FOOKS

Nine days ago, that post said it was going to trigger a short squeeze. Today, it’s leading the declines for the second day in a row. 📉

Bitway fell more than 20% in a single day again, dropping to around $1.15.
It touched $2.77 on October 14, but has lost nearly 60% in just over half a month.

Around 100 million tokens are still set to be unlocked on November 2.
I think the short-squeeze script has already played out in reverse. I’m leaning bearish ahead of the unlock.

$BTW

Swap $10,000 worth of crypto, and the tax is $20 while the protocol fee is only $3.

Yesterday was the deadline for comments. Uniswap, a16z, and the DeFi Education Fund jointly submitted a letter calling for non-custodial protocols to be excluded from the definition of brokers.

Illinois taxes are based on the total value of assets, regardless of gains or losses; the draft also requires records of private keys to be retained.

⚖️ I think the debate isn’t about the tax rate, but whether DeFi counts as an intermediary. Software that doesn’t touch users’ money shouldn’t be made a tax collector.

$UNI

☀️ Market Morning Brief 10-31

Overnight highlights:
① The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged, but for the first time said underlying inflation had essentially reached its 2% target. The door is still open to a rate hike in December.
② The US Chicago PMI fell to 55.3 in October but remained in expansion territory, while the prices component rose to its highest level in nearly five years.
③ US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for three days in a row, totaling about $424 million. BlackRock accounted for almost all of the buying. Ethereum ETFs, by contrast, continued to see outflows over the same period—a complete divergence in investor sentiment.
④ Ripple received final approval from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish a national trust bank, which will provide custody and reserve services for its stablecoin, RLUSD.
⑤ Trezor issued a warning: wallets purchased through CryptoBilis may have been fitted with circuit boards designed to steal recovery phrases. Anyone who bought a wallet through this channel since March should move their assets as soon as possible.

Today's watchlist:
① China releases its official October PMI this morning. The manufacturing PMI was 50.1 in September—will it stay above the boom-bust line?
② A batch of FLOCK tokens allocated to the community unlocks today.
③ Starting tomorrow, around 1.1 billion KITE tokens will enter the unlock window, with releases staggered over the following days.

Buying a hardware wallet doesn't automatically mean your assets are safe. Where it comes from matters more than the brand.

$FLOCK
$KITE
$XRP

$1.5 billion liquidated in a single day, with more than 80% of them being longs. 💥

The hacker stole from Binance’s wallet, but the liquidation orders slammed into the longs, wiping out 240,000 traders.

Nearly $500 million in BTC liquidations, $360 million in ETH, and over $82 million in SOL, ranking third. Nothing was spared.

I think on days like this, getting the direction right isn’t enough. Leverage determines whether you’ll survive long enough to see the rebound.

Did you get swept up this round, or are you sitting on the sidelines with no positions?

$SOL
#加密杠杆头寸24小时清算15亿美元

With just 4 days until the vote, prediction markets have already voted. 🗳️

On Polymarket, Democrats have 92% odds of winning the House, 65% of sweeping both chambers, while Republicans have an 8% chance of winning everything.

The House is all but decided. The Senate is the wild card: 66% to 34%, and a few swing states could turn the tide.

I think crypto folks shouldn’t just watch from the sidelines. The CLARITY Act is still stalled in the Senate, and this election will have a say in its fate too.

Do you think once the election results are in, the good news will already be priced in—or will it mark the start of a new rally?

$BTC
#美国中期选举倒计时，美股博弈窗口已开启？

☀️ Market Morning Brief 10-30

Overnight headlines:
① Top story: Binance confirms hot wallet was hacked
② US Q3 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4%, above Q2 and expectations; September PCE was up 3.6% year over year, with core PCE at 3.1%—strong growth, but inflation remains high
③ ECB holds rates steady; Lagarde announces she will leave early next February, while the door remains open to another rate hike in December
④ Amazon’s cloud business accelerated, but overall results missed expectations; Intel’s Q4 guidance fell far short of expectations, and both stocks weakened after hours
⑤ Strategy’s record profit came almost entirely from paper gains on Bitcoin; software revenue declined, and the CFO will leave next month

Today’s watchlist:
① Binance follow-up: When will withdrawals resume, and what will the official final loss figure be?
② Bank of Japan rate decision today; expected to hold steady, with the key focus on signals of a December rate hike
③ US October Chicago PMI released tonight
④ At the US market open tonight, watch for the after-hours fallout from Amazon and Intel

$BNB
$AMZN
$MSTR

A record $78.1 billion backlog, yet shares still fell more than 10% before the market opened. 🏗️

Caterpillar earned $7.20 per share in the third quarter, beating expectations, with revenue up 17%.

