David-1

David's Trading Notes

October 30, 2026
#币安加油
In terms of market action, the Binance hack was the final straw for the crypto market, accelerating the decline by nearly 10% and sending prices straight to the correction level I had originally anticipated.

Technically, I think the pullback has gone far enough. Pullbacks, consolidation, and rallies all take time and space. We have enough price movement, but the slope has been too steep; now the market needs time. The rebound I’m expecting will take longer to develop.

The same applies to the macro picture: earnings reports + midterm elections + U.S.–Iran relations

1. Ethereum $ETH

Intraday today: favor shorting rallies, with dip-buying as a secondary strategy.

Short｜Two levels: 2315 and 2348. Go short only after a bearish engulfing pattern appears on the 5-minute chart.
Long｜Watch 2219. Consider going long only after a sign of support appears on the 5-minute chart. If going long against the trend, always wait for a signal.

2. Broader market $BTC

I think there has been enough downside, but the decline has been too steep, so a rebound needs time to work off the pressure. For now, treat any bounce as an opportunity to short; don’t assume that reaching the correction level means prices will immediately rally.

After an accelerated sell-off, it’s easiest to chase shorts—and just as easy to buy the dip too early. Enough downside doesn’t mean enough time has passed. For shorts, wait for signals at 2315 and 2348; for dip-buying, wait for support at 2219. A rebound will come, but it may take longer than expected.
#Binance

I asked Claude to analyze

The market's movements a week after Bybit was hacked for $1.4 billion

The market's movements a week after it happened

We have to admit, we're really entering another period of volatile correction. Both of the above events happened on a Friday, and today is also a Friday.

I know everyone is feeling quite anxious right now, so let me look at this from a different angle.

In the Binance hack, the assets officially confirmed as frozen so far are worth around $2.5 billion—roughly half of the total amount stolen. Most of the rest is BTC and ETH.

Let’s start with BTC.
The stolen bitcoin is worth over a billion dollars, but turning it into actual selling pressure on the market won’t be easy.

Bitcoin doesn’t have a large mixer with sufficiently deep liquidity like Tornado Cash on ETH. These addresses will also be flagged by major exchanges and blockchain analytics firms, making it much harder to move or cash out the funds than it would be with ETH.

Looking back at major thefts in the past, the bitcoin stolen from Bitfinex in 2016 lay dormant for several years. Of the roughly 1,800 BTC stolen from Coldcard, a hardware wallet manufacturer, this July, 90% had still not moved by early September. The hacker had only swapped out a small portion through cross-chain bridges.

The amount of BTC stolen this time is ten times that. Just splitting up the addresses and finding mixing channels could be a long-term undertaking for bitcoin worth over a billion dollars. They would then also need to consider ways to cash out, such as discounted OTC sales. The whole process could take years.

So, while the stolen BTC is ostensibly bad news, from the perspective of short-term supply it could also amount to a form of lockup.

On the other hand, if Binance uses its SAFU fund to compensate users, it may need to replenish its bitcoin reserves afterward. Taken together, the amount of stolen BTC that actually turns into market selling pressure in the short term could be far smaller than people imagine. Binance replenishing its reserves could even create some buying pressure.

ETH is more complicated.

Many ERC-20 assets are converted into ETH and then obfuscated through Tornado Cash, making them significantly harder to trace and recover.

Overall, the assets that could gradually turn into market selling pressure may be worth over a billion dollars.

Of course, the impact on market confidence is unavoidable. But based on the current asset mix and the difficulty of cashing out on-chain, the direct selling pressure facing bitcoin itself may not be as great as the market imagines.

Finally, I hope that after this incident, the entire industry will take cybersecurity in the AI era seriously.
Security has never been a bonus in a bull market; it is the baseline the entire industry needs in order to grow over the long term.

David's Trading Notes

October 29, 2026

After last night's FOMC meeting, Warsh's neutral remarks, and earnings announcements, Google led a sharp tech rally—but downward. The big rebound across the broader market hasn't come as quickly as expected; more adjustment is still needed.

$ETH
Today's intraday outlook: Mostly adjustment. The correction isn't over yet.

1. Trading range: 2293–2370. Trade whichever way it breaks; try going long or short near either end of the range.

2. Two levels below where a rebound could offer a long entry: 2254 and 2203. Watch the price action and go long if the rebound looks strong. You can place a limit order to go long at 2203, with a 1% stop loss.

II. Outlook

Since the correction isn't over yet, let's not treat the market as having turned bullish. Back in the trading range, 2293–2370 is today's box. Follow whichever way it breaks; trade both sides and stay out of the middle. Be patient during this wide-ranging consolidation. That's all I have to say—off to play some games.

#谷歌财报能否守住基本盘

👑 David’s Trade Review | ETH

Yesterday’s long entry on the pullback to 2332 paid off.

Looking higher, the 2370–2364 zone has remained resistance on the 45-minute chart, with no decisive breakout.

