David-1

$ETH Technical Analysis

1. In the macro outlook, tonight’s big Non-Farm Payroll data. The market is currently ranging and consolidating. The delayed vote on the Clean-up Bill hasn’t had much reaction either—this is actually good news.

2. For today’s intraday plan, the main focus is buying on pullbacks at lows, with selling at highs as a secondary approach. During midday, the market is ranging between 1915 and 1894. Wait patiently for it to break out of the range. From the two lower levels 1887 and 1876, enter long when the downside stops.

3. The two higher levels—1938 and 1963—are the sell/short areas. Be careful of sharp spikes that could trigger a short squeeze—“needle-like” spikes can blow up shorts.

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#美国初请失业金人数维持20万以下

$ETH Intra-day thoughts

1. Today’s intra-day bias is mainly long. After breaking through the ranging/sideways zone, the long side has started to rebound. The short side’s last line of defense mentioned before—before 1930—has not been broken yet and is still effective.

2. If price comes back up again, place a bearish entry around 1930 with a red candle to try shorting. If there is a breakout above 1930 on strong volume, consider chasing longs with a target at 1963. 1963 is also a major-level pivot between long and short.

3. If the long side isn’t very strong and price slowly rises to 1963, you can consider setting a pending short order with a $15 stop-loss. The risk-reward ratio is 1:2.

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#美ADP7月私营就业逊预期

#韩国税改未延后加密征税

Is Dad’s way of thinking useful—still looking for the Holy Grail? #eth

$ETH evening thoughts

1. Evening is mainly for range fluctuations, with low-buy as a secondary strategy. The daytime market is boring—no movement.

2. Currently, it is consolidating in the 1861-78 range. After a volume-backed breakout above 1878, consider going long on the pullback. Targets: 1905, 1930.

Remember: buy when you’re in pain.
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I’ll take you through the bull-bear cycle

Your good brother be like: Ah, bro, these past few days you’ve really screwed me over badly. How are you?

You: Ah, I already cleared it.

Your good brother be like: Don’t say that, don’t say that.

You: At the highest point, I already bailed.

Your good brother be like: Fucking bastard—why didn’t you call me to withdraw together?

You: No, I already had you clear it.

Your good brother be like: Why didn’t you hold my head down and make me clear it?

You: I held your head down so you could clear it. You said it has a bright future.

Your good brother be like: Are you sure?

You: You said it would rise sooner or later—you said you could hold on to it. I can’t hold on anymore.

Your brother be like: Don’t say that, don’t say that. Why are you so selfish?

You: Kiss one kiss—come on, come on.
#美股超话 #美光 #SK hynix

$BTC Intraday Thoughts

1. The big pancake (BTC) is moving a bit stronger than the second one (ETH). In the case of divergence, there is a rebound requirement—so we have demand for a rebound.

2. In Figure 1, at the two positions 64750 and 65300, take short entries on small timeframes that show stagnation/locking up.

$ETH

1. The pressure zone in the purple area is still effective. As usual: don’t exceed three times—there’s an opportunity to test each position three times.

2. The long-bid (55) being discussed inside is a game. The target is the pressure-zone area to reduce position/ take profit. A good habit is to leave 20% as a bottom position.

3. Today’s intraday: continue watching the two short opportunities at 1904 and 1930. For the Europe/US sessions, if price breaks the pressure zone and then fails to hold on the retest, enter a long position. Target: 1930!

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Waited all day yesterday, placed a single order

At a floating position, when the risk-reward ratio is hard to determine

I usually reduce the position at a 1:2 ratio, move the stop-loss up to my cost, and let the core position float

Stay patient and wait
be patient my friend！

$ETH
2026.8.3
This week the strategy focuses on pullbacks—go long on dips as the primary approach, with shorts on rallies as a secondary one.
Last week closed with a bearish candle. On the daily timeframe, resistance was not broken, and liquidity is not strong.

