黑白作手

311 wallets, $92.9 million. Yesterday, Ledger issued a statement while investigating assets stolen from users in Southeast Asia: the affected devices all came from the reseller CryptoBilis, which was listed on the official authorized dealer page, covering Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The company has now told it to stop selling and shipping. Tether has frozen more than 20 addresses and $10 million.

I spent half the morning with a calculator: the chain $BTC moved $17.6 million away, and $92.9 million divided by 311 comes out to an average of $300,000 per wallet—dozens of times more than my tiny holdings. Less than one-ninth has been frozen back. I keep staring at that ratio; if it’s still the same tomorrow, the money will already be gone.

The victims followed the process exactly right: they found an authorized store on the official website and hand-wrote the seed phrase themselves. I picked mine the same way—I didn’t trust a third party being a few dozen bucks cheaper, so I waited 20 days for direct shipping from the official site, even scolding myself for being foolish. This time, what saved me was the stretch of logistics in the middle.

Where did you buy your device? Let me count how many of you got direct shipping from the official site.

#币圈心态 #on-chain data

COMEX gold futures rose 1.43% last night to close at $4,191 an ounce, its biggest one-day gain in a month. Silver rose 2.72% to $60.67. On Friday morning in Asia, the Shanghai Composite was up just 0.05% at 3,813.79, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index gained over 3%, with Xiaomi up nearly 10%.

I did a quick calculation this morning: $4,191 divided by 31.1 means gold is $134.8 per gram. Even if I sold off my entire position at that price, I couldn’t buy 6 grams. Oddly enough, doing the math made me feel more at ease. $BAT went from 0.1004 to 0.1454 last night, and it’s at 0.1362 now. I didn’t chase it—not because I’m not interested, but because the gold I could get by converting that little position wouldn’t even amount to a small piece.

Tell me, how many grams of gold could you get by converting your little position?

#币圈心态 #我的持仓 #EverydayCryptoTrading

Upbit listed $KAIA last night. Trading opened at 18:30 Korea time across three markets—KRW, BTC, and USDT. It’s Korea’s biggest exchange. KAIA rose from 0.0371 to 0.0638 and is now at 0.06118, with 482 million U in trading volume.

I only put in my order after seeing this post last night. The funding rate was -0.1624%, or -178% annualized. It’s up so much, yet shorts are paying longs. Trading volume of 482 million U divided by open interest of 13.81 million U means it turned over 35 times in a day—money doesn’t stay overnight. I didn’t chase it this time; I just felt I couldn’t catch it.

I’m watching the turnover. If it drops below 10 tomorrow, I’ll accept that. What do you think—would you chase a listing like this?

#数据视角 #CryptoReality

Dalio’s warning sent me off calculating something else when I casually opened this up this afternoon: the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries hit 5.36% at one point this week, its highest level since 2002. That’s what he said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday at the Milken Institute Asia Summit in Singapore. U.S. stocks have weathered this round of bond selling thanks to a cushion provided by corporate earnings, but that cushion is getting thinner. Yields rose nearly 90 basis points over the third quarter—the biggest quarterly increase this century. He also said we need to watch free cash flow now, not just reported earnings.

I calculated something else: $STRK is up 45.49% today. Divide that by 5.36%, and you get 8.49 times. In a single day, it’s delivering the equivalent of ten years’ worth of interest on U.S. Treasuries. I ran the numbers twice. When something gives you ten years’ worth in one day, it’ll probably give it all back the next. I chased it at a high last month, and it gave the gains back the very next day. This time, I stayed put.

What do you think—would you chase an 8.5x move, or do what I did and run after doing the math?

#数据视角 #CryptoTruth

The Australian AI company’s $5.5 billion IPO has been pulled.

Firmus is an NVIDIA-backed data center company. It had planned to raise $5.5 billion at A$11 per share, valuing it at $30.6 billion—nearly three times the $10.5 billion raised in its August round. This morning, Sydney time, it closed the books on subscriptions. A few hours later, it issued a statement saying recent market volatility meant the terms didn’t reflect the company’s value, so it would turn to private funding.