If price can’t break through resistance, don’t blindly chase longs. When price reaches a key level, waiting for signals that align with the market structure is more important than trading on gut instinct.

Catching a move isn’t just about getting the direction right—it’s also about having a plan in place ahead of time.
#ETH #BTC☀️

The decision to keep interest rates unchanged is now official

Next, the focus is on Microsoft and Google’s earnings reports

Importance: top-tier
#微软财报能否兑现ai红利 #谷歌财报能否守住基本盘

🚨Federal Reserve FOMC statement:

The Fed holds steady

Passed by a vote of 10 in favor and 2 opposed

Fewer than three votes

This is bullish, this is bullish #FOMC会议

David’s Trading Notes

October 28, 2026

1. Intraday Plan $ETH

For today’s session: favor buying dips. The triangle consolidation has broken upward.

Long | Watch for a pullback to 2332; go long if a bullish engulfing candle forms on the 5-minute chart.

The purple zone at 2370–74 is key 45-minute resistance. Go long decisively if price closes above it on strong volume.

Short | Keep an eye on 2433, the bulls’ major target. It’s also a level where a brief wick on the lower timeframe (5-minute chart) could offer a short entry.

This is a major macro week: earnings + FOMC + a Warsh speech. Volatility is likely to increase as expectations play out.

2. View

After the triangle broke upward, initially treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Look for a bullish engulfing candle at 2332 before entering. Until price closes above 2370–74 on strong volume, treat the zone as resistance. A breakout would offer another entry opportunity. #微软财报能否兑现ai红利

#币安神算子 Binance's Zhehan, Chaoyang Telecom Bureau, Chen Nadejun—wasn't 100% full, so only noticed it then? What about Maracanã?

When a single trade can cover your travel expenses for the past few months, you realize how far you’ve grown from certain people.

When you can see a mountain clearly, you realize you’re already far away from it.

When you can see a person clearly, it means you’re already far away from them.

When you can see the nature of something clearly—when you can get straight to the point and understand why it says what it says—you’re already far removed from it.

When you read certain news stories and understand what they’re trying to say, you’re already far removed from that kind of garbage news.

When you’ve been through hardship and pain, and find that every step you take afterward goes smoothly, you realize you’ve already come a long way from those hardships.

Let me say it again: now is the best time to go long.

You'd be a fool not to go long—the big one is coming!!!

David’s Trading Notes

October 27, 2026

1. A major macro week

Historically, October 27 to November 3 has been a pretty good period for trading. The market is moving sideways as everyone gets ready and waits for the FOMC.

Today’s intraday plan: Wait. Follow the move after either side breaks out. No giving money away on short-term intraday trades today.

2. Ether $ETH (Chart 1)

Long | Watching 2325; enter after an hourly close above it.
Short | Watching 2280; enter after an hourly close below it.

Ether’s upside breakout target is 2434; the downside breakdown target is 2203. Use these levels to reduce positions and assess strength.

3. Bitcoin $BTC (Chart 2)

Long | Watching 80500; enter after an hourly close above it.
Short | Watching 79000; enter after an hourly close below it.

Bitcoin’s upside breakout target is 82222; the downside target is 77500.

Wait for direction ahead of the FOMC. 2325 and 2280 are Ether’s hourly breakout levels to watch, and 80500 and 79000 are Bitcoin’s. Follow the move after a closing breakout. A big move is coming—stay patient.
#Strategy未购比特币斥资2.05亿美元回购STRC

David’s Trading Notes
#股票财报季
October 26, 2026

Corrections take time and space. I believe this correction is in its final stage. Unless a black swan event occurs, there may not be much more downside.

1. Ethereum $ETH
Intraday today: favor buying at lows, with selling at highs as a secondary strategy.

1. Consider going long at 2320: wait for a bullish engulfing pattern on the 5-minute chart before entering, and try an intraday swing trade. Set a stop-loss if the price falls below 2292. (Chart 1)

2. If the price breaks below that level, consider building long positions at two levels below: 2251 and 2203. These are potential entries for major daily-chart swing trades, where some leverage may be appropriate. (Chart 2)

Intraday long positions are countertrend, so wait for rebounds to be confirmed at each level. Only consider entering a long after a bullish engulfing signal appears; don’t enter blindly.

These posts are just my personal trading notes, not investment advice.

The integration of the two algorithms is nearly complete.

A simple explanation of how the two algorithms work is shown in Figure 1. The actual algorithms are much more complex.

During this altcoin rally, our models detected a collective weakening of Buy Pressure resonance for the first time. This was concentrated between September 28 and early October, when the little assistant had already posted alerts in the channel.

Looking back with the new feature, buy-side weakening signals for most coins were concentrated 15–30 days ago (left side of Figure 2).

Using Cat’s Double Divergence parameters, the timing actually comes out more or less the same.

Aside from the strongest performer, NEAR, the signals were mostly concentrated 10–25 days ago (right side of Figure 2).

