疯狂的Jerrick
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疯狂的Jerrick
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Let me explain why this is not good news!
The success of Zhuque-3 is not simply about SpaceX making less money; it’s about weakening the valuation premium the market is willing to pay SpaceX for its “future monopoly/near-monopoly capability.”
We can simplify SpaceX’s valuation using a beginner-friendly model:
Company value ≈
Future profits × Valuation multiple the market is willing to grant
For example:
SpaceX earns in the future: $10 billion per year
The market is willing to pay: 30x
Then:
Valuation = $300 billion
If a competitor appears afterward:
Future profit expectations become:
$8 billion
At the same time, the market believes SpaceX no longer has an absolute monopolistic position, so it only offers: 25x
Then:
Valuation = $250 billion
Notice:
Profits drop by only 20%, but valuation may drop by 33%.
That’s why:
A technological breakthrough can cause stock prices to swing far more than the “real business impact.”
Because what the market trades is future expectations.
When you buy its stock, you’re buying the valuation premium for its future prospects.
Of course, SpaceX really is a great company.
In the past, people might have thought SpaceX’s stock would be worth $300 in two years;
but looking today, SpaceX’s stock might only be worth 280 yuan in two years.
So for SpaceX, this is a negative.
$SPCX
# Zhuque-3 major breakthrough
The success of Zhuque-3 is not simply about SpaceX making less money; it’s about weakening the valuation premium the market is willing to pay SpaceX for its “future monopoly/near-monopoly capability.”
We can simplify SpaceX’s valuation using a beginner-friendly model:
Company value ≈
Future profits × Valuation multiple the market is willing to grant
For example:
SpaceX earns in the future: $10 billion per year
The market is willing to pay: 30x
Then:
Valuation = $300 billion
If a competitor appears afterward:
Future profit expectations become:
$8 billion
At the same time, the market believes SpaceX no longer has an absolute monopolistic position, so it only offers: 25x
Then:
Valuation = $250 billion
Notice:
Profits drop by only 20%, but valuation may drop by 33%.
That’s why:
A technological breakthrough can cause stock prices to swing far more than the “real business impact.”
Because what the market trades is future expectations.
When you buy its stock, you’re buying the valuation premium for its future prospects.
Of course, SpaceX really is a great company.
In the past, people might have thought SpaceX’s stock would be worth $300 in two years;
but looking today, SpaceX’s stock might only be worth 280 yuan in two years.
So for SpaceX, this is a negative.
$SPCX
# Zhuque-3 major breakthrough
月光宝盒快救我
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Isn’t this good news? It shows that more and more capital is betting on the space industry.
Verified
The sharp drop in the memory storage sector last night was something that could be expected to be reflected in South Korea’s reaction this morning.
Lately, the impression has been that whenever Hynix surges, South Korea’s market basically sees a surge at the same “level.”
And when Hynix drops, it signals an index-level decline.
Both big gains and big drops will trigger a suspension of algorithmic trading.
The pause can’t stop the decline;
it only slows the pace of the fall.
It gives retail investors a chance to manually close positions,
so institutions can’t automatically take profit and cut losses through algorithmic trading.
Last night, the US stock storage sector saw a major pullback,
which basically suggests that today South Korean investors will again follow their emotions and smash Hynix into the ground.
If Hynix continues to lead the declines, that would be completely normal.
Although I was repeatedly hurt by storage stocks before.
But yesterday, I still mustered the courage to take Micron back after the first bearish (red) candle.
At the time, I thought Micron was the weakest of them when it was rising,
and I didn’t expect that it would also be the weakest when falling.
But in any case,
it means I got back a bit of my blood.
$SKHYNIX
Today I’ll keep watching.
Lately, the impression has been that whenever Hynix surges, South Korea’s market basically sees a surge at the same “level.”
And when Hynix drops, it signals an index-level decline.
Both big gains and big drops will trigger a suspension of algorithmic trading.
The pause can’t stop the decline;
it only slows the pace of the fall.
It gives retail investors a chance to manually close positions,
so institutions can’t automatically take profit and cut losses through algorithmic trading.
Last night, the US stock storage sector saw a major pullback,
which basically suggests that today South Korean investors will again follow their emotions and smash Hynix into the ground.
If Hynix continues to lead the declines, that would be completely normal.
Although I was repeatedly hurt by storage stocks before.
But yesterday, I still mustered the courage to take Micron back after the first bearish (red) candle.
At the time, I thought Micron was the weakest of them when it was rising,
and I didn’t expect that it would also be the weakest when falling.
But in any case,
it means I got back a bit of my blood.
$SKHYNIX
Today I’ll keep watching.
I added to my position, and went short on SpaceX!
China’s major breakthrough with the “Zhuque-3” rocket is a real, tangible negative for SpaceX.
Add to that SpaceX’s unlock/release tomorrow,
and the potential profit from today’s short could be smoother than you might expect.
This morning I also added to my existing short position.
It’s just that the entry price of my short wasn’t ideal,
so I’m still in an unrealized loss state up to now.
But as long as the news backdrop remains,
I will remain steadfast in holding.
$SPCX
The above is only my personal trading analysis record and does not constitute investment advice.
China’s major breakthrough with the “Zhuque-3” rocket is a real, tangible negative for SpaceX.
Add to that SpaceX’s unlock/release tomorrow,
and the potential profit from today’s short could be smoother than you might expect.
This morning I also added to my existing short position.
