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Strategy did not buy Bitcoin last week. Instead, it repurchased 1.8 million STRC shares, spending about $176.3 million. $BTC holdings remained at 845050 units, with total principal of 63.6 billion and an average cost of 75412. Where did this $176 million come from? It still came from continuously issuing $MSTR shares and diluting shareholders. The problem is: over the past few months, they have used many methods to try to push STRC back to $100 per share, but it is still stuck around $97 and has not been able to rise for several weeks. Originally, STRC was a tool designed to help them raise funds to buy coins, but now it has instead become something that relies on selling MSTR and diluting shareholders to save STRC — this is already somewhat putting the cart before the horse.

A good reminder: I only noticed last Friday that the contract end started showing signs of retail chasing after it pushed up again—when $BTC had already pulled more than $20,000, and retail was just starting to get excited and jump in. So what happened? It immediately took out a short-term wick—every long that just got in was swept away. Ever since these new Wall Street whales gained a firm grip on pricing power, the difficulty of this market will only keep rising: you don’t just have to watch what this group of big whales is doing—you also have to make sure you don’t crowd too many retail traders into the same trade. So understanding these data matters more and more. Also, here’s a more fundamental reminder: first figure out what trading cycle you’re actually in—if your target is 300,000 to 400,000 per unit but you can’t even tolerate short-term fluctuations of a few thousand dollars, then even if you buy the bottom at 57,000, and even through countless bullish pullbacks in the next bull market, you’ll still easily lose your position.

Review one data point: on the 19th, just before this wave of breakout, spot demand showed its first reversal in nearly six months—starting to sprout. And the latest situation is very similar to that big surge in 2023 when price broke upward over the spot demand: back then, spot demand clearly rushed in as price broke above; when it was pulled to around 24,000, demand slowed down. After oscillating for two or three weeks, there was a pullback—whose key level met exactly the most important pivot for the early bull stage: the 365-day moving average and the 50-week moving average, which were both clustered around 25,000 at the time. Comparing that to today’s $BTC , the position and structure are almost the same script. So the most worth expecting right now is that it can trend in a downward oscillation and carve out a base around the mid-80,000s, with the timeline reaching roughly the end of the year—at which point it may likely form a stair-step rally. You can also interpret it as a bull flag or a larger-period head-and-shoulders bottom. The odds of these scenarios are all far higher than a fresh drop back to 60,000, or a massive consolidation range between 60,000 and 80,000 followed by a final decline.

A little earlier, when it dipped, many people asked nervously: Is it about to crash? Will it drop all the way back to 60,000? After a surge of another $20,000, the market consolidated; plus this bear market has kicked off three months early, the major inflation data coming this Friday, and the interest rate decision next Wednesday—having fear of missing out is completely normal. But don’t forget: the first time the price broke upward on heavy volume, I already said that 83,000 is simply a place where multiple key levels overlap. The most likely retracement zone—$BTC —is between 83,000 and 85,000. If we’re retracing there now, it’s normal, healthy, and entirely within expectations.

The past few days have been interesting: when the price rises a bit, the question becomes, “Am I too late?” When it dips a bit, the question turns into, “Is it going to collapse back to 60,000?” Many influencers are the same too. They originally called for a crash from 60,000 down to 30,000 or 40,000; after the price climbed, when it retraced again, they started shouting that it would fall back to 60,000. The early stage of a bull run is where fear is easiest to trigger—but often it’s exactly this kind of psychology that makes people miss the very first phase, and the best opportunity.

$BTC Last week it hit more than 82,000—meaning the 365-day moving average was blocked on the first attempt. After a brief consolidation around 79,000, another pullback came earlier. Now it has fallen back below the 79,000 line. The short-term read is simple: to keep pushing upward—perhaps even making a higher high again—the price must stay above 79,000. Once it closes below, it will first revert back into the trading range between 76,000 and 79,000. And as for the key moving averages the market is watching most closely—they’re all clustered near the prior high around 83,000, so meeting resistance here is completely normal. So yes, it really is possible for it to pull back before making a higher high. But what matters more is this: the spot market has already seen an explosive volume surge, and it has pierced through the average cost line of short-term holders. Even if this time doesn’t create a new high, this is still a clear signal that the trend has flipped and that the bear market has officially ended.

