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S&P 全面修订成长股与价值股划分规则，迫使 3750 亿美元被动资金大换仓

标普道琼斯指数公司周五宣布，将调整股票划分为成长股和价值股的规则。新规则将无形资产、预期盈利和自由现金流纳入估值评估，以判断股价是否相对低估。同时，衡量公司成长潜力的指标将不再包含过去 12 个月的股价动能。此次调整经过近期广泛征求意见，将于 12 月 21 日市场开盘前的年度指数重组中正式生效。分析师詹姆斯·塞法特估计，至少有 3750 亿美元的被动型基金资金与受影响的指数挂钩，可能被迫调整持仓以匹配新的成分股名单。标普此举源于市场对传统价值股估值指标（尤其是市净率）长期有效性的争议，研究人员和基金经理认为，价值股长期表现低迷部分原因在于现有衡量标准存在缺陷。新规则旨在更准确地捕捉公司的成长潜力，也将推动投资者重新评估价值股与成长股的配置策略。

恒大清盘人两年只捞回34亿港元，面对3600亿债主只能还不到1%。更扎心的是，他们还在恒大香港总部翻出一批价值13亿港元的“隐形资产”——95幅毕加索、莫奈、沃霍尔的名画，居然是2016年短短18个月内从同一家香港画商那儿集中买下的。

一边是债主们拿着判决书追讨无门，一边是当年豪掷千金收藏艺术。现在这些画作成了清盘人重点追讨的资产，可就算全变现，相对于3600亿的债务窟窿，也只是杯水车薪。恒大这艘沉船，打捞队捞了快三年，捞上来的钱还不够填利息的零头。

市场波动下，资金风险偏好降低，创新药板块调整不小。但 interesting 的是，多家公募基金和外资机构却密集南下，持续布局创新药龙头股。多位基金经理在三季报中强调，未来几年将是中国创新药数据读出、海外授权和商业化价值兑现的关键阶段。逆势布局，看来他们对这个赛道依然信心十足。

The White House announced that Melania Trump brokered a partial ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in Oleshky, effective October 29. Both sides agreed to suspend military operations, open humanitarian corridors, ensure aid supplies can enter, and allow civilians to evacuate through safe corridors.

U.S. fusion startup Marathon Fusion announced last month that it had successfully transmuted mercury into stable gold, at a production level 10 times the previous record set by CERN. However, the achievement has not been independently verified, and available information cannot confirm the actual yield or cost.

France’s bond market was rocked by historic turmoil this week, with the yield spread between 10-year French and German government bonds reaching 1.7 percentage points, its widest since late 2011, when the eurozone debt crisis was at its most severe. Investors are awaiting Moody’s update to France’s sovereign rating on Friday evening. Moody’s currently rates France Aa3—one notch higher than S&P and Fitch—with a negative outlook, and markets expect a possible downgrade. If downgraded, France would lose the last major agency to assign it an AA-level rating, further underscoring the deterioration in its debt position.

Middle Eastern spot crude “plunges” while futures “surge”

Spot prices for crude flowing out of the Persian Gulf have fallen. Although the threat of geopolitical attacks remains, producers and traders have mastered the “art of navigating” the Strait of Hormuz, and shipments are actually moving more smoothly. Asian refiners report a recent surge in spot offers, with sellers proactively cutting prices to secure sales. A cargo of Iraqi Basrah Medium crude was sold via a ship-to-ship transfer in the Gulf of Oman at a discount of nearly $10 a barrel to the Dubai benchmark, whereas a month ago it was trading close to parity. A “buyers’ market” has emerged in the spot market, yet Brent futures are testing a May high and have risen for three straight weeks. Warren Patterson of ING points to the core contradiction: physical supplies are currently stable, but the market is paying a hefty fear premium for the possibility that “it could blow up again.” That is the real reason spot and futures prices are diverging.

In a letter to investors in September, Bridgewater’s China team shared two candid views: they had trimmed their gold allocation, while remaining “cautiously optimistic” about A-shares. The Shanghai-based hedge fund explained that rising interest rates had increased the cost of holding gold, while higher oil prices had dampened demand in energy-importing countries such as India. As a result, it had gradually reduced its previously overweight gold position.

However, the team remains optimistic about Chinese assets. Bridgewater China believes that A-share valuations are not high at present, policy priorities are conducive to long-term capital formation, and bond yields remain low—all factors that could attract more money into the stock market.