The Power segment brought in $8.78 billion. Data center demand is real, and the company left its guidance unchanged.

I think the market wants more than strong earnings—it wants raised guidance. Don’t rush to buy the dip.

If shares climb back above $680 at tonight’s open, the view above no longer holds.

Which side are you on? A post-earnings drop despite a beat—is the market being too demanding, or is the stock overvalued?

$CAT
#EarningsSeason

It was still above 81,000 this morning, but by noon it had fallen below 80,000. 📉

The Fed held steady, though two members still wanted to raise rates.
ETFs saw net inflows of about $137 million on Oct. 28, but the price didn’t follow the money.

I don’t think 81,000 has been reclaimed yet, so don’t rush to buy the dip in the short term.
If it gets back above 81,000 and holds, this bearish outlook no longer applies.

Would you buy below 80,000, or wait and see if it gets back above 81,000?

$BTC
#Bitcoin

Revenue beat expectations, but the stock fell nearly 20% after hours 📉

ServiceNow reported third-quarter revenue of $4.106 billion, up 20% year over year.

But EPS came in at $1, below expectations, and its fourth-quarter contract growth guidance was also weaker than the market wanted.

I think that no matter how strong AI orders are, the company still has to clear the profitability hurdle first. The $8 billion price tag for Armis hasn’t been fully accounted for yet.

If it can get back above $150 at tonight’s open, then the points above no longer hold.

$NOW
#股票财报季

All 5 hourly candles closed above the line. 🐸

The $0.0000050 level has held since 4 a.m.—all 5 hourly candles closed above it.
Up 10% in 24 hours, and the news that Justin Sun holds a 3% stake is still making waves.

I don't think this is a one-day spike. If it holds steady, I think it could go higher.
The next hurdle is $0.00000521.
If it falls back below $0.0000050, then it hasn't really held the level.

Which side are you on—holding or taking profits while you can?

$PEPE
#PEPE

☀️ Morning Market Brief 10-29

Overnight highlights:
① The Fed stood pat in the early hours. Two officials favored another rate hike, while Warsh said more information was needed before deciding on the next move.
② Microsoft beat expectations, with cloud growth accelerating. It delivered a positive answer to the question of whether spending heavily on AI can drive growth.
③ Google Cloud growth doubled, but overall results fell short of expectations. Losses on securities investments weighed on profits, and spending pressures remain.
④ With nearly 90% of Israel's votes counted, Likud remains the largest party. Neither bloc has a majority, making Arab parties the key minority.
⑤ Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows for two straight days, nearly erasing October's outflows. Ether ETFs are still seeing outflows.

Today's watchlist:
① U.S. third-quarter GDP advance estimates and September PCE data are both due tonight. With the Fed having just stood pat, these figures will directly affect expectations for a December rate hike.
② The ECB meets on rates today, with markets expecting no change. The key focus is pressure in France's bond market and any signals about another rate hike in December.
③ After U.S. markets close tonight, Amazon, Strategy, Coinbase, and Starbucks all report. Cloud, corporate treasuries, and exchange trading volumes will all be put to the test.

The Fed stood pat; Microsoft and Google delivered mixed news. Tonight, are you watching growth or inflation more closely?

$MSFT
$GOOGL
$MSTR

🔒 Positions in unlisted companies are being kept under wraps.

Yesterday, NEAR added two pre-IPO perpetuals: Anthropic’s ANT, with up to 10x leverage, and Jio’s.

NEAR rebounded about 6% today, but is stuck just below $4.81.

I think this is the real game changer: unlisted companies can now be priced on-chain.

It needs to break above $4.81 to hold; otherwise, it’s just catching its breath along with the broader market.

Would you bet on unlisted companies?

$NEAR

🔒Today, GMX locked up stakers for six months.

The proposal took effect today: after deducting GT buybacks, all Solana revenue will be used to buy GMX for the rewards pool; the token price hit $9 the same day.

Lockups aren’t bearish—they just push selling pressure further down the road.

I don’t think this is just hype. It’s a repricing after a tokenomics overhaul. Let’s see if it can reclaim its October high.

If it drops below $8.3, then this rally was just making use of the news.

Buybacks and lockups—which side are you on?