It’s just that the entry price of my short wasn’t ideal,
so I’m still in an unrealized loss state up to now.
But as long as the news backdrop remains,
I will remain steadfast in holding.
$SPCX
The above is only my personal trading analysis record and does not constitute investment advice.
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🎙️ Real Trading Challenge: 500U -> $1M, Day 15. How much total capital do we have now?
End
03 h 20 m 56 s
137
NVDAUSDT
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It seems SanDisk is the big brother leading the pack.
With SanDisk just making a move,
all the other little followers have to drop.
Whether it’s the crypto market,
the US stock market,
or the A-share market,
or Hong Kong stocks,
or the Korean stock market—
all of them have to look at SanDisk’s face.
It’s really too strong.
With SanDisk just making a move,
all the other little followers have to drop.
Whether it’s the crypto market,
the US stock market,
or the A-share market,
or Hong Kong stocks,
or the Korean stock market—
all of them have to look at SanDisk’s face.
It’s really too strong.
疯狂的Jerrick
·
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This round of losses from SanDisk should have wiped out quite a number of people.
A few days ago in my post I mentioned: if you’re going to short storage, don’t short SanDisk.
SanDisk is the leader—the big boss.
Everyone’s attention is focused on SanDisk.
Big money, large institutions, and major operators love the big short positions you hold.
Instead, you should short the two followers: MU and SK hynix.
But even so, I was stopped out repeatedly and kept getting hit.
In the past couple of days, my account has been slowly bleeding back too.
That shows that SanDisk is truly strong.
The followers don’t just get some soup—they also get meat to eat.
The earlier post was already beaten into compliance.
Now I’m coming out to repent a bit.
I do see a lot of KOLs who are stubbornly holding onto SanDisk.
Every day they’re atoning for not stopping loss sooner.
But every day they also add to the position and go all in hard.
They’re fighting the market—against human nature.
Sooner or later, you’ll get a loud, dramatic lesson that teaches you.
Every trade must come with a stop loss.
No matter how convinced you are that it’s at the end and should be coming down.
If it really does drop, then add more.
Isn’t that right?
But what if it doesn’t drop?
What if one big bullish candle breaks above the previous high?
How many “what ifs” can your account withstand?
Put yourself in their shoes and think about your own problem.
If I were them, what would I do?
Would I stop out immediately?
I think I would.
I would open trades with stop losses every time—not not using stop losses, endlessly adding to positions to lower the average price, and endlessly praying and panicking.
Of course, what I’m saying here is conditional—“if.”
Because I haven’t reached that big a capital size, maybe I can’t really understand their feelings.
So I’ll repeat the same line: trading basically doesn’t have fewer twists and turns.
If you manage to take fewer wrong turns, you won’t get to where you are.
#存储芯片一夜集体爆发
A few days ago in my post I mentioned: if you’re going to short storage, don’t short SanDisk.
SanDisk is the leader—the big boss.
Everyone’s attention is focused on SanDisk.
Big money, large institutions, and major operators love the big short positions you hold.
Instead, you should short the two followers: MU and SK hynix.
But even so, I was stopped out repeatedly and kept getting hit.
In the past couple of days, my account has been slowly bleeding back too.
That shows that SanDisk is truly strong.
The followers don’t just get some soup—they also get meat to eat.
The earlier post was already beaten into compliance.
Now I’m coming out to repent a bit.
I do see a lot of KOLs who are stubbornly holding onto SanDisk.
Every day they’re atoning for not stopping loss sooner.
But every day they also add to the position and go all in hard.
They’re fighting the market—against human nature.
Sooner or later, you’ll get a loud, dramatic lesson that teaches you.
Every trade must come with a stop loss.
No matter how convinced you are that it’s at the end and should be coming down.
If it really does drop, then add more.
Isn’t that right?
But what if it doesn’t drop?
What if one big bullish candle breaks above the previous high?
How many “what ifs” can your account withstand?
Put yourself in their shoes and think about your own problem.
If I were them, what would I do?
Would I stop out immediately?
I think I would.
I would open trades with stop losses every time—not not using stop losses, endlessly adding to positions to lower the average price, and endlessly praying and panicking.
Of course, what I’m saying here is conditional—“if.”
Because I haven’t reached that big a capital size, maybe I can’t really understand their feelings.
So I’ll repeat the same line: trading basically doesn’t have fewer twists and turns.
If you manage to take fewer wrong turns, you won’t get to where you are.
#存储芯片一夜集体爆发
This round of losses from SanDisk should have wiped out quite a number of people.
A few days ago in my post I mentioned: if you’re going to short storage, don’t short SanDisk.
SanDisk is the leader—the big boss.
Everyone’s attention is focused on SanDisk.
Big money, large institutions, and major operators love the big short positions you hold.
Instead, you should short the two followers: MU and SK hynix.
But even so, I was stopped out repeatedly and kept getting hit.
In the past couple of days, my account has been slowly bleeding back too.
That shows that SanDisk is truly strong.
The followers don’t just get some soup—they also get meat to eat.
The earlier post was already beaten into compliance.
Now I’m coming out to repent a bit.
I do see a lot of KOLs who are stubbornly holding onto SanDisk.
Every day they’re atoning for not stopping loss sooner.
But every day they also add to the position and go all in hard.
They’re fighting the market—against human nature.
Sooner or later, you’ll get a loud, dramatic lesson that teaches you.
Every trade must come with a stop loss.
No matter how convinced you are that it’s at the end and should be coming down.
