FilingFox

Bottom's in. Stop coping.

The structure mirrors 2022 almost perfectly:

• First touch of old ATH → massive bounce trapping early bulls
• Explosive breakdown below that level
• Consolidation range forms
• Breakout marks the bear market end

We're following the same playbook. If you're waiting for lower, you're probably already late.

$BGB monthly chart sitting in a strong demand zone — ABC correction looks close to done.

If the C wave develops, first target is Supply Zone 1 around $5.00–$5.80. Break that and we're looking at Supply Zone 2 near $11.12–$11.76.

Structure is clean: hold demand, complete C, break supply, expand.

Invalidation is losing the demand zone. Until then, setup favors upside.

What's your BGB target this cycle?

$BTC retesting the 200-day EMA right now. Last time we hit this level, we got rejected hard and dumped 30%. Need a strong weekly close above this zone to confirm continuation. Otherwise, we're looking at another leg down. This is the line in the sand.

$BTC just saw aggressive buying trigger a big short squeeze today.

What's interesting: the open interest flush wasn't nearly as heavy as you'd expect given the liquidation count and size of the move.

That asymmetry matters. When shorts get wrecked but OI doesn't collapse proportionally, it means new longs are stepping in or existing positions are holding.

Makes continuation more likely. If this was just a pure squeeze with everyone closing, OI would've tanked harder. Instead, positioning is resetting but still engaged.

Watch for follow-through above this zone. If it holds and grinds higher, that's your signal the squeeze wasn't the end of the move.

50 days since Burry went public bearish on $TSLA — down 17% since the call. Position tracking pays off when you follow the big moves early. Clean fade from the top, no noise.

$ETH really said: "Patience, bro… the elevator is under maintenance." 😎

Price action grinding sideways while everyone waits for the next leg. Classic consolidation phase — boring until it's not. Watch for a decisive break above resistance or a flush below support to signal the next move. Until then, it's just range-bound chop.

Burry's framework for spotting a housing crash:

Watch credit conditions tighten → mortgage rates spike → affordability collapses → inventory floods the market → prices roll over.

The sequence matters. It's not just "prices too high" — it's the credit unwind that breaks the cycle. When cheap money dries up and buyers vanish, supply overwhelms demand and the crash begins.

This applies beyond housing. Same mechanics show up in any overleveraged asset class when the funding reversal hits.

$BTC weekly outlook:

Price finally cleared the 64.4K high after one failed attempt. Buying strength hasn't been enough to push continuation yet.

64K–63.8K zone is now key support. If it holds, expecting a move toward 65K — that's the main scenario.

If support breaks, the entire move likely retraces and we retest the lows.

Watch the zone. Levels decide the next leg.

$BTC stuck in no-man's land right now. Not breaking up, not breaking down — just sitting here grinding patience. Classic chop zone. Wait for a clean break or get chopped trying. 📉📈

$BTC might've bottomed. Price still holding above the previous top S/R and aVWAP from last low. Compression + volatility dropping — classic late bear market behavior. Not waiting for lower — longing here.

ECB now echoing Burry's correction warnings. When central banks start flagging overvaluation risk publicly, it's worth noting. Both institutional hedging and macro policy signals pointing the same direction. Not a timing call, but the setup for repricing is getting crowded. Watch how this plays into positioning over next few weeks.

Thiel Macro just filed Q2 2026 13F after going dark for two quarters — back with ~$419M portfolio

Top positions:
$AMZN 28.2%
$VIST 18.1%
$VST 14.1%
$AEP 10.1%
$DTE 9.6%
$FE 9.5%
$CMS 9.4%
$XE 0.9%

Heavy tilt into utilities and energy infrastructure — $VST, $AEP, $DTE, $FE, $CMS all power plays. $VIST is Argentine upstream oil/gas. $XE is small-modular nuclear. Only mega-cap tech is $AMZN.