Big news: In 2027, Ethereum will let users pay transaction fees directly with stablecoins, without needing to hold $ETH . At first glance, this sounds like bad news—does it mean ETH is being used less?—but on closer inspection, it’s actually good news. The current pain point is this: new users set up a wallet, want to use only stablecoins, but find there’s no extra ETH to pay gas, so the wallet literally can’t move. Under the new proposal, the payment app can cover the transaction fees itself, or take the user’s stablecoins and settle the user’s ETH bill on their behalf—the key here is: at the Ethereum base layer, Ether is still received, and the network is still being used; it’s just that users no longer need to personally go buy it. Removing friction and increasing usage is a big step forward for Ethereum’s usability.

Cathie Wood’s explanation for why ARK is still heavily bullish on $BTC in September 2026, all made clear in just a minute and a half—there are three points. First, the ratio of Bitcoin to gold appears to have reached a turning point: it’s breaking out, and the correlation between the two is at a historical low. They believe this ratio will continue rising to a new all-time high; if their view on inflation is correct, the pressure on gold would actually ease. Second, Bitcoin is the convergence of three revolutions: a technological revolution, a new global monetary system, and the first member of a new asset class—so it “still has a long way to go.” Third, the most interesting one: Bitcoin is both a risk-on and a risk-off asset. This technological revolution will put many companies at risk; once counterparty risk shows up in the economy, the ones that benefit will be the two insurance policies—Bitcoin and gold.

On this weekend, Citi and DBS completed the first tokenized cross-border transfer on Swift’s digital ledger—on Saturday, directly between Singapore and the United States, bank-to-bank. Compared with traditional Swift transfers that require two business days, DBS says this is a major improvement over industry practice. Swift only announced that its blockchain ledger was ready in July this year. Less than two months later, the first live test is already underway. The first round of participating banks includes 17 of the world’s major institutions: Citi, DBS, HSBC, BNP Paribas, UBS, ANZ, and Standard Chartered are all on the list. DBS is also co-building its own cross-border blockchain system with JP Morgan. Anyone who has used $USDT and $USDC to make payments with stablecoins knows this: once you’ve used on-chain transfers, you won’t go back to the traditional banking system. Over the next few years, this will gradually become the primary medium for cross-border transfers between countries and between banks.

$ZEC In the past week, it quietly rose another 45%, setting a new high since 2016. It even surged to around $1,250 per coin. Its market cap has exceeded 20 billion, and after setting a new high, it fell slightly today by more than 5%. Zcash is a privacy project championed by many big names—Gemini’s twin founders frequently promote it on X, and Arthur Hayes often talks about it too. But a reminder: when many big figures are all pushing the same project, it’s often a dangerous signal. To get very good returns from this point onward, the opportunities are already limited. What’s truly worth paying attention to is the message it represents: the privacy-coin market is extremely strong. Zcash is a bit like Bitcoin within the privacy sector, while Midnight in the $ADA ecosystem is a fully private ecosystem—there are many things it can do that Zcash can’t. If the privacy sector can set new highs again in this market, that indirectly indicates Midnight’s future flexibility and potential, with almost no ceiling.

Today is Labor Day in the U.S., so the stock market is closed and cryptocurrency trading volumes are very low—but the buyers haven’t taken a day off. In France, Bitcoin Treasury Company, Capital B—backed by OG Adam Back—quietly DCA’d another 376 units of $BTC last week. That’s worth about €25 million, which translates to roughly $28 million to $30 million. Total holdings have now reached 3,521 units. The company’s style has always been like this: no noise, no fuss—adding a batch every so often and keeping the buying going nonstop. Another observation: earlier today on Michael Saylor’s X, he didn’t share any charts from the Saylor Tracker. Whether last week’s Strategy actually came back to buy more Bitcoin—or whether they again hoarded cash assets—will be revealed tomorrow.