If it really does drop, then add more.
Isn’t that right?
But what if it doesn’t drop?
What if one big bullish candle breaks above the previous high?
How many “what ifs” can your account withstand?
Put yourself in their shoes and think about your own problem.
If I were them, what would I do?
Would I stop out immediately?
I think I would.
I would open trades with stop losses every time—not not using stop losses, endlessly adding to positions to lower the average price, and endlessly praying and panicking.
Of course, what I’m saying here is conditional—“if.”
Because I haven’t reached that big a capital size, maybe I can’t really understand their feelings.
So I’ll repeat the same line: trading basically doesn’t have fewer twists and turns.
If you manage to take fewer wrong turns, you won’t get to where you are.
#存储芯片一夜集体爆发
A few days ago in my post I mentioned: if you’re going to short storage, don’t short SanDisk.
SanDisk is the leader—the big boss.
Everyone’s attention is focused on SanDisk.
Big money, large institutions, and major operators love the big short positions you hold.
Instead, you should short the two followers: MU and SK hynix.
But even so, I was stopped out repeatedly and kept getting hit.
In the past couple of days, my account has been slowly bleeding back too.
That shows that SanDisk is truly strong.
The followers don’t just get some soup—they also get meat to eat.
The earlier post was already beaten into compliance.
Now I’m coming out to repent a bit.
I do see a lot of KOLs who are stubbornly holding onto SanDisk.
Every day they’re atoning for not stopping loss sooner.
But every day they also add to the position and go all in hard.
They’re fighting the market—against human nature.
Sooner or later, you’ll get a loud, dramatic lesson that teaches you.
Every trade must come with a stop loss.
No matter how convinced you are that it’s at the end and should be coming down.
If it really does drop, then add more.
Isn’t that right?
But what if it doesn’t drop?
What if one big bullish candle breaks above the previous high?
How many “what ifs” can your account withstand?
Put yourself in their shoes and think about your own problem.
If I were them, what would I do?
Would I stop out immediately?
I think I would.
I would open trades with stop losses every time—not not using stop losses, endlessly adding to positions to lower the average price, and endlessly praying and panicking.
Of course, what I’m saying here is conditional—“if.”
Because I haven’t reached that big a capital size, maybe I can’t really understand their feelings.
So I’ll repeat the same line: trading basically doesn’t have fewer twists and turns.
If you manage to take fewer wrong turns, you won’t get to where you are.
#存储芯片一夜集体爆发
Today’s big jump in SpaceX—this was to be expected, but also outside of my plans:
1) Last Friday, the disclosure of large holdings in SpaceX stocks by major investors was actually to set up tonight’s squeeze. For example, Harvard University, Alphabet, Nvidia—those are strong endorsements. Long-term investors are the ones holding large sums; they don’t care about short-term volatility. So today’s rise is also deliberately released by the main players as good news: first, blow up the shorts, and then use the upcoming stock unlock to force another round where the longs hand over their shares. After the bad news lands, then harvest the remaining shorts.
2) When everyone knows that there will be a stock unlock on the 20th, shorting has to choose a relatively good price, and leverage can’t be too high.
3) I set my stop-loss at 150. In fact, I know that if it breaks above 150, it will most likely just poke up a bit (like a pin) and then continue falling. But for now I’m controlling risk more and not fighting the market. Because after it breaks 150, you don’t know how far it will go. Even low-probability events are still probabilities—many large amounts of money have been lost this way.
Also, I’ve stopped out all my BTC short positions, and the stored short positions.
The stored position is completely against the trend,
and even if the “small弟” is opened as a short, it’s still a position against the trend.
Also, earlier today, the A-share sector for stored/“存储” had a huge bullish candle. Now it looks like holding shorts on stored really doesn’t have much logic anymore—
it seems like in the past half month, there hasn’t been any money made on stored at all.
This should be recorded. To deepen the memory.
The above is only my personal analysis notes and does not constitute any investment advice.
$SKHYNIX $BTC
1) Last Friday, the disclosure of large holdings in SpaceX stocks by major investors was actually to set up tonight’s squeeze. For example, Harvard University, Alphabet, Nvidia—those are strong endorsements. Long-term investors are the ones holding large sums; they don’t care about short-term volatility. So today’s rise is also deliberately released by the main players as good news: first, blow up the shorts, and then use the upcoming stock unlock to force another round where the longs hand over their shares. After the bad news lands, then harvest the remaining shorts.
2) When everyone knows that there will be a stock unlock on the 20th, shorting has to choose a relatively good price, and leverage can’t be too high.
3) I set my stop-loss at 150. In fact, I know that if it breaks above 150, it will most likely just poke up a bit (like a pin) and then continue falling. But for now I’m controlling risk more and not fighting the market. Because after it breaks 150, you don’t know how far it will go. Even low-probability events are still probabilities—many large amounts of money have been lost this way.
Also, I’ve stopped out all my BTC short positions, and the stored short positions.
The stored position is completely against the trend,
and even if the “small弟” is opened as a short, it’s still a position against the trend.
Also, earlier today, the A-share sector for stored/“存储” had a huge bullish candle. Now it looks like holding shorts on stored really doesn’t have much logic anymore—
it seems like in the past half month, there hasn’t been any money made on stored at all.
This should be recorded. To deepen the memory.
The above is only my personal analysis notes and does not constitute any investment advice.