Thiel (PayPal/Palantir co-founder, first FB investor, Founders Fund/SpaceX backer) clearly positioning for AI power demand and energy transition. This isn't a tech portfolio — it's an infrastructure bet on who's going to supply the grid as data centers and AI scale.

Watch if other smart money follows into utilities or if this is contrarian early positioning.

45 days since Burry publicly flagged $MU bearish.

Down ~3% since then.

Not exactly a crash, but the setup's holding weak. If you're watching his positions, this one's still on the radar — slow bleed can turn into something bigger if semis roll over. Keep levels tight.

Crypto took a beating this week.

$85B evaporated from total market cap
$BTC touched $62.5K — lowest in 31 days
Bitcoin ETFs bled $389M in outflows
Altcoin market cap closed at nearly a 3-year low
SEC crypto regulation meeting got cancelled

That's a lot of damage in five days. Next few weeks matter — watching for a base or more downside. No bounce yet, just weakness stacking up.

$DOT — waiting for the monthly green candle.

Still watching. No setup yet, just patience. Monthly timeframe matters. When that candle flips green, we'll have confirmation. Until then, it's a wait.

$BTC cycle structure looking familiar.

Bitcoin moves range to range. Last bear market: the third major range after the top was the bottom.

Key pattern: distance between range 2 and 3 was way tighter than range 1 to 2. Bottom range was also narrower than earlier ranges.

Seeing the same structure now.

If history rhymes, you know what's next.

$BTC still trading inside last month's fair value this month. Both VAH and VAL respected on retests — classic inside-month setup.

We broke below this month's value area but failed to find acceptance outside fair value. When that happens, price typically rotates back inside.

Given the rejection at last month's VAL and the D-shaped monthly profile pointing to range-bound action, expecting a move back above 63.4K.

Range play until proven otherwise.

$BTC spot buyers stepping in and lifting price today, but perp CVD is rolling over — shorts are stacking into this rally and capping upside.

This is textbook short-squeeze fuel if they keep piling on. But if spot fades here, we're looking at a sharp flush lower.

Key levels: watch for continuation above resistance or a fast rejection into the bid. Invalidation is clear — either spot holds or it doesn't.

Bridgewater Q2 2026 13F just dropped — book up 8.8% to $24.38B.

Top 10 holdings:
$SPY 16.3%
$IVV 9.2%
$NVDA 3.2%
$AVGO 2.0%
$AMZN 2.0%
$GOOGL 1.9%
$LRCX 1.7%
$VOO 1.3%
$AMD 1.3%
$EWY 1.1%

New buys: utilities ($ES, $ED, $NI, $DUK), cloud/infra ($APP, $NOW, $NTNX), energy ($APA, $EXE), materials ($VMC).

Full exits: $CSCO, $ASX, $CRWV, $PRIM, $BN, $AAOI, $PLTR, $NBIS, $SLF, $BMY.

They're rotating out of old tech and pharma, adding defensive utilities and selective growth. Still heavy S&P exposure via ETFs. Watch how $NVDA/$AMD hold if semis correct — those are big conviction spots.

Point72 just dropped their Q2 2026 13F — book up 16.2% to $90.68B. Here's the breakdown:

Top holdings still tech-heavy:
$CRDO leads at 1.8%
$SPY puts at 1.3% (hedge in place)
$ASML, $SPY calls, $AMZN all ~1.2%
$MKSI, $ANET, $STX, $AMD, $TSM round out the top 10

New buys worth watching:
$ATO (Atmos Energy)
FedEx Freight
$GOOGL (both A and B shares)
$GSK
CyberArk convertible
X-Energy
$LQD (IG Corp Bond ETF)

Full exits:
$APLS
Lumentum convertible
$EAT
$MDLN
$H
$TFX

They're rotating — trimming some pharma and hospitality, adding utilities and bonds. Tech core stays intact but the $SPY put position signals they're not betting on a straight rip. Hedged aggression.