In short, gold has cooled off, while China’s stock market is seen as a potential “hot ticket.” For investors seeking to balance risk and return, this could be a welcome shot in the arm.

Tesla Optimus humanoid robot production is a long way from meeting the market’s lofty expectations

JPMorgan’s latest research report says Tesla updated investors on the progress of its Optimus humanoid robot at its third-quarter 2026 earnings call, confirming that production has begun at its Fremont factory in California. The company also said it may be able to ship the robots to other companies by the end of next year. However, mass production will be a gradual process, not something achieved overnight. Production guidance ahead of external sales stands at 10,000 to 20,000 units, well below the market’s most optimistic expectations.

JPMorgan’s visit to the China International Industry Fair (CIIF) found that real demand in the humanoid robot industry is currently concentrated mainly among ecosystem suppliers of sensors, 3D vision, data collection, reducers and dexterous hands. Overall, demand remains at the R&D, pilot and data-collection stages, rather than involving large-scale end-user deployment.

In light of this reality, JPMorgan said it is becoming more selective about the broader humanoid robot supply chain. The bank noted that the recent rebound in Chinese robot manufacturers, led by Unitree and UBTECH, has been driven more by sentiment, and expects the market’s expectations to be gradually reset over the next one to three months.

Among Tesla’s robot supply-chain stocks, Heli Hydraulic and Sanhua Intelligent Controls were named as the top picks. Both are confirmed suppliers and have relatively attractive valuations. JPMorgan’s ranking is as follows: Heli Hydraulic = Sanhua Intelligent Controls (both rated “Overweight”) > Green Harmonic (rated “Overweight”) > Orbbec (rated “Overweight”) > Inovance Technology (rated “Neutral”) > UBTECH (rated “Neutral”) > Estun = Unitree Technology.

The report sends a clear signal: the golden age of the humanoid robot industry may take longer to arrive.

A dramatic turnaround: Asia-Pacific stocks stage a broad V-shaped rebound
A-shares rebound quickly! ChiNext Index rises more than 2%
Hong Kong’s three major indices all gain, with the Hang Seng Tech Index leading
South Korea’s KOSPI turns higher, with SK Hynix up more than 4%
The Nikkei also makes a strong recovery.

Shanghai-listed companies’ interim dividends exceed RMB 420 billion in 2026, with blue chips leading the high-dividend surge
Latest statistics show that Shanghai-listed companies, including those listed on the STAR Market, have distributed more than RMB 420 billion in cash dividends for the first half of 2026. Cash dividends implemented since the start of the year have totaled nearly RMB 1.7 trillion. Nearly 30 companies have paid more than RMB 10 billion in dividends this year, and more generous payouts are expected to be announced after the release of third-quarter reports. Continued dividend payments by blue-chip companies have kept yields high among constituent companies of Shanghai’s major indices, spanning industries including shipping, finance, consumer goods, and transportation. Based on share prices as of June 30, constituent companies of the SSE 50 Index had an average dividend yield of 3.4% for 2025. Eighteen companies had yields above 4%, and 10 exceeded 5%. Among companies in the SSE 180 Index, 58 had yields above 4%, while 33 exceeded 5%.

AI capital-spending frenzy to end in 2028, tech stocks plunge 30%
TS Lombard’s chief macro strategist warns that the US AI capital-spending frenzy could come to an abrupt halt in early 2028, triggering a sharp market reset. The S&P 500 is expected to fall 30%, tech stocks to plunge 40%, and around $20 trillion in market value to be wiped out, bringing tech’s weighting back to pre-ChatGPT-launch levels. While tech giants may weather the storm thanks to their strong balance sheets, weaker players upstream—such as cloud service providers and independent model developers—could trigger a wave of defaults, with credit losses estimated at $125–190 billion. At the macro level, a sharp drop in AI spending could reduce US GDP by around 2% and eliminate about 800,000 data-center construction jobs. However, healthy private-sector balance sheets and ample room for the Fed to cut rates mean this would not escalate into a 2008-style financial crisis.

Gold suddenly plunged, with spot gold falling below the $4,010-per-ounce mark and down 0.36% for the day. The drop made many people watching the gold market uneasy. Did the U.S. dollar suddenly strengthen, or does the market feel less urgency to seek safe havens? Behind the short-term volatility, there may be a new shift in capital flows.