1. Today’s intraday plan: primarily go long on dips, with shorts as a secondary approach.

2. As shown in the purple zone, 1875 is the key long/short dividing line. If price rebounds up but then prints a bearish candle indicating a downturn, consider going short. Below, the two green-line levels 1815 and 1801 are key intraday long pullback rebound zones. After a five-minute bullish engulfing (yang wraps yin), consider going long.

3. The lowest level at 1745 has a pending buy order. This is the key trigger point for longs. Set a stop loss of 20 USD and aim to capture swing-trading profits.

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August Key Events

1⃣ On August 7, the U.S. will release the July Non-Farm Payrolls. On August 12, CPI will be released. On August 20, the Federal Reserve will publish the meeting minutes. On August 27, the Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Conference will be held.

There is no FOMC rate decision in August, so the Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI are more like groundwork for Jackson Hole at the end of the month.

The market has grown a bit tired—there’s already been too much trading on rate-cut expectations. What people really want to see now is whether the policy framework of the Wacher era becomes clearer at Jackson Hole.

Whether Crypto can keep “living off” easy policy expectations depends on this.

2⃣ Another external variable in August that the crypto world can’t get around: AI earnings reports.

On August 26, Nvidia will release its Q2 2026 earnings. Before that, there will be a whole lineup of reports, including AMD, SpaceX, Circle, American Bitcoin, Hut 8, and others.

AI has already become the main power switch for global risk assets.

If Nvidia’s earnings continue to beat expectations and U.S. equities maintain a risk-on bias, $BTC is unlikely to look too bad as well.

3⃣ Shadow demand and weak assets that emerged during the bull market are still getting flushed out!

Tokens in the previous high-FDV model are about to enter a phase of concentrated unlocks;
meanwhile, a batch of entry-focused, front-end, tools, and NFT/DeFi long-tail projects are also exiting the stage.

It’s kind of amazing that only now I realize there are so many projects—many of which, even until they shut down, I’d never heard of!

Needless to say, the market for copycat coins is likely to become even more chaotic next.

Great athletes and great achievers all have this one characteristic.
Great athletes and outstanding achievers all share this one quality.

They have the ability to forget the last moment.
They have the ability to let go of the previous moment.

The US stock market next door is singing and dancing again, while the crypto world can only pick up trash😭

$ETH Intraday Thoughts

1. The 1910-30 range oscillation I mentioned last night: it kept making 30+ wick pierces without breaking through. Today’s intraday bias is mainly range-bound oscillation.

2. The 1872 support has been working well. At that level, you can still go long after a five-minute bullish engulfing; set the stop at the lowest price of the bullish candle. At 1847, a key turning point, stop the selloff on the smaller timeframe and go long.

3. Place long orders at 1815 and 1802. You can combine them into one position, or take partial stops.

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$ETH Intraday Thoughts

1. On the macro side: After a high-level range-bound consolidation, 1926 failed to break through three times. Going into tonight, we mainly focus on the upper range.

2. For the rebound: 1910-20 dips with wicks that then engulf bullishly (bear candle engulfed by a bullish candle) are considered OK. Only when a strong bullish candle breaks above this level do we consider going long.

3. For the support below: 1873-68—on a 5-minute chart, a bullish candle engulfing a bearish one is a long setup. The profit opportunity from last night’s idea: 1876-73, then it bounced up to the 72 area, creating room for profit.

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Last night, at the Fed’s rate decision meeting, Chair Powell ultimately did not raise rates. He directly used the market as a shield, saying that bond yields had already been running up on their own—that financial conditions had effectively tightened. In other words, the market had already done the job of a rate hike in advance, so the Fed could hold off for now and do nothing.

On the surface, his words were still tough: one “we won’t waver in fighting inflation,” after another “we will act decisively when the time comes,” sounding very hawkish. But in reality, his back-up plan was still more dovish. When it really came time to raise rates, he found excuses to delay again and again. The result: the market simply wasn’t buying it.

