over year.

Looks like it should be cause for celebration.

But the market reaction is surprisingly calm.

Why?

Because investors are no longer focusing on whether they’re “making money.”

Instead, it’s this:

How much more cash will be burned in the future.

SpaceX’s biggest advantage:

Starlink is becoming a cash machine.

But its biggest pressure:

Super projects like AI and Starship are also gobbling up huge amounts of capital.

More importantly:

On August 6, roughly 910 million shares of restricted stock will be unlocked.

That’s the real short-term test.

The earnings report proves one thing:

SpaceX’s business really can generate profits.

But the unlock will answer another question:

Will the market be willing to absorb the stakes held by early investors?

That’s how it often goes with many companies:

A good company ≠ a good price.

Growth solves long-term problems.

The unlock determines short-term sentiment.

In the days ahead, I’ll be watching August 6 more closely.

Because the real stress test starts now.

#SpaceX #AI
$SPCX
#spacex上市后首份财报跌11%

Korea’s crypto tax—no postponement came.

Many people had hoped before:
Would the new government cancel or delay it?

Result:

No.

What’s really worth paying attention to here isn’t just whether to pay the tax.

It’s that South Korea’s attitude toward the crypto market is changing.

Previously it was mostly about:

Limiting risk.

Now it’s more like:

Accept that it exists, and then begin regulation.

South Korea has long been one of the most active crypto markets in the world.

A large number of retail traders,

and a huge amount of capital involved.

So once the tax policy is implemented, it may affect sentiment in the short term.

But in the long run, it also shows one thing:

Crypto assets are gradually moving from “grey-area investments” into the traditional financial regulatory framework.

Of course, the question remains:

If the tax burden is too high, will it push capital toward overseas trading platforms?

Between regulation and the market, there’s always an ongoing search for balance.

This time, South Korea didn’t choose to ease up.

Instead it chose:

Set the rules first.

#韩国 $BTC
#韩国税改未延后加密征税

U.S. telecom stocks fall before the open.

What the market is truly worried about is not just telecom.

It’s this:

In the AI era, who is actually making money?
Who is only burning cash?

Over the past few years, telecom companies have been ramping up investment:

5G, fiber, cloud computing, and AI infrastructure.

But then the problem arises:

Capital expenditures keep getting higher,
while revenue growth hasn’t surged in sync.

Now the market is starting to re-evaluate:

How long will these investments take to turn into profit?

This is actually the same logic as the recent AI sector.

Wall Street isn’t afraid of companies spending money.
What it fears is that the money gets burned,
but growth doesn’t keep up.

So the next AI rally may see a split:

Companies that genuinely generate cash flow will continue to enjoy high valuations.

For companies that only tell a story and are propped up by concepts,
pressure will only increase.

AI’s biggest test isn’t the technology.

It’s how fast you can make money.$SPCX

#Aİ #科技股 #美电信股盘前下跌

Circle raises its 2026 performance guidance.

But what really matters isn’t the numbers. Instead, it’s this:

Stablecoins are starting to shift from “story” to “business.”

Circle expects other full-year revenue to rise to $310 million—$330 million, far above prior expectations.

The market used to trade USDC:

More often it was trading the future.

But now it’s starting to look at something else:

Can stablecoins keep making money?

Because what’s truly valuable isn’t issuing a coin.

It’s:

Who can control the flow of global capital.

If in the future AI payments, cross-border payments, and on-chain finance keep developing, stablecoins could become the underlying infrastructure.

Of course, the risks are clear too:

Competition is getting fiercer, can USDC growth continue, can market valuations hold up.

So what I’m looking at now with Circle is:

Not just a single crypto company.

More like this:

In the end, in the traditional finance world and the crypto world, who will become the money of the future.

$USDC
#Circle #USDC #stablecoin#circle上调2026年业绩指引

Sino crude oil drops directly by 6.01%.

Many people think
oil prices fall → inflation eases → BTC is bullish.

It’s not that simple.

This drop in oil prices is currently more like two things pressing down at the same time:

As tensions between the US and Iran ease, the war premium is first unwound;
OPEC+ production increase expectations also land another blow on the supply side.

So in the short term:

Crude oil: clearly bearish.
Gold: the safe-haven premium will also be compressed a bit.
BTC and ETH: actually feel a little better.

Because when oil prices are lower, inflation pressure is smaller, and the Fed has slightly less justification to keep hiking.

But:

a fall in oil prices comes in two types.

If it’s a decline caused by the easing of tensions from the war, it’s generally bullish for risk assets.

If later it turns into continued selling because “global demand isn’t doing well,” then it’s not bullish for BTC—it means the economy is weakening too.

So I’m not in a hurry to call “oil down = coins up.”

First, see whether that 6% cut is wiping out the war premium,
or whether it’s pricing in a deterioration in demand.

The two outcomes are very, very far apart.

$BTC $ETH #CrudeOil #Inflation#sc原油下跌6.01%

Today’s market action: I’m watching these key things.