I saw this and went to calculate something else: it brought in just $51 million in revenue for the entire financial year. I punched $30.6 billion divided by that into the calculator three times: 600x. $RLC is up 25.9% today, but it fell from 1.087 to 0.8531. Anyone who bought at the peak is down 21.5%. That’s exactly what I’m afraid of—chasing a price spike. I didn’t chase this time; I chased a similar one last month, and it gave back half its gains in two days.

So, would you pay 600x? I wouldn’t.

#数据视角 #CryptoTruth

Apple, Nvidia, Tesla are about to go on-chain.

Securitize said today that they want to turn these three companies into tokens and move them onto Solana, and they’re still in talks with the NYSE about listing—CoinDesk posted it an hour ago.

I didn’t look at those three; I calculated where the people who jumped in today are: $JUP hit a high of 0.388, now it’s 0.3652. If you entered at the high, you’re down 5.9%. What I’m afraid of is that one spike-and-chase moment.

This morning, with Samsung’s $80 billion, I also calculated first before acting. Back then, all five AI coins were green—I didn’t chase. I’ve used this sequence three times this year, and I got it right twice.

You tell me: when Apple goes on-chain, would you dare buy the company itself, or are you buying into this chain for moving the goods? I don’t dare the former.

#数据视角 #Crypto News

$NEAR is up 140% in a month. I just did some quick math—CoinTelegraph said a little over half an hour ago that it had entered the top 20 by market cap. It’s at 5.326 now.

I was calculating the other side of it: something that’s up 140% would have to drop 58% to get back to where it was a month ago. Seeing that number written down scares me too. Of the 741 contracts across the market today, 525 are down, while it’s still up 2.46%. That’s real strength.

I made a rule for myself this year: I don’t touch anything that doubles in a month. Since making it, I’ve avoided two and missed out on one. The rule itself isn’t worth much; what matters is that I really didn’t act this time—would you buy something that’s doubled in a month? I wouldn’t dare.

#数据视角 #RetailInvestorLife

Just now, I worked out the numbers for the two biggest losers today. GRIFFAIN is down 31%, so it needs to rise 45% to get back to its original price; Lobster is down 33%, so it needs to rise 49%. My chart also says a 50% drop needs a 100% rise to recover, and a 70% drop needs a 233% rise. Just looking at it scares me.

I never used to pay attention to this number. I’d see something down 30% and think it was cheap, get the itch to jump in, and only realize after buying that it could still fall further. I only started calculating this chart after getting stuck holding the bag last year. I wouldn’t call it a strategy or anything, but once I do the math, the urge to buy goes away. This year, I avoided two bad buys and missed out once.

I wrote two words on a sticky note and put it by my monitor: Do the math first.

When you’re trying to catch a falling knife, do you figure out how much it needs to rise to break even first, or do you just buy because you see how far it’s fallen? Anyone else used to be like me?

#散户日常 #RetailInvestorDiary

Samsung said this morning that its third-quarter profit is expected to hit $80 billion, a record high, thanks to demand for AI chips. CNBC posted the news just over an hour ago. When I saw it, I thought AI was about to take off again.

I went and checked a few AI coins: TAO down 3.9%, RENDER down 5.6%, WLD down 5.0%, FET down 2.4%, and GRT down 4.5%. I worked out the average for the five: -4.3%. They’re all in the red. The news says they’re making $80 billion, while I haven’t caught a single one of these moves. Put simply, it’s not the same kind of money. In the past, my first reaction to news like this was always fear of missing out, and I’d get itchy fingers and chase the price. That’s exactly what I did last month—I bought at the top and was stuck the next day. This time I didn’t chase. I calculated the numbers for these five first.

What about you? Do you chase after seeing news like this?

