Daily spot/futures trading tasks (around 50 U in volume) can earn about 200 points, which sounds like a pretty good deal. But there are two costs to factor in: fees and slippage.
A 50 U round trip, with a 0.1% fee, costs 0.1 U in fees, plus slippage, bringing the actual cost to around 0.15–0.3 U. Over a month, that adds up to a few to over ten U.
Whether it’s worth it comes down to one thing: were you going to trade anyway?
If you were already planning to rebalance, doing the task along the way is free points. Trading just for the task means paying for points—and they’re points with no monetary value.
Here’s what I do: I only route orders I was already going to place through this, and never place extra orders just for the task.
The activity is cleverly designed: complete tasks to earn points → stake points → get points for correct guesses → climb the leaderboard. Follow that chain to the end, and it’s easy to end up “staking more to earn more points.”
But the prize pool is fixed. Betting more won’t make it bigger—it’ll only increase volatility. And the weekly leaderboard only counts PnL > 0, so if volatility rises, you’re the one most likely to get knocked out first.
Remember: points have no monetary value, but your time and attention do. Don’t bring a real-money gambler’s mindset to a simulated market.
Once you understand that, a lot of decisions become much simpler—for example, “Should I place another bet to climb the leaderboard?” The answer is usually no.
When I look at prediction markets, the first thing I check isn’t what other people think—it’s the price itself.
If an event is priced at 0.65, that means the market collectively thinks there’s a 65% chance it will happen. That number is more honest than any influencer’s take, because it’s backed by people putting their money where their mouth is.
So before placing a bet, I ask myself just one question: Why do I think I’m more accurate than the market? If I can’t answer that, I stay out.
Most losses come from “I think it’ll go up,” not “I’ve calculated that it’s undervalued.” That’s the difference between entertainment and trading.
Points play a lot like capital on Shensuanzi: you spend them when you bet and earn more when you’re right.
But they have one advantage over real money—losing them doesn’t affect your day-to-day life. So I use them as a training ground for position-sizing discipline.
Three simple rules I’m keeping here for myself: never risk more than 20% of my total points on a single bet; stop for the day after two losses in a row; don’t bet just to “test the waters” when I have no information advantage.
The math makes it clear why: lose 20% each time, and after five losses in a row you still have 33% left. Lose 50% each time, and after five losses you’re down to just 3%. One bad night can knock you out.
In prediction markets, the people who last aren’t the ones who guess right—they’re the ones who lose slowly.
That “PnL > 0” requirement on the weekly leaderboard looks harsh, but it’s really there to separate the disciplined from the rest.
It divides “taking a lucky gamble” from “making small, steady gains”: even if the former racks up enough points to climb near the top, a loss that week means you still won’t make the settlement list—in other words, a week’s work for nothing.
So the right approach isn’t to bet all your points on one shot and hope to double them, but to keep each position size under control and let your win rate work over time.
I’ve set three rules for myself: never put more than 20% of my total points into a single trade; stay away from markets where I don’t have an information edge; and call it a day after two losing trades in a row.
My biggest takeaway after a month: don’t chase the biggest possible return on a single trade—focus on staying in the game.
The first weekly leaderboard will be finalized tonight. The first week is only 5 days long (10/21–10/25), making it the least competitive of the four rounds in terms of sample size—and theoretically the best value for effort.
I didn’t push hard for the leaderboard. I did just three things: checked in, posted, and made sure my net P&L for the week was positive.
The reasoning is straightforward: 100,000 points are being split among 8,000 people, which works out to a little over 10 U per person on average. But the top players take the lion’s share, so the expected return from pushing hard is far lower than the time it takes.
The leaderboard will be finalized tonight at 23:59 (UTC), and the results will be out at 8 a.m. tomorrow. Regardless of my ranking, this round is the best sample to observe—it’ll show you how fierce the competition really is.
A lot of people are still chasing the season leaderboard, but I think that’s the wrong approach.
The season leaderboard awards 500,000 points to the top 20,000 players, based on their total points accumulated over the entire season. By nature, this system favors those who joined early. Join even a day later and you’re permanently behind—with no way to catch up later.
The weekly leaderboard is different: 100,000 points each week for the top 8,000 players, settled based on your PnL for that week. It resets every Monday at 8 a.m. Four rounds mean four independent chances.