Put plainly, the market is now driving the tightening pace itself, and the Fed is increasingly looking like an observer trailing behind—its presence and importance keep dropping.
#Fed maintains rates unchanged 9-3

$ETH Today’s Thoughts

1. Tonight, the Fed’s July policy meeting is upon us. Where there is controversy, there is volatility—manage risk

2. Last night, the two pierces at 1926 provided room for profit. This afternoon, the bearish engulfing after an upward thrust signals a short for now; if the 1873–76 range holds and does not break the bullish engulfing after the bearish pattern, then go long

3. The big targets are two levels above: 2033 and 2069—key points for the bull-bear transition

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This week may be a phase-turning point for the overall market trend. Just now, during my morning exercise, I整理了思路 and wrote this for you. It’s done with great care—purely handwritten X text. I hope you’ll respect the results of my labor and give it a one-click triple (like, share, and subscribe) or something similar.

Let’s review: “News (information) is important, but even more important is how the assets in our hands perform when the news (information) shows up. News shouldn’t be the first piece of evidence that drives us to place trades; instead, it should serve as evidence to validate whether our trading logic is correct after we enter the trade.” Compared to being the main driver, it’s more suitable as a validator.

Right now, the main lines of logic are:

1⃣️ Geopolitics, the U.S.-Iran war: First, the conclusion: as long as the U.S.-Iran war is not visibly escalating and instead follows the previous pattern of fighting while negotiating—using conflict to push talks—then for the current price action, the impact on other underlying assets besides crude oil will be increasingly smaller. After stating the conclusion, there’s basically nothing more to say. If one sentence can explain it clearly, I won’t add much—key point!

2⃣️ AI hardware: It has been the hottest “explosive” sector for the past half year to even a year, drawing the majority of market hype and capital. So when this sector is in a correction phase, if other sectors don’t have their own narrative/positive catalysts, then even if the price has already dropped to a “proper” level, they still won’t dare to rebound (you know who I mean). Because globally, assets priced in USD are interconnected. Today, Hynix’s earnings report: it fell first and then rose. I think this is a pretty clear signal.

3⃣️ The only remaining “shoe” that hasn’t dropped yet is tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. But honestly, given the market’s extremely pessimistic state in the near term, I think the market has already priced in a large portion of tomorrow’s FOMC-related negative impact. As for policy and the Federal Reserve—that part, I’m not very professional.

Conclusion:

If the three analyses above have no major issues, then:

1⃣️ The hardware sector will likely see a rebound targeting the first wave of the selloff after tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, or sometime next week.

2⃣️ Bitcoin (big BTC) leading the crypto market will push through and make a second leg higher. The rebound target is 71852.

3⃣️ As for other things, I don’t know—I only trade these two areas, so I’ll only talk about these two.

1. At night, consider placing orders at the two upper positions 1962 and 2033; consider keeping the order open (pending); stop loss 15 USD

2. A risk-reward ratio of 1:2 or above is more suitable. For short positions, since it is against the trend currently, it is better to hold from shorter to longer (i.e., take the position from short duration to longer duration)
$ETH

Also anticipated the dog zhuang's prediction

As for the “Ma Qian Pao” part

$ETH

$ETH technical analysis!

1. Today’s intraday approach is mainly short at higher levels, with long on pullbacks as a secondary option. The macro and weekly news backdrop has a high weight—stay cautious, sensitive to price action.

2. Two short entry points: 1909 and 1926. At these levels, expect a 5-minute wick piercing then a bearish engulfing (negative engulfing) that turns into a drop—doing this gives a signal. The position mentioned earlier at 1872 is currently seeing a small rebound.

3. If 1872 retests again, enter a long with a high-volume bullish candle. Set the stop loss at the bottom of that bullish candle.

More ideas are in the Binance homepage group—follow me.
I will definitely be your treasure!
#以太坊逼近2000美元

$ETH
Short-term intraday: watch two levels

1896-1893 and 1872

If a five-minute chart shows a bullish engulfing candle at these levels, you may consider going long