#数据视角 #RetailInvestorLife

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a batch of 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum funds for trading today, according to Decrypt, which posted the news over seven hours ago. These high-leverage crypto products had been stuck in limbo for a long time. This time, the ones that got the green light are 3x funds—buying one share is like borrowing money to invest twice as much, so gains and losses are both tripled. On the same day, the CFTC and SEC also put forward a crypto regulatory framework. Last month, the CLARITY Act failed to pass a Senate vote.

I saw this first thing this morning but didn’t jump in. I did the math first: if BTC drops 10% and then rises 10%, its value ends up 1% lower. With 3x leverage, that’s 0.7 × 1.3 = 0.91, so you’d be down 9% for nothing. $BTC had a maximum one-day drop of 3.27% over the past 40 days; tripling that, I get -9.8%.

The gains feel great, but I just can’t handle the losses. Who do you think this kind of thing is meant for?

#币圈真实 #数据视角 #CryptoTradingDaily

I didn’t open a single position in the past 7 days. Today, I took a moment to pull up the prices I’d noted last time and compare them.

BTC’s high this week was 87,249 and its low was 82,500, for a weekly range of 5.76%. I broke it down by day and recalculated: the average daily range was just 2.52%, and the biggest single-day move was 4.06%—that 5.76% was ground out gradually over seven days, not caused by a sudden crash on any one day.

When I’m watching the market every day, a 2-point move is enough to make me itchy to trade. I didn’t check once this whole week, and only after crunching the numbers did I realize I’d managed to avoid it.

Were you watching the market every day this week, or did you just tune it out like I did?

#散户日常 #韭菜日记 #DataPerspective

CoinGecko a new report has been circulating today: $ETH surged 70% in Q3, outperforming Bitcoin’s 42%, but order book depth hasn’t improved—in fact, from July 6 to September 30, ETH’s average daily depth was only 35% to 45% of Bitcoin’s; in the same period last year it was still above 60%. Within 0.15% of the current price, the total of buy and sell orders adds up to just $13 million to $14 million. The report also mentioned that Solana’s depth fell from about $28 million to $20 million.

On my way home from work, I happened to see this report on my feed, and after reading it I felt a bit chilled. Last month I was planning to add to my position on $ETH , but after calculating the depth I didn’t move—now it seems I was right: it’s been surging hard, yet the liquidity underneath isn’t thick; when a big order hits, the price just slides.

What do you all think—if a coin goes up while depth shrinks, would you still dare to hold it?

#加密新闻 #数据视角 #Retail-trader daily

During lunch break, flipping through my phone to make a memo. That column says “I wanted to buy but didn’t,” and there are 12 of them this year.

Each one was almost an order—until I got stuck on a certain number and didn’t place it. Some are the ones where turnover changed hands more than a dozen times in a day; others were ones where the fee would eat up several percentage points in a day.

Today I checked each of these 12 and how they ended up going—9 of them fell. The one that fell the hardest dropped from 0.31 to 0.07.

I’m saying this isn’t to make myself look super accurate. I had no basis at the time at all—those numbers just looked off, and that’s why I pulled my hand back. I also remember the 3 that went up. One of them surged the most—I admit I missed it. After calculating, I felt a bit more at ease; I ended up dodging more than I missed. Tell me, have you counted trades you didn’t place like this too? In the end, were there more that went up or more that went down?

#炒币日常 #crypto-world-real

Tether released a statement yesterday saying that this year it helped U.S. law enforcement freeze about 550 million USDT related to Iran. Of that, two addresses were frozen in April for 344 million, and four more TRON wallets were frozen in July for a total of 130 million. The backdrop is that a U.S. Senate investigative panel issued a report saying that among the 846 Iran-linked wallets they examined, 84% use USDT for almost all transactions. The report directly calls USDT a lifeline—part of Iran’s shadow banking network.