#FollowBack #FollowForFollow #AlwaysFollowBack

The markets have gone completely berserk! Markets around the world are selling off across the board: U.S. stocks, A-shares, European stocks, Korean stocks, the Nikkei, Hong Kong stocks, Brazilian stocks, Indian stocks—and even Bitcoin and the crypto market. 😅😅😅

There’s only one winner: oil prices are up again, and inflation just won’t come down.

OpenAI’s latest funding round is absolutely explosive! According to CNBC, the company is close to completing a massive round of funding worth up to $30 billion, putting its valuation at a staggering $1.25 trillion. Led by investors from the UAE, the deal has once again shattered the valuation ceiling for global AI companies. It seems AI’s ability to attract money is reshuffling the very rules of wealth creation.

#FollowBack# #FollowAndI’llFollowBack#

Shares of Moderna and Merck fell after data on their personalized melanoma vaccine were released. Trial results announced in August showed that the tailored vaccine, when used with Merck’s blockbuster drug Keytruda, could significantly reduce the risk of the cancer recurring—a clinically meaningful result. However, the complete data released Thursday fell short of Wall Street’s already high expectations. While the results showed the vaccine was effective, the market did not see them as enough to support the companies’ broader vision of pioneering a new way to treat multiple cancers. Moderna’s stock ultimately plunged 18%, while Merck’s fell 1.8%.

The United States is placing its “chips” on power semiconductors, a card it has yet to play. On Thursday, the Department of Commerce announced $389 million (about RMB 2.8 billion) in R&D funding for four companies working on advanced power devices and critical materials, targeting power-hungry applications such as nuclear fusion and AI data centers.

The biggest share goes to Helion: the nuclear-fusion unicorn will receive $175 million. The logic is rock-solid: without power chips that can withstand high voltage, high frequencies, and high temperatures, the magnetic-confinement systems needed for commercial nuclear fusion simply won’t run—and liquid-cooled power systems for AI clusters won’t be able to handle the soaring power demands of connecting tens of thousands of GPUs.

The deal’s structure is intriguing: the government gets a minority stake, but no control or voting rights. This isn’t nationalization so much as a venture-capital-style “strategic LP” arrangement: the government shares in the upside from technological breakthroughs while leaving the business risks to the market. This completes the narrative arc of the Biden administration’s CHIPS Act, extending from the “computing-power ceiling” of logic chips to the “capability floor” of power chips. The United States is using fiscal leverage to lay an invisible power grid for the next industrial revolution.

SpaceX's website announced its Superintelligence Partner Program, offering partners training, tools, and support. More than 130 companies have received early access. The media noted that the move gives SpaceX an early foothold in the enterprise AI market, helping it catch up with rivals such as OpenAI and Anthropic.

The U.S. Treasury Department dropped major news on Thursday: new rules will prohibit large institutional investors with substantial housing holdings from buying more single-family homes. This is the implementation of the most controversial provision in this summer’s bipartisan housing bill. Under the bill, investors owning 350 or more homes will be barred from purchasing additional single-family homes starting January 7. The 96-page document issued by the Treasury acknowledges that market participants have had little time to prepare: “Given the short implementation period, market participants will need to make rapid decisions concerning home construction, acquisitions, ownership structures, investment arrangements, and compliance systems. We plan to issue the relevant rules in phases.”

The new rules directly target “landlord-style” institutional investors that hoard housing and drive up prices, and could have an immediate effect in easing the housing shortage and stabilizing market sentiment. However, industry insiders also warn that a wave of forced sales could follow in the short term, while compliance costs for affected companies are likely to rise.#USHousing #TreasuryRule #RealEstate

China Adds 23 AI Technologies to Export Controls, Openness Sparks Debate
On October 16, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Science and Technology solicited public comments on revisions to the Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export. For the first time, the catalogue explicitly identifies 23 artificial intelligence technologies, including large models, intelligent agents, computing clusters, and information processing. Some netizens questioned why China, which has long emphasized openness in technology, was suddenly imposing “export restrictions” on AI technologies. Does this signal a policy shift? Reportedly, leading companies such as DeepSeek and MiniMax have completed their registration procedures, while open-source and overseas licensing processes are progressing smoothly. In its responses to questions, the Ministry of Commerce offered substantially more—and more specific—explanations of “what is not regulated” than of “what is regulated.” Experts noted that the catalogue’s main purpose is to define boundaries, not simply to restrict the export of AI technologies, and that it aims to balance openness with security.