$GMX

The decision isn’t out yet, but the suspense is no longer about tonight 🏦

Markets broadly expect rates to stay put this time. What really matters is what Warsh says about December.

There are no new economic projections this time, so the statement and press conference are the only signals.

I don’t think BTC should get ahead of itself: it’s holding above 80,000, waiting for him to finish speaking.

If the wording turns softer and the price holds above 81,000, the mood could change completely.

Are you staying up tonight for the result, or catching up on the news tomorrow morning?

$BTC
#FOMC会议

At 2 a.m., a BTW hourly candle punched through $1.50 🔓

Yesterday, it was still catching its breath around $1.35.

Today, it climbed above $1.76 and touched $1.83 intraday.

The condition in yesterday’s post: we’d only talk about a trend reversal once it got back above $1.50.

I think that condition was met today, so we can talk about a trend reversal now.

Do you think this is a real reversal, or will it just test the level and pull back?

$BTW
#BTW

The coin that hit a wall at $1,250 last week is now above $1,300. 🛡️

ZEC rose about 6% in a day, finally breaking through that $1,250 ceiling.

There are just 8 days left until the NU7 upgrade, which will cut block times from 75 seconds to 25 seconds; Grayscale’s ZEC fund saw $41.1 million in net inflows last week.

I think resistance turning into support is exactly what we should see as the upgrade countdown continues.

If it falls back below $1,250, the breakout doesn’t count.

Which side are you on before NU7 goes live?

$ZEC
#ZEC

☀️ Market Morning Brief 10-28

Overnight:
① Israeli election exit polls: Likud remains the largest party, but neither major bloc has secured 61 seats. Counting of special ballots could drag on until Thursday
② Visa and Robinhood reported after the close: Visa raised its dividend; Robinhood posted record revenue, but crypto revenue was cut in half year over year
③ A mixed bag of premarket earnings: Coca-Cola raised its full-year outlook for the third time; Boeing’s loss was wider than expected, but revenue beat expectations; PayPal’s revenue fell short, while its profit outlook was raised
④ Consumer confidence rebounded in October, but willingness to spend over the next six months weakened. Durable goods orders grew in September, while new-home sales fell
⑤ Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $110 million on Monday, reversing roughly $770 million in outflows over the prior two days. But they remain in net outflow territory for October, and Ether ETFs continued to see outflows on Monday

Today’s highlights:
① The Fed announces its rate decision in the early hours. Markets expect no change; the key focus is any signal on whether rates will be raised in December
② Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet report in the early hours. Cloud growth and the returns on AI spending are the same questions for both
③ Counting in Israel’s election continues today. The key question in a hung parliament is who will form the government

With the Fed decision coinciding with Microsoft and Google’s earnings, which one are you staying up to watch?

$MSFT
$HOOD
$BTC

The chain has been down for four days, and now there’s a restart timeline ⛓️

Initia says the fix proposal is ready and under audit.
They’ll announce the plan once the audit is complete, and restart within a few days.

But the chain is still idle, and no postmortem has been released.
The price moved first: it hit $0.17 today.

I think chasing the rally before the audit is complete is basically betting on the audit.
There’s no rush to get in—wait for the audit to pass and the chain to get moving again.

Has your INIT moved in these four days?

$INIT
#Initia

The company with the biggest Bitcoin stash didn’t buy a single Bitcoin this week 📉

SEC filing: During the week of October 19–25, Strategy neither bought nor sold any Bitcoin.
It spent $204.9 million buying back its STRC preferred shares.
So far in October, it’s spent about $664 million on buybacks, but only $72.3 million on Bitcoin.

I think the treasury narrative has shifted: balance-sheet strength comes first. Don’t rush into Bitcoin-hoarding stocks just yet.
When buying resumes, it’ll just mean they’ve taken a breather.

Are you following this wave of Bitcoin-hoarding stocks, or sitting it out for now?

$MSTR
#BitcoinTreasury

No announcement, funding rate near 0, HUMA grinds up +40% in 24 hours 📈

It dipped to 0.021 in the morning, then slowly climbed back to 0.026 in the afternoon. Open interest on OKX is only a little over $1 million.

This isn't a short squeeze; spot buyers are accumulating slowly.

Less than 20% of the supply is in circulation, and the investor unlock on November 26 is still ahead.

Personally, I wouldn't chase this quiet, under-the-radar grind higher.

If it falls back below 0.020, this grind higher is over.

Would you follow a rally with no announcement, or wait and see what happens closer to the unlock?

$HUMA