$SKHYNIX $BTC
疯狂的Jerrick
·
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BearishEveryone around the world knows that SpaceX is set to release 320 million shares to the market this week, and the previous round of share unlocks has already proven that the unlock landing is a positive catalyst.
This time, it will be a “chip pressure test day,” and it may be different:
1) The reason the first round of unlocks could rally so high is that many big institutions, large financial groups, and big companies were waiting to buy at lower prices to allocate SpaceX into their funds or reserves according to their respective plans. But by the time of the second unlock, these large institutions may already have been configured/allocated to a large extent. So after the second round of unlocks, the real buy-side demand may not be as疯狂 as it was in the first round.
2) From expectations alone, stock unlocks have always been a negative message until the actual event lands. This time it will definitely be accompanied by a pullback, and the size of that pullback will determine investors’ outlook for what comes next. Personally, the shallower the pullback, the more violently the stock will rise after the negative is absorbed.
3) Compared with the previous unlock: before the stock unlock, the night before—before the earnings report was released—SpaceX’s stock went through a frenzy “short squeeze” surge. After the earnings report’s good news was released, a big bearish candle (a long red candle) directly signaled a smooth downturn. Then, once the stock unlock actually landed, Spacex successfully completed a second dip and turned around, and that’s when a smooth uptrend began. This time, there’s inevitably going to be a short-squeeze-like move as well; but this time, there won’t be any earnings report good news as a catalyst, so the upside is relatively limited—most likely staying below 149.
4) Around the stock unlock, there will be two Starlink launch missions. If they succeed, it’s standard procedure. But if there’s any abnormality or failure, it will further amplify the negative sentiment from the stock unlock.
In terms of operations: personally, before the stock unlock lands, I won’t chase longs on any rise; instead, I think it may be an opportunity to attempt shorting. After the stock unlock lands, I’ll decide whether to go long based on the situation, rather than short.
$SPCX
#SpaceX股价涨至140美元
This time, it will be a “chip pressure test day,” and it may be different:
1) The reason the first round of unlocks could rally so high is that many big institutions, large financial groups, and big companies were waiting to buy at lower prices to allocate SpaceX into their funds or reserves according to their respective plans. But by the time of the second unlock, these large institutions may already have been configured/allocated to a large extent. So after the second round of unlocks, the real buy-side demand may not be as疯狂 as it was in the first round.
2) From expectations alone, stock unlocks have always been a negative message until the actual event lands. This time it will definitely be accompanied by a pullback, and the size of that pullback will determine investors’ outlook for what comes next. Personally, the shallower the pullback, the more violently the stock will rise after the negative is absorbed.
3) Compared with the previous unlock: before the stock unlock, the night before—before the earnings report was released—SpaceX’s stock went through a frenzy “short squeeze” surge. After the earnings report’s good news was released, a big bearish candle (a long red candle) directly signaled a smooth downturn. Then, once the stock unlock actually landed, Spacex successfully completed a second dip and turned around, and that’s when a smooth uptrend began. This time, there’s inevitably going to be a short-squeeze-like move as well; but this time, there won’t be any earnings report good news as a catalyst, so the upside is relatively limited—most likely staying below 149.
4) Around the stock unlock, there will be two Starlink launch missions. If they succeed, it’s standard procedure. But if there’s any abnormality or failure, it will further amplify the negative sentiment from the stock unlock.
In terms of operations: personally, before the stock unlock lands, I won’t chase longs on any rise; instead, I think it may be an opportunity to attempt shorting. After the stock unlock lands, I’ll decide whether to go long based on the situation, rather than short.
$SPCX
#SpaceX股价涨至140美元
Bullish, this asshole, can it reach 0.1? I set my take profit at 0.1!
I also only started following it yesterday. Because yesterday was basically the second day after the breakout. I just felt that this MEME is the first coin that has really gotten popular on the BSC chain recently. Personally, I don’t think it’ll just die off that quickly!
If we want the market to heat up again, we need a narrative and a coin with a strong profit effect to lead the way!
Bullish—maybe it is, and it’s only the first season!
There’ll be a second season, and a third season afterward!
Of course, this also needs Bitcoin to cooperate. If at this time Bitcoin comes with another daily-chart-level big bullish candle, then it’s over—altcoin MEME season is starting!
I also only started following it yesterday. Because yesterday was basically the second day after the breakout. I just felt that this MEME is the first coin that has really gotten popular on the BSC chain recently. Personally, I don’t think it’ll just die off that quickly!
If we want the market to heat up again, we need a narrative and a coin with a strong profit effect to lead the way!
Bullish—maybe it is, and it’s only the first season!
There’ll be a second season, and a third season afterward!
Of course, this also needs Bitcoin to cooperate. If at this time Bitcoin comes with another daily-chart-level big bullish candle, then it’s over—altcoin MEME season is starting!
Everyone around the world knows that SpaceX is set to release 320 million shares to the market this week, and the previous round of share unlocks has already proven that the unlock landing is a positive catalyst.
This time, it will be a “chip pressure test day,” and it may be different:
1) The reason the first round of unlocks could rally so high is that many big institutions, large financial groups, and big companies were waiting to buy at lower prices to allocate SpaceX into their funds or reserves according to their respective plans. But by the time of the second unlock, these large institutions may already have been configured/allocated to a large extent. So after the second round of unlocks, the real buy-side demand may not be as疯狂 as it was in the first round.
2) From expectations alone, stock unlocks have always been a negative message until the actual event lands. This time it will definitely be accompanied by a pullback, and the size of that pullback will determine investors’ outlook for what comes next. Personally, the shallower the pullback, the more violently the stock will rise after the negative is absorbed.