So if you’re only joining now, the right strategy is to put all your resources into the weekly leaderboard and act as if the season leaderboard doesn’t exist.
One more detail: the weekly leaderboard requires PnL > 0. No matter how many points you have, if you’re in the red, you won’t make the payout list. This game rewards not aggression, but staying in the game and making a small profit.
The only source of points in the event that costs nothing, carries no risk, and is 100% guaranteed is checking in consecutively.
Don’t treat it like a box to tick. Miss one day and you don’t just lose that day’s points—you reset your entire consecutive check-in bonus to zero. And the hard requirement for the guaranteed prize is “check in at least 5 times during the season.” Miss those 5 check-ins, and no matter how much you do afterward, you won’t get the participation prize.
What I do is tie checking in to something I have to do every day: check the market in the morning, and checking in is the very first thing I do.
Sticking with it may sound dull, but event rewards have never been about being clever.
On day one of Shen Suanzi, let’s clear up the easiest thing to get confused about: Scores are not money.
They can’t be withdrawn or transferred, and they’re reset to zero at the end of the season. Their only purpose is to determine your rank. The prize pools are distributed based on leaderboard rankings—you don’t redeem points for prizes.
There are three prize pools: the Season Leaderboard: 500,000 (top 20,000); the Weekly Leaderboard: 400,000 (100,000 each week, top 8,000); and the Sunshine Pool: 100,000 (for those who don’t make the leaderboard but check in at least 5 times, up to 5 U per person).
Once you understand how it works, the strategy is clear: to secure a guaranteed minimum, don’t miss a check-in; to earn more, focus on the Weekly Leaderboard—it resets every week, so there’s always another chance. The Season Leaderboard is all about accumulating points, so joining one day late puts you permanently behind.
Crypto Daily|August 5: An Ethereum no-new-mint proposal shakes DeFi
Bitcoin stabilizes around 64,000, with a daily gain of about 1 percentage point; ETH is mostly flat near 1,870. Today’s biggest topic in the圈 (industry circle) is a new Ethereum proposal: EIP-8361, jointly proposed by six core researchers (including Justin Drake). The central logic is that, as the amount of staking increases, validators will gradually have their incremental issuance rewards burned. When the staked amount reaches half of the total supply, new coin issuance would drop to zero. At present, 41 million ETH are already staked, and another 2.5 million are queued to enter. At this pace, without intervention, it could break 70 million within two years. If the proposal passes, Ethereum’s scarcity narrative would be fully amplified—but Aave has already jumped in to oppose it, saying that zeroing staking rewards would collapse the lending flywheel. ether.fi’s founder also said it would push out retail validators, turning staking into a game for large institutions. A rushed submission after just a two-day period for soliciting feedback—so the controversy is definitely substantial.
There are also on-chain moves. On August 3, a large transfer of 16,400 BTC worth over $1 billion was made, but it didn’t go to an exchange—more like an internal transfer between custody wallets rather than a sell signal. Another old dormant address, inactive for seven years, also moved 2,931 BTC, with a cost basis of only $6,500; now at 64K it’s nearly ten times higher. In the altcoin space, ZEC rose 11 percentage points in a week due to the Ironwood upgrade. The new mechanism is mathematically verifiable for circulating supply and resolves the most criticized issue of “invisible inflation” in privacy coins—so the narrative really hit some large players’ pain points. LINK hasn’t moved much in price, but BitGo has just migrated $7.4 billion worth of WBTC to CCIP, and with cooperation involving Swift and UBS progressing, the institutional infrastructure track has been quietly laid out all along.
At this stage, Bitcoin can be quite grindy, and the altcoin rotation rhythm is fast. Rather than constantly switching positions, it’s better to hold onto the few lines you understand. Cultivation, as they say, is about who can stay seated.
Crypto Daily|August 5: Consolidation and Power-Building Amid Volatility
BTC continues to battle around the $64,000 level. In the past 24 hours, the low was $63,382 and the high was $64,549, with a modest gain of less than 1%. ETH holds steady around the $1,862 mark. SOL trades around $73, and XRP around $1.07—both largely rangebound. Across the entire market, liquidations exceed $200 million, with short positions accounting for nearly 70%. The Fear Index stays at 27, still within the fear zone—since late July, this index has been grinding in the 25–29 range for almost two weeks, with the market heavily in a wait-and-see mode.