There’s a key comparison in Figure 2. You’ll notice that:

The Crypto365 little assistant’s “collective buy-side weakening + added to momentum tracking” notification:

Usually corresponds to around the first top.

Cat’s Double Top Divergence alert usually appears days to weeks after buy-side weakening:

It’s closer to the second top.

Since double divergence takes time to confirm, it’s normal for it to appear later.

The advantage is that it can help avoid selling too early or shorting too soon.

So far, Cat’s parameters seem better suited to assessing strong coins.

For example, after the little assistant first reported buy-side weakening across a large number of coins and added them to its one-week momentum tracking notifications, MET and PYTH went on to rally significantly further.

Cat’s approach, by contrast, identified them closer to the final leg of the uptrend.

After reviewing the past few days and developing the new feature, here’s what I’ve concluded:

For the average Bro, the channel’s existing “buy-side weakening notification + little assistant alert” feature is enough, as long as you’re not trying to sell at the exact peak and are satisfied with getting an alert around the left shoulder of a head-and-shoulders top.

But for Bros who want to be precise—especially those who like to short—Cat’s parameters can help with the analysis, since you may have to endure less choppy price action near the top.

We’re currently integrating Cat’s parameters into the Crypto365 little assistant’s notification system as well.

The existing collective buy-side weakening tracking list will remain available.

Cat’s collective divergence signals can be used as additional confirmation of tops and bottoms.

The above is only a feature release log and a summary of our review.

DYOR / NFA

Er Bing is a big meanie. Whatever—may Er Bing be happy every day. —Shenzhen’s Crypto King

Here’s a hot take:
#黄金自7月以来首次跌破4000美元
If you don’t gamble, you’re betting on yourself to lose.

You think you’re not gambling, but you’ve been taking bets all along.

I’m not betting money. I’m betting my time and energy.

I invest my most precious time in things I believe can succeed in the future.

If they don’t succeed in the end, then I’ve lost the bet.

And compared with money, the cost is often much greater.

Because you can earn back money you lose, but once time has passed, it never comes back.

So there’s no such thing as “you win by not betting.”

You may not bet money, but you’re betting your time;
You may not take risks, but you’re betting that you won’t regret it;
And not making a choice is a choice in itself.

If you’re unwilling to stake anything, how can you expect to win?

If you never dare to sit down at the table, you’ll spend your whole life watching others place their bets.

David’s Trading Notes
#股票财报季
October 23, 2026

Bitcoin came back down yesterday just as it had gone up the night before last. It failed to break through 833 in one go, and risk assets came under heavy pressure. Let’s talk about Bitcoin and Ethereum.

1. Positions / Intraday Plan

For today: prioritize selling rallies, with buying dips as a secondary strategy.

Ethereum $ETH

Shorts｜Two levels
1) Purple zone at 2421–24: go short if a bearish engulfing pattern forms on the 5-minute chart.
2) Go short at 2448 if upward momentum stalls on a smaller timeframe.

Longs｜One level
1) Go long at 2388 only if a bullish engulfing pattern forms on the 5-minute chart; enter on confirmation.

Bitcoin $BTC
As long as the daily candle closes above 81333, I wouldn’t look for a pullback; the bullish trend remains intact.

2. Outlook

As long as Bitcoin’s daily close remains above 81333, the broader bullish trend is unchanged. Intraday shorts are only for trading a rebound, not for betting against the trend.

Likewise, I don’t think we’re at the point where we need to scoop up bloodied chips. There’s still room to calculate an entry and how much profit or loss you can tolerate. David is here to give you that confidence boost.

👑 David’s Trade Review

Yesterday’s ETH short at 2508 hit the mark. If you know, you know—profits were massive!

The market gave us the opportunities we were looking for;
we followed the plan exactly as laid out.

Mark key levels in advance. Wait for price to reach them, then act on the signals.

Review the results; focus on the process when trading.

Daily BTC / ETH plans are updated regularly.

#股票财报季 David's Trading Notes

October 22, 2026

I. Open Positions / Intraday Plan

Yesterday, BTC tried to break out of its range but failed. It is now back below 833. The most obvious feeling from the market is that it's being dragged down by the broader market—the frustrating sense that it just can't get going.

Today's intraday outlook: Both longs and shorts are tradable; focus mainly on short-term trades.

$ETH

Long｜Watching two levels: 2428 and 2411. Enter only if a bullish engulfing pattern forms on the 5-minute chart; no signal, no trade.

Short｜Two levels: 2474 and 2508. Go short if momentum stalls on a lower timeframe. A 1% stop-loss is enough. Again, no signal, no trade. Don't keep taking hits by entering early.

The short from 2508 last night went very smoothly, and the setup remains valid today.

II. Outlook

I currently think the correction isn't over yet, but it's close. I'm very familiar with this feeling of being on the verge of a move. Stay active and keep position sizing consistent. Big profits come from trending markets; intraday trades are short-term bets that build up the cost of positioning for a trend.

Build a trading system, learn trading techniques, and stay patient. Once you catch a trend, it won't keep you up at night.