3) Compared with the previous unlock: before the stock unlock, the night before—before the earnings report was released—SpaceX’s stock went through a frenzy “short squeeze” surge. After the earnings report’s good news was released, a big bearish candle (a long red candle) directly signaled a smooth downturn. Then, once the stock unlock actually landed, Spacex successfully completed a second dip and turned around, and that’s when a smooth uptrend began. This time, there’s inevitably going to be a short-squeeze-like move as well; but this time, there won’t be any earnings report good news as a catalyst, so the upside is relatively limited—most likely staying below 149.
4) Around the stock unlock, there will be two Starlink launch missions. If they succeed, it’s standard procedure. But if there’s any abnormality or failure, it will further amplify the negative sentiment from the stock unlock.
In terms of operations: personally, before the stock unlock lands, I won’t chase longs on any rise; instead, I think it may be an opportunity to attempt shorting. After the stock unlock lands, I’ll decide whether to go long based on the situation, rather than short.
$SPCX
#SpaceX股价涨至140美元
This time, it will be a “chip pressure test day,” and it may be different:
1) The reason the first round of unlocks could rally so high is that many big institutions, large financial groups, and big companies were waiting to buy at lower prices to allocate SpaceX into their funds or reserves according to their respective plans. But by the time of the second unlock, these large institutions may already have been configured/allocated to a large extent. So after the second round of unlocks, the real buy-side demand may not be as疯狂 as it was in the first round.
2) From expectations alone, stock unlocks have always been a negative message until the actual event lands. This time it will definitely be accompanied by a pullback, and the size of that pullback will determine investors’ outlook for what comes next. Personally, the shallower the pullback, the more violently the stock will rise after the negative is absorbed.
3) Compared with the previous unlock: before the stock unlock, the night before—before the earnings report was released—SpaceX’s stock went through a frenzy “short squeeze” surge. After the earnings report’s good news was released, a big bearish candle (a long red candle) directly signaled a smooth downturn. Then, once the stock unlock actually landed, Spacex successfully completed a second dip and turned around, and that’s when a smooth uptrend began. This time, there’s inevitably going to be a short-squeeze-like move as well; but this time, there won’t be any earnings report good news as a catalyst, so the upside is relatively limited—most likely staying below 149.
4) Around the stock unlock, there will be two Starlink launch missions. If they succeed, it’s standard procedure. But if there’s any abnormality or failure, it will further amplify the negative sentiment from the stock unlock.
In terms of operations: personally, before the stock unlock lands, I won’t chase longs on any rise; instead, I think it may be an opportunity to attempt shorting. After the stock unlock lands, I’ll decide whether to go long based on the situation, rather than short.
$SPCX
#SpaceX股价涨至140美元
疯狂的Jerrick
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SpaceX 8·14 anomalous signal: 14 news flashes, 7 major institutions openly signaling, and once the acquisition was completed it dropped 3%—what are the fund managers thinking？
SpaceX 8·14 anomalous signal: 14 news flashes, 7 major institutions openly signaling, and once the acquisition was completed it dropped 3%—what are the fund managers thinking?
I didn’t talk about SpaceX in the previous post; I saved it specifically for here because its performance yesterday (August 14) was simply too unusual. Let me share a few of the anomalies I observed:
1. News feed spam frequency is abnormally high: According to data from Jin 10, on August 14 throughout the day, SpaceX was mentioned 14 times (excluding duplicate reposts). How high is this frequency? For comparison: on the same day, Nvidia was mentioned only 10 times, and SanDisk 7 times (SanDisk was mentioned 11 times on the 13th, and its share price rose 15% that day). SpaceX’s visibility is clearly out of the ordinary.
I didn’t talk about SpaceX in the previous post; I saved it specifically for here because its performance yesterday (August 14) was simply too unusual. Let me share a few of the anomalies I observed:
1. News feed spam frequency is abnormally high: According to data from Jin 10, on August 14 throughout the day, SpaceX was mentioned 14 times (excluding duplicate reposts). How high is this frequency? For comparison: on the same day, Nvidia was mentioned only 10 times, and SanDisk 7 times (SanDisk was mentioned 11 times on the 13th, and its share price rose 15% that day). SpaceX’s visibility is clearly out of the ordinary.
Because I’m holding short positions on SK Hynix and Micron, I’m more concerned about the future price trend of SNDK, as well as the major news/events for these three names in the coming week and the possible expectations.
So I asked ChatGPT whether there would be any major events for these three names in the next week.
The answer I got was that there aren’t any.
Then I started thinking: if SanDisk keeps breaking higher from this level, where would the logic driving the rally come from?
The only two points I can think of are:
1) The US stock market continues to be strong, and Nasdaq and the S&P 500 keep pushing higher in terms of highs.
But from a technical perspective, the earlier level of resistance is still fairly obvious. To break through in one go is relatively difficult, so I’m more inclined to think it will continue to trade in a range. If it does break through, it’s very likely to also trigger another wave in semiconductors/storage, continuing the “storage rally” myth.
2) If any one of the three names gets a sudden positive catalyst, it could potentially drive all three to continue pushing higher in terms of highs.
As for the US market, I believe everyone here knows that once it starts rising, it doesn’t really stop for much—there’s a good chance it could be a one-way move and not come back. So in terms of execution, you definitely need to include a stop-loss that you can tolerate. Then just wait for the market to reveal its own direction.
