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March payrolls beat forecasts by a wide margin, boosting the US Dollar.Softer services data failed to offset the impact of strong jobs figures.Traders trimmed dovish Fed bets as Treasury yields edged higher.
The GBP/USD extended its losses for the second straight day, down 0.12% after a stellar US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could refocus the Federal Reserve on battling higher inflation that has remained above target for five years. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.3205.
Strong payrolls and firmer yields keep Sterling on the back foot
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) revealed that the economy created over 178K jobs in March, crushing forecasts of 60K. Despite the positive reading, February’s print was further downwardly revised to -133K, but on a positive note, the Unemployment Rate also fell to 4.3%, down from 4.4%. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the American currency's performance versus six peers, is up a minimal 0.12% and back above the 100.00 handle amid growing speculation that the Fed would maintain steady interest rates as the Middle East conflict prolongs.
Recently, the US S&P Global Services PMI contracted in March for the first time since January 23, falling from 51.7 in February to 49.8. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote: “The PMI survey data show the US economy buckling under the strain of rising prices and intensifying uncertainty, as the war in the Middle East exacerbates existing concerns regarding other policy decisions in recent months, notably with respect to tariffs.”
Williamson commented that the stagflationary environment of no growth and surging prices is a challenge for policymakers, as the S&P survey revealed a slowdown in employment.
Data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) showed investors trimmed dovish bets and predicted the Fed would hold rates flat for the year. US Treasury yields, particularly the 2-year, edged higher following the NFP release.
GBP/USD price analysis: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3205. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the clustered Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) surrounding 1.3550, confirming a loss of upside momentum after repeated failures along the descending resistance trendline that started at 1.3869. Price has also slipped away from the prior series of higher supported closes along the rising trendline from 1.3035, shifting the focus toward defending recent lows rather than extending gains. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index continues to grind higher, underscoring a firmer US Dollar backdrop that keeps rallies in GBP/USD vulnerable while the pair trades beneath the broken resistance zone.
Initial resistance emerges at the psychological 1.3300 region, where prior rebounds stalled ahead of the descending trendline, followed by 1.3400 and then the 1.3500 area aligning with the grouped moving averages that cap the upside. On the downside, immediate support is at 1.3200, just below the current price, with a break exposing 1.3100 and then the 1.3035 rising trendline origin. A daily close below this latter band would confirm a deeper bearish extension, while recovery above 1.3400 would ease the immediate downside pressure and open a broader retracement toward 1.3500.#GBPUSD #GBP $GBP

USD/JPY under pressure as intervention fears cap gains despite a firm US Dollar.Markets remain cautious near the 160 level amid persistent warnings from Japanese authorities.Solid US data support US Dollar and strengthen expectations that Fed could keep rates unchanged for longer.USD/JPY trades with a mild downside bias on Friday as lingering intervention fears support the Japanese Yen (JPY), even as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm against its major peers following the upside surprise in US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Thin liquidity conditions due to the Good Friday holiday are also contributing to muted and choppy price action.At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 159.57, easing modestly after a brief spike to 159.82 in reaction to the US labor data.
According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 178K jobs in March, beating expectations of 60K, while the Unemployment Rate ticked lower to 4.3% from 4.4%. February’s figure was also revised lower to show a loss of 133K jobs, compared to the previously reported decline of 92K, highlighting recent volatility in the labor market.
Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.2% MoM in March, below the 0.3% forecast and down from 0.4% previously. On an annual basis, Average Hourly Earnings increased by 3.5%, missing expectations of 3.7% and slowing from 3.8%.
The stronger-than-expected headline print supported expectations that the Federal Reserve(Fed) will keep rates unchanged for longer, with markets largely pricing out rate cuts amid Oil-driven inflation risks stemming from the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran.
However, business activity data painted a softer picture, with the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) easing to 50.3 in March from 51.9 in February, marking its weakest level since September 2023. Meanwhile, the Services PMI fell to 49.8, below the flash estimate of 51.1, signaling contraction and the lowest reading in over three years.
The soft PMI print did little to weigh on the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 100.15, extending gains for the second straight day.
Even so, USD/JPY struggles to draw support. Traders remain wary near the 160 level, as Japanese authorities have repeatedly signaled readiness to act against excessive volatility, keeping gains capped despite underlying US Dollar strength.#usdjpy #Japanese

AUD/USD pares gains as strong US jobs data supports the US Dollar.
Holiday-thinned liquidity keeps price action muted despite NFP upside surprise.
Strong US jobs data gives the Fed room to keep interest rates unchanged for longer.
AUD/USD reverses earlier gains on Friday as stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data supports the US Dollar (USD), adding modest pressure on the Australian Dollar (AUD), while price action remains subdued amid thin liquidity due to the Good Friday holiday.

At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading around 0.6900, after touching an intraday high of 0.6916. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is consolidating gains above the 100 mark.

According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 178K jobs in March, comfortably exceeding expectations of 60K. Notably, February’s figure was revised lower to show a loss of 133K jobs, compared to the previously reported decline of 92K. The Unemployment Rate ticked lower to 4.3% from 4.4%.

Despite the strong headline print, softer wage growth offered a more balanced picture. Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.2% MoM in March, below the 0.3% forecast and easing from 0.4% previously. On an annual basis, earnings increased by 3.5%, missing expectations of 3.7% and slowing from 3.8%.

The data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain patient before delivering any rate cuts, as ongoing Oil-driven inflation risks continue to cloud the policy outlook. This has prompted traders to scale back rate cut expectations and increasingly price in a prolonged hold, with markets now expecting rates to remain unchanged through 2026, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Elsewhere, traders also digested the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, released earlier on Friday, which showed the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rising to 50.4 in March, up from 49 previously and above expectations of 50.1. Australia’s economy is closely tied to China, its largest trading partner, making the Australian Dollar sensitive to shifts in Chinese economic activity.
#NFP #US $AUD #AustraliaCrypto

Learn to calculate risks in crypto trading and apply the scalping intraday strategy
Lot calculation for crypto trading
In this lesson, you'll learn how to use Bitcoin's volatility to