An interesting divergence is unfolding on $BTC : the 4-hour funding rate has broken out into a negative trend, yet the price is slowly grinding higher—this suggests that leveraged long positions are exiting the market, while the price is being supported by the spot market, which is a rather bullish signal. But the real big decision this month happens this Thursday, September 11th, with the CPI inflation report: it’s just 4 days away from the FOMC meeting, and for now the decision on whether to keep raising rates remains a 50/50 coin toss. The script is straightforward—if CPI comes in hotter than expected, Bitcoin will most likely drop hard; if CPI comes in cooler, the Fed has a reason to avoid a rate hike, and the market could surge aggressively. This data will shape the price action for the entire coming month and will have a very significant impact.

The 50-week moving average’s behavior patterns in the historical record of $BTC are very clear. In a bear market, when the price rebounds to this line, the first thing that usually happens is a strong rejection; in a bull market, it consolidates near this line for 3 to 5 weeks and then breaks through directly—2015 was like this, and so was 2023. The previous bear market also offered a lesson: in 2022, the price closed above this line for about two weeks; everyone thought a breakout was coming, but it was a false breakout, followed by a further drop—so this time, you need to see at least two weekly candles closing above the level to truly confirm that the bear market has ended. And here’s an old saying worth remembering: when price consolidates below resistance, it will usually eventually break out—and this is a sign of strength in the historical record. Bitcoin is currently trading just below the top of the range; the longer it consolidates, the higher the probability of moving upward.

Many people are stuck on this question: $BTC —has the higher high been created first and then pulled back? From this perspective, it seems fine, but the more crucial fact is this: the moment heavy volume breaks above the cost line of short-term holders, the trend has already flipped. This rally surged three months earlier than in the past; the key moving averages are all compressed right around the prior high. So even if it pulls back before making a new high, the bear market has already officially ended. Next, whenever a pullback occurs, it will be an opportunity to top up and get on board in the early stage of a bull market. Conversely, if you think the bear market hasn’t been confirmed yet just because it hasn’t made a new high, you might miss the most important chance to buy—don’t forget that a few weeks before the explosive surge, the seller exhaustion index hit a new historic low that’s even more extreme than at the ends of the previous bear cycles. If the cycle can be fast-forwarded, who can guarantee that the bull market’s first year of choppy consolidation won’t also be shortened?

It’s been a long time since we talked about El Salvador; it has gradually faded from mainstream media attention—but are they still buying bitcoin? Let’s start with what the IMF says: El Salvador didn’t use money borrowed from the IMF to buy crypto; the Chivo wallet plan also seems to have stalled. So what’s the answer? Yes—every day, they still buy one $BTC . Basically, each day they add one more to their holdings, and it has never stopped—this is the real DCA. For years now, with bitcoin designated as a national currency, in bull markets, bear markets, and even in markets nobody is paying attention to, El Salvador is still quietly doing the things they said they would do back then. Here, we should applaud them.

Take a look at the liquidation chart for these two days: on Thursday, $BTC surged directly from 77,000 to over 82,000, wiping out 470 million in short positions and 82 million in long positions; on Friday, it fell back from over 82,000 to over 77,000, wiping out 125 million in short positions and nearly 280 million in long positions. The price went in a circle back to where it started, but the market added a full 1 billion dollars in short-term leverage liquidations. The phrase from the CoinDesk expert is worth remembering: time in the market, not timing the market—staying in the market longer is always more important than trying to guess the top or bottom. The data backs it up: in Bitcoin's 18-year history, in 11 years, if you missed the best 10 days of the year, profitable years turned into losing years; in 2019, the full-year return was +94%, but missing the best 10 days turned it into -40%; in 2011, the full-year return was +1474%, but missing them left only +2.2%; and so far in 2026, it's -9%, but missing the best 5 days turns it into -36%.