The above is only my personal trading analysis notes and does not constitute any investment advice.
#SEC审查6只3倍杠杆商品ETF $SNDK
So I asked ChatGPT whether there would be any major events for these three names in the next week.
The answer I got was that there aren’t any.
Then I started thinking: if SanDisk keeps breaking higher from this level, where would the logic driving the rally come from?
The only two points I can think of are:
1) The US stock market continues to be strong, and Nasdaq and the S&P 500 keep pushing higher in terms of highs.
But from a technical perspective, the earlier level of resistance is still fairly obvious. To break through in one go is relatively difficult, so I’m more inclined to think it will continue to trade in a range. If it does break through, it’s very likely to also trigger another wave in semiconductors/storage, continuing the “storage rally” myth.
2) If any one of the three names gets a sudden positive catalyst, it could potentially drive all three to continue pushing higher in terms of highs.
As for the US market, I believe everyone here knows that once it starts rising, it doesn’t really stop for much—there’s a good chance it could be a one-way move and not come back. So in terms of execution, you definitely need to include a stop-loss that you can tolerate. Then just wait for the market to reveal its own direction.
The above is only my personal trading analysis notes and does not constitute any investment advice.
#SEC审查6只3倍杠杆商品ETF $SNDK
If it were said that today is Sunday and that’s why the liquidity of US stock futures contracts is so weak, I could understand that.
But take a look at our previous 24/7 BTC and Ethereum.
It’s really quite heartbreaking.
Even on Binance—the world’s largest exchange—the BTC candlestick chart is almost like chopsticks; it’s become jagged.
This volatility, this liquidity.
It’s really not just a run-of-the-mill dead calm,
but at the same time it’s also telling us
that even greater volatility may be coming right away.
The long consolidation at high levels for BTC is also nearing its end.
Will it go up or down?
Personally, I think if it doesn’t move down first and then goes straight up,
then it won’t be able to run far.
So we must first see a long 4-hour lower wick,
so that there will be plenty of room for a big rise and a big profit.
On Friday, I went short on SK hynix and MU. The trading logic was that the 60% rally in SanDisk would have a technical pullback.
But judging from the two days of candlestick patterns over the weekend, US stocks are still too bullish.
SanDisk is still too bullish.
Even the follower coins can hold sideways.
I’m genuinely impressed.
However, in my opinion, even if SanDisk doesn’t pull back, SK hynix and MU will still pull back a bit.
Whether it will result in me getting stopped out—I guess we’ll wait and see.
$SKHYNIX
But take a look at our previous 24/7 BTC and Ethereum.
It’s really quite heartbreaking.
Even on Binance—the world’s largest exchange—the BTC candlestick chart is almost like chopsticks; it’s become jagged.
This volatility, this liquidity.
It’s really not just a run-of-the-mill dead calm,
but at the same time it’s also telling us
that even greater volatility may be coming right away.
The long consolidation at high levels for BTC is also nearing its end.
Will it go up or down?
Personally, I think if it doesn’t move down first and then goes straight up,
then it won’t be able to run far.
So we must first see a long 4-hour lower wick,
so that there will be plenty of room for a big rise and a big profit.
On Friday, I went short on SK hynix and MU. The trading logic was that the 60% rally in SanDisk would have a technical pullback.