What’s interesting is that the U.S. stock market is moving completely in the opposite direction: the Dow surged by 900 points, while the S&P and Nasdaq hit fresh all-time highs. There are breakthrough developments in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices pulled back, lifting risk appetite—yet the crypto market didn’t really follow; funds clearly still appear to be waiting for direction. On-chain, an ancient “giant whale” that has been asleep for seven years has moved 2,931 BTC, worth nearly $190 million. However, at present it looks more like wallet consolidation than sell orders being sent to exchanges. Yesterday’s Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows of $210 million, with IBIT alone accounting for $170 million—institutional accumulation hasn’t lost momentum.
In the short term, resistance to watch is near $64,600, around the upper Bollinger Band. Support near $62,500 marks the recent two-week floor. The longer a tightening range continues on shrinking volume, the stronger the eventual breakout tends to be. Practicing like this—staying put until you can catch your own wave.
2026 Football Challenge Tournament has reward opportunities every day. I previously received a 500 SXT Earn Trial Fund, which shows that taking the rewards seriously is definitely worthwhile.
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DeFi infrastructure on-chain has been upgraded a lot over the years, but one link has always been missing—before trades are truly settled, is there a step that can perform pre-checks? Newton Protocol’s Mainnet Beta is filling this gap.
It doesn’t just tell you what happened after the fact; instead, it executes policy decisions before the transaction is committed on-chain. If the criteria pass, it proceeds; if not, it returns a signature proof. In this way, enforcement happens before settlement. An article compares it to an “on-chain economic Visa authorization network,” and that analogy is quite fitting—the decisions made before funds move are more valuable than audits after the fact.
So far, Newton is starting with DeFi treasuries. On-chain treasury size keeps growing, but risk-control rules are scattered across off-chain and fragmented workflows. Newton’s approach is to unify treasury compliance, identity verification, security checks, and risk assessment into a strategy layer that can be executed on-chain. The four execution domains are well covered: compliance via Chainalysis, identity verification and security checks via Hexagate’s real-time interception, risk assessment by integrating oracle data from Credora and RedStone, with underlying security supported by Eigen Labs and Succinct.
The core development team, Magic Labs, has deep experience in the wallet space—50.7M+ wallets, 200K+ developers, backed by PayPal Ventures. Polymarket’s wallet infrastructure is also theirs. Starting from treasuries, it can be extended to authorized scenarios for RWA, stablecoins, and AI agents, as well as a strategy marketplace called the Internet of Policies—there’s plenty of narrative space.
$NEWT is this protocol’s native token. The Vault SDK and the list of launch partners are said to be announced on the 23rd, so you can follow @NewtonProtocol’s updates.
Crypto Daily|July 14: U.S. government transfers coins + whales accumulate
Today, Bitcoin is swinging between 62,000 and 64,000, while major coins are generally down. BTC is around 62,400 intraday, and ETH is around 1,780. The market is mainly pressured by two things: first, tonight’s U.S. CPI data release; second, the U.S. government has transferred the previously seized $288 million worth of BTC and ETH to Coinbase Prime. Although the official statement says it’s just custody, the market is still spooked.
But on-chain, things look quite different. Two giant ETH whales have, in the past 12 hours, snapped up more than 20,000 ETH in one go, worth over $35 million. Well-known Ethereum bull James Fickell also transferred $36.1 million worth of ETH to Coinbase Prime. Robinhood Chain has only been live for two weeks, and its DEX trading volume has already surpassed Ethereum. On-chain meme coin CASHCAT even surged to a market cap of $180 million in just two days. In South Korea, Upbit and Bithumb both listed Derive (DRV), pushing it up by as much as 30%.
Short-term focus: If tonight’s CPI comes in below expectations, it’s positive for risk assets; conversely, if inflation data beats expectations, the probability of the Fed raising rates again in July could climb further. Also, on July 17, the U.S. Senate will hold a hearing on the “CLEAR Act,” and its impact on the crypto regulatory framework may be bigger than the near-term market move. Don’t forget to register for the GRVT airdrop—deadline is July 27.
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