I’ve written that 84% down in my notebook. Not because the number is huge, but because it shows that the liquidity of stablecoins has no real boundaries, and that freezes are only done after the fact. I also keep a bit of USDT on hand as “ammunition.” After reading this, I’m scared—can this money really be held safely? I can’t judge whether the report is fair or not. If I miscalculated, I’ll come back and correct it, but with 84% sitting there in front of us, shouldn’t we also figure out how much of our holdings could be frozen at any time? Do you think stablecoins are still safe?

$USDT
#加密新闻 #数据视角 #币圈真实

On one hand, they say “AI isn’t safe,” so they hold off on releasing it; on the other hand, Samsung pulls out $1 billion to pour into AI infrastructure. These two things happened within about an hour of each other.

Honestly, I looked at my phone for a long time and still couldn’t tell whose side to believe, so I went to check $NMR . It’s up 42.75% today. I worked it out myself: the low is 9.669, the high is 15.5—just within a single day, the spread is 60.3%.

With an amplitude like this, someone as shaky as me would probably get hit on both ends if I tried to jump in. I might be wrong—tell me, which side does this actually count as?

#市场快讯 #行情播报 #data perspective

NVIDIA token 232.2, today trading volume 205 million U. I originally thought that buying tokens could help me avoid that one jump when the US stock market opens. Before going to sleep last night, I even checked it on purpose—then I matched the times again and realized that during those 17 and a half hours when the market actually doesn’t open in the evening, this token itself already walked that stretch of the road. By the time the opening price was set, it was already fixed there. I thought I was avoiding risk, but really I was helping someone else set the price first. To put it bluntly, I may have gotten it wrong. Now I’m kind of scared. What do you think—am I wrong to think this way? Does a token count as avoiding the opening bell?

$NVDA
#炒币日常 #币圈真实 #data perspective

1.88 billion USD—using it besides the current SOL price, that equals 1.588 million SOL. I finished the math and then went to check the market data. It’s down today, -4.62%, now at 118.40. The money came in, but the price is still moving downward. I was stunned—I might have thought about it wrong. Having these two numbers side by side just feels awkward.

On the same day, $ONE rose 17.8%, with volume of 140 million USD (U). Open interest was 10.72 million USD (U). In a single day, it turned 13 times. Tell me—did this money actually count as coming in, or not?

#币圈真实 #CryptoTradingDaily

Before sleep I counted 727 coins one by one.
77 are red, 649 are green. I was afraid I’d miscount, so I counted them again—and still 77. In other words, today if you close your eyes and just buy one at random, you’re probably going to lose; the two I have are also in the green pile—nothing special about them. I might be wrong, but getting hit by today’s drop really isn’t just my problem. You tell me: in those 77 you have today, or are you unable to count even a single one?

#炒币日常 #crypto-world-real

I hit one, and Zano rolled the chain back 30 days because of that vulnerability last month.

My first reaction was to check my table—every transaction this year is in it. If the chain can be rolled back, then no matter how precisely I calculated these numbers, it’s all for nothing. The books are what I recorded, but the chain isn’t something I can control. When I thought of that, I panicked.

The one that’s been surging the most today is $SOON : up 29% in a single day, with $280 million in volume. But from today’s high, it’s already dropped 18.2%. The batch that bought in at the morning pump is all sitting at an unrealized loss now. I don’t dare to hold it. Tell me—would you dare to hold something like this overnight?

#币圈真实 #My holdings

I made myself a table: if you’re down 20%, you need to rise 25% to break even; if you’re down 50%, you need to rise by 100%; if you’re down 80%, you need to rise by 400%.

Today on the subway, I went through and calculated each of the few positions I’m stuck in. After I finished, it felt even worse than just looking at my account directly. I used to always think, “It’ll just come back up.” Turns out that’s not how it works at all. If you can see where I might have misunderstood, call out to me—I’ll check my math again.

Tell me: for the one you’re down the most on, how much does it need to rise for you to break even?

#炒币日常 #被套日常