But judging from the two days of candlestick patterns over the weekend, US stocks are still too bullish.
SanDisk is still too bullish.
Even the follower coins can hold sideways.
I’m genuinely impressed.
However, in my opinion, even if SanDisk doesn’t pull back, SK hynix and MU will still pull back a bit.
Whether it will result in me getting stopped out—I guess we’ll wait and see.
$SKHYNIX
疯狂的Jerrick
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BearishETF资金在加密货币市场出现了一个相当罕见的情景。
1.昨日加密货币总ETF资金净流入为-0.7M美元，为近90天的第二低（也可能是近360天内的第二低，其他更久的情况我就没有再细查）。上一次出现小于1M的净流入资金也发生在最近一段时间内：7月29日，当时的净流入只有-0.21M。
2.上一次出现这种小于1M的单日ETF资金流入之后，币价其实并没有太大影响，市场仍然继续震荡。但这一次发生在连续下跌的过程中，是否预示着即将出现下一轮较大波动，目前还不确定。只是从各方面迹象来看，反弹非常弱势；下跌倒是很顺畅，也没有特别大的利空，亦没有特别大的利多。只有等到实际跌破62000之后，可能会迎来一波多头的清洗，最终带来一轮更大幅度的下跌。下一个关口看58000。
2.由此可见，加密货币市场的流动性确实已经枯竭。一方面受到美股流动性的冲击，另一方面也受到加密货币熊市的影响。在资金偏好方面，大资金更看好那些有实际公司的合规美股，而不是选择加密货币。
3.昨日还有一个有趣的现象：只有BTC出现了净流出资金，但其他主流币（ETH,HYPE,SOL,XRP）都没有出现净流入资金。这也同样非常罕见。
现在是周末，流动性会进一步缩小，震荡也会进一步收敛。我昨晚已经把BCH、XRP、BTC的空单平掉了，然后今天早上又接回了XRP、BCH的空单。
关于存储（存储板块/个股）：今早我又看了一下存储三傻。按照上一次帖子的预期，SNDK再次创出近期新高；而SKHYNIX、MU并没有继续打开上方空间（没有继续拉升高度）。这就是做空不要做“最强的那个”，所以我又加仓了点MU，继续拿着看看吧。
以上仅是个人交易分析记录，不构成任何投资建议。
#全球股市逼近历史高位 $MU
1.昨日加密货币总ETF资金净流入为-0.7M美元，为近90天的第二低（也可能是近360天内的第二低，其他更久的情况我就没有再细查）。上一次出现小于1M的净流入资金也发生在最近一段时间内：7月29日，当时的净流入只有-0.21M。
2.上一次出现这种小于1M的单日ETF资金流入之后，币价其实并没有太大影响，市场仍然继续震荡。但这一次发生在连续下跌的过程中，是否预示着即将出现下一轮较大波动，目前还不确定。只是从各方面迹象来看，反弹非常弱势；下跌倒是很顺畅，也没有特别大的利空，亦没有特别大的利多。只有等到实际跌破62000之后，可能会迎来一波多头的清洗，最终带来一轮更大幅度的下跌。下一个关口看58000。
2.由此可见，加密货币市场的流动性确实已经枯竭。一方面受到美股流动性的冲击，另一方面也受到加密货币熊市的影响。在资金偏好方面，大资金更看好那些有实际公司的合规美股，而不是选择加密货币。
3.昨日还有一个有趣的现象：只有BTC出现了净流出资金，但其他主流币（ETH,HYPE,SOL,XRP）都没有出现净流入资金。这也同样非常罕见。
现在是周末，流动性会进一步缩小，震荡也会进一步收敛。我昨晚已经把BCH、XRP、BTC的空单平掉了，然后今天早上又接回了XRP、BCH的空单。
关于存储（存储板块/个股）：今早我又看了一下存储三傻。按照上一次帖子的预期，SNDK再次创出近期新高；而SKHYNIX、MU并没有继续打开上方空间（没有继续拉升高度）。这就是做空不要做“最强的那个”，所以我又加仓了点MU，继续拿着看看吧。
以上仅是个人交易分析记录，不构成任何投资建议。
#全球股市逼近历史高位 $MU
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🎙️ Real Account Challenge: 500U -> 1M, how much total capital do we have now?
End
05 h 18 m 43 s
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ANTHROPICUSDT
Perp
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ETF资金在加密货币市场出现了一个相当罕见的情景。
1.昨日加密货币总ETF资金净流入为-0.7M美元，为近90天的第二低（也可能是近360天内的第二低，其他更久的情况我就没有再细查）。上一次出现小于1M的净流入资金也发生在最近一段时间内：7月29日，当时的净流入只有-0.21M。
2.上一次出现这种小于1M的单日ETF资金流入之后，币价其实并没有太大影响，市场仍然继续震荡。但这一次发生在连续下跌的过程中，是否预示着即将出现下一轮较大波动，目前还不确定。只是从各方面迹象来看，反弹非常弱势；下跌倒是很顺畅，也没有特别大的利空，亦没有特别大的利多。只有等到实际跌破62000之后，可能会迎来一波多头的清洗，最终带来一轮更大幅度的下跌。下一个关口看58000。
2.由此可见，加密货币市场的流动性确实已经枯竭。一方面受到美股流动性的冲击，另一方面也受到加密货币熊市的影响。在资金偏好方面，大资金更看好那些有实际公司的合规美股，而不是选择加密货币。
3.昨日还有一个有趣的现象：只有BTC出现了净流出资金，但其他主流币（ETH,HYPE,SOL,XRP）都没有出现净流入资金。这也同样非常罕见。
现在是周末，流动性会进一步缩小，震荡也会进一步收敛。我昨晚已经把BCH、XRP、BTC的空单平掉了，然后今天早上又接回了XRP、BCH的空单。
关于存储（存储板块/个股）：今早我又看了一下存储三傻。按照上一次帖子的预期，SNDK再次创出近期新高；而SKHYNIX、MU并没有继续打开上方空间（没有继续拉升高度）。这就是做空不要做“最强的那个”，所以我又加仓了点MU，继续拿着看看吧。
以上仅是个人交易分析记录，不构成任何投资建议。
#全球股市逼近历史高位 $MU
1.昨日加密货币总ETF资金净流入为-0.7M美元，为近90天的第二低（也可能是近360天内的第二低，其他更久的情况我就没有再细查）。上一次出现小于1M的净流入资金也发生在最近一段时间内：7月29日，当时的净流入只有-0.21M。
2.上一次出现这种小于1M的单日ETF资金流入之后，币价其实并没有太大影响，市场仍然继续震荡。但这一次发生在连续下跌的过程中，是否预示着即将出现下一轮较大波动，目前还不确定。只是从各方面迹象来看，反弹非常弱势；下跌倒是很顺畅，也没有特别大的利空，亦没有特别大的利多。只有等到实际跌破62000之后，可能会迎来一波多头的清洗，最终带来一轮更大幅度的下跌。下一个关口看58000。
2.由此可见，加密货币市场的流动性确实已经枯竭。一方面受到美股流动性的冲击，另一方面也受到加密货币熊市的影响。在资金偏好方面，大资金更看好那些有实际公司的合规美股，而不是选择加密货币。
3.昨日还有一个有趣的现象：只有BTC出现了净流出资金，但其他主流币（ETH,HYPE,SOL,XRP）都没有出现净流入资金。这也同样非常罕见。
现在是周末，流动性会进一步缩小，震荡也会进一步收敛。我昨晚已经把BCH、XRP、BTC的空单平掉了，然后今天早上又接回了XRP、BCH的空单。
关于存储（存储板块/个股）：今早我又看了一下存储三傻。按照上一次帖子的预期，SNDK再次创出近期新高；而SKHYNIX、MU并没有继续打开上方空间（没有继续拉升高度）。这就是做空不要做“最强的那个”，所以我又加仓了点MU，继续拿着看看吧。
以上仅是个人交易分析记录，不构成任何投资建议。
#全球股市逼近历史高位 $MU
Took profit on my short positions in BTC and BCH, and kept a small stop-loss on XRP.