$BTC In stock ETF: the past three weeks saw the largest inflow in 2026, with cumulative inflows exceeding 3.8 billion. Just last week, inflows were another 986.9 million. On Thursday—the day Bitcoin rose to over 82,000—single-day inflows reached 730 million. On Friday, the price pulled back, yet inflows were still positive at 174 million for the day. I often say you don’t need to overthink daily or even weekly inflow/outflow fluctuations, but the long-term trend is very clear: Bitcoin’s price has been holding steady in the same range for months, while the total inflow into spot ETFs continues to rise—this suggests that institutions, VCs, and investment banks are quietly positioning themselves behind the scenes. And when funds are still entering on days when prices fall, it shows that institutional confidence in this sector remains very high.

Senator Lummis tweeted a warning: if the Clarity Act does not pass this September, the next real opportunity may not come until 2030 — and the lost jobs, investment opportunities, and tax revenue in the meantime are very real costs. And how does the market see it? On Polymarket, the probability of it passing before the end of 2026 once reached as high as 74% in early May this year, but has now fallen to just 14 to 16% — the market has already fully priced in that it will not pass. This actually creates an asymmetry: if it really does not pass on September 15, the market may not move much, and there could even be a rebound after the dust settles; but if it unexpectedly does pass, that outcome is completely not priced in — $BTC a 20% single-day gain, and altcoins rising 30 to 50% in a single day, are all possible. September 15, keep your eyes on it.

The nonfarm payroll data released on Friday far exceeded expectations: the estimate was only for an increase of 55,000 jobs, but in fact it increased by 162,000. At first glance, that seems bullish, so why did the market pull back sharply instead? Because as long as the job market remains this strong, the Federal Reserve has more reason to raise rates—the stronger the nonfarm report, the more the market speculates whether this gave Kevin Warsh an excuse to hike rates. So the real focus is still this Friday’s CPI data: this round of rate-hike expectations and speculation is likely the biggest of 2026 so far. After the CPI is released, whether the FOMC on September 16 will raise rates can basically be confirmed. My guess is still that CPI will come in better than expected and allow rates to remain unchanged—the answer will be revealed on Friday. Until then, $BTC will most likely trade sideways between 75,000 and 82,000, with no obvious breakout or breakdown.

Look at how dramatic the privacy sector has been. For the past decade it was radioactive: in 2022 the Treasury sanctioned the Tornado Cash contracts, in 2024 the founder of Samourai Wallet was arrested and later sentenced to 5 years and 4 years respectively, and exchanges delisted privacy assets one by one under anti-money-laundering pressure — privacy was a liability. Then everything flipped: in March 2025, the Fifth Circuit ruled that immutable smart contracts are not property that OFAC can sanction, and Tornado Cash was removed from the sanctions list; in October, Naval made the famous remark, positioning Zcash as “insurance against Bitcoin”; in January 2026, Arthur Hayes wrote an article, turning $ZEC into his second-largest liquid position after Bitcoin. Price followed the narrative: ZEC rose from a 52-week low of $38 to 888, with a market cap of $13.4 billion; $XMR also climbed above 500, up 94% on the year. Grayscale even converted the Zcash trust into the first spot privacy-coin ETF in the United States — with a 2.5% annual fee, ten times that of Bitcoin ETFs, and people still bought in.

$ZEC rose more than 1900% in one year, while within the same 12 months, $BTC fell 28% and $ETH fell 44% — the market has already voted: privacy is the trade of this cycle. The demand is real: Zcash’s shielded supply rose from about 8% at the start of 2024 to over 30%, and shielded transactions reached a new high of 59% this February — without anyone forcing them, most users chose invisibility. But now, what Vitalik is pointing to is not these already surging privacy coins, but a project whose mainnet launched only in mid-August and whose token is worth just 9 cents: Interfold. What it hides is not your money — and what it does hide may be far more important. This idea sat idle for seven years, and Vitalik spent nearly ten years asking people to build it; finally, someone has done it.