1. BTC is still grinding around 63,500—64,000.

Overall, it’s relatively resilient.

On Monday, spot BTC ETFs saw a renewed net inflow of about $170 million—mainly driven by BlackRock’s IBIT buying.

Trading volume isn’t large; the market feels more like it’s waiting and watching rather than panicking and fleeing.

As long as it doesn’t break down with volume through 62,500—63,000, I won’t treat this move as a trend-collapse for now.

2. SpaceX will release its first earnings report tonight.

After the U.S. stock market closes today, it will announce Q2.

More importantly is August 6, when about 911.5 million shares enter their first major unlock window.

So even if tonight’s earnings look great, we still have to see whether the market can absorb the next batch of shares the day after tomorrow.

3. Circle will announce Q2 tomorrow.

Just before the earnings release, Morgan Stanley sharply cut its target price.

Whether the stablecoin story can still support a high valuation is crucial this time—this earnings report will be key.

4. Macro pressure hasn’t gone away.

U.S. Treasury yields are still elevated,
and the risk from carry trades after the coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention in the yen is still being worked through.

There’s also employment data this week.

As for the Coldcard vulnerability, there are currently no new large-scale breakout points, but the risk hasn’t completely passed.

Right now, it’s neither broad panic nor a comfortable one-way bull market.

It’s more like—

BTC is holding,
macro is weighing down,
capital is waiting,
and certain individual events are moving on their own tracks.

In the short term, I’ll keep watching 63K.
Hold it, keep consolidating.
If it really gets volume and breaks through to the downside, then we’ll reevaluate again.

$BTC #SpaceX首个锁定期8月6日到期 #Circle #美联储何时降息？ #Coldcard盗窃超1亿美元

SpaceX has been a bit like the crypto market these past couple of days.

Tonight it will release its Q2 earnings report.

On August 6, the first batch of large-scale “unlocking” will follow immediately.

Up to about 910 million shares held by insiders, employees, and early investors can start to be sold.

How harsh is this number?

SpaceX’s stock price is already down 43% from its peak,
with the options market still pricing in 15% swings around the earnings release.

So whether tonight’s earnings report is good or not isn’t the only focus.

The real question is:

If the earnings report is great,
will that batch of early stakes cash out on the rebound on August 6?

Isn’t this exactly the most familiar plotline from the crypto world?

The project is great,
the story is great,
and the data is great,

but once the unlock date arrives, suddenly there’s a whole lot of shares that can be sold.

So now, when it comes to SpaceX, people are only watching two things:

Whether tonight’s earnings report can lift market sentiment.

And on August 6—
can the market actually absorb these more-than-900 million shares of potential sell orders?

This time, SpaceX has taught crypto a lesson:

Fundamentals determine whether you want to buy,
unlocking determines whether you can hold up in the short term.

#SpaceX #马斯克概念 #spacex将公布q2财报 #SpaceX首个锁定期8月6日到期

Palantir’s earnings report blew things up—up more than 17% in premarket.

But I think the hardest hit isn’t the stock price.

Q2 revenue grew 93% year over year,
while U.S. commercial revenue jumped 149%.

This isn’t an “AI story” anymore.

It’s that customers are really paying.

Microsoft and Amazon handle selling compute power,
while Palantir does something else:

It plugs AI into the real operations of enterprises, governments, and defense contractors—then charges for it.

So I’m increasingly thinking:

In the next phase of AI, the most valuable thing may not be who has the biggest model.

It may be who turns AI into cash flow first.

For the crypto market’s AI concepts, this is obviously a sentiment positive.

But it’s also kind of awkward—

$PLTR is already using revenue to prove AI,
and many AI coins still just have “AI” in the name.

For the next round of “real” AI trading, I’ll care more about one thing:

Is anyone willing to pay for it.

#AI #palantir涨10%受q2财报超预期推动

SpaceX is “turning in” its report tonight.

But the part of this earnings report you should really look at isn’t the rockets.

It’s whether Starlink can (or can’t) bankroll Musk’s AI ambitions.

Market expectations put SpaceX’s Q2 revenue at about $6.9 billion, of which Starlink may contribute around $3.8 billion in revenue and $1.4 billion in operating profit.

In plain terms:

Starlink is a cash cow right now,
while AI is a money-eating monster.

So the real question tonight isn’t “how much did SpaceX make?”

It’s—

Does the money Starlink earns still have what it takes to keep funding AI and super-projects like Starship?

If it does, the market will keep buying into Musk’s strategy of “one profitable business supports a whole set of future plans.”

If it doesn’t, the valuation gets a little awkward.

Tonight, just watch these three things:

Is Starlink growth still fast?
How much is AI still going to burn?
And when Starship will truly start making money.

On the surface, this earnings report is about SpaceX.

In reality, it’s a balance sheet for Musk’s entire AI + space empire.

#SpaceX #starlink #AI #spacex将公布q2财报