The reason is that there’s no bearish news to provide momentum. BTC will only keep consolidating and drifting downward, and it’s unlikely to make a big upward move all at once.
So I closed those positions for now, and will look for a better entry to short again later.
I also shorted SK HYNIX and MU. The reasons are:
1) These two stocks were pulled up entirely by SNDK.
They’re follow-the-leader stocks,
more like “subsidiaries.”
2) Also, the S&P and Nasdaq indices are both in a pullback.
3) And SNDK has reached a relatively major resistance level.
A drop under pressure is more likely.
So I won’t choose to short SNDK,
but instead I’ll short the “subsidiaries.”
If SanDisk pulls back, the subsidiaries’ pullback volatility should be a bit larger.
The reason is that there’s no bearish news to provide momentum. BTC will only keep consolidating and drifting downward, and it’s unlikely to make a big upward move all at once.
So I closed those positions for now, and will look for a better entry to short again later.
I also shorted SK HYNIX and MU. The reasons are:
1) These two stocks were pulled up entirely by SNDK.
They’re follow-the-leader stocks,
more like “subsidiaries.”
2) Also, the S&P and Nasdaq indices are both in a pullback.
3) And SNDK has reached a relatively major resistance level.
A drop under pressure is more likely.
So I won’t choose to short SNDK,
but instead I’ll short the “subsidiaries.”
If SanDisk pulls back, the subsidiaries’ pullback volatility should be a bit larger.
疯狂的Jerrick
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BearishToday I watched the BTC chart all day. Weakness is its personality.
Tonight, what’s relatively consistent is that CRCL and MSTR’s prices were also dragged down by BTC.
So if earlier these past two days BTC might not have had enough downside momentum,
then tonight BTC’s downside momentum will be even more ruthless.
Other major coins are also catching up on the decline.
With this kind of setup,
I can’t think of any reason it could still rise.
It’s only that if there isn’t a strong bad-news catalyst, it can only keep going in this steady, grinding downtrend.
That’s the situation.
Next, the plan is to shift into defense around the cost basis—then we just watch.
$BTC
Tonight, what’s relatively consistent is that CRCL and MSTR’s prices were also dragged down by BTC.
So if earlier these past two days BTC might not have had enough downside momentum,
then tonight BTC’s downside momentum will be even more ruthless.
Other major coins are also catching up on the decline.
With this kind of setup,
I can’t think of any reason it could still rise.
It’s only that if there isn’t a strong bad-news catalyst, it can only keep going in this steady, grinding downtrend.
That’s the situation.
Next, the plan is to shift into defense around the cost basis—then we just watch.
$BTC
Today I watched the BTC chart all day. Weakness is its personality.
Tonight, what’s relatively consistent is that CRCL and MSTR’s prices were also dragged down by BTC.
So if earlier these past two days BTC might not have had enough downside momentum,
then tonight BTC’s downside momentum will be even more ruthless.
Other major coins are also catching up on the decline.
With this kind of setup,
I can’t think of any reason it could still rise.
It’s only that if there isn’t a strong bad-news catalyst, it can only keep going in this steady, grinding downtrend.
That’s the situation.
Next, the plan is to shift into defense around the cost basis—then we just watch.
$BTC
Tonight, what’s relatively consistent is that CRCL and MSTR’s prices were also dragged down by BTC.
So if earlier these past two days BTC might not have had enough downside momentum,
then tonight BTC’s downside momentum will be even more ruthless.
Other major coins are also catching up on the decline.
With this kind of setup,
I can’t think of any reason it could still rise.
It’s only that if there isn’t a strong bad-news catalyst, it can only keep going in this steady, grinding downtrend.
That’s the situation.
Next, the plan is to shift into defense around the cost basis—then we just watch.
$BTC
疯狂的Jerrick
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Let me share some of my personal views on gold, the crypto market, the storage sector, and the Musk concept
Let me share some of my personal views on gold, the crypto market, the storage sector, and the Musk concept:
1. Gold concept:
As I said in the previous post, gold should be one of the more promising opportunities in recent times. Since it has already broken through the daily-level consolidation range, the next step is to go long again after pullbacks to the upper edge of the range. Then people who don’t have much time to watch the charts can just hold. I took profit on my small-position long trades at the prices of gold 4420 and silver 65.83. Next, I’ll just wait for a pullback to find a good entry and go long again.
2. The encrypted market:
1. Gold concept:
As I said in the previous post, gold should be one of the more promising opportunities in recent times. Since it has already broken through the daily-level consolidation range, the next step is to go long again after pullbacks to the upper edge of the range. Then people who don’t have much time to watch the charts can just hold. I took profit on my small-position long trades at the prices of gold 4420 and silver 65.83. Next, I’ll just wait for a pullback to find a good entry and go long again.
2. The encrypted market:
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🎙️ Live Trading Challenge: 500U -> 1M, Day12. Current balance: 960U.
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02 h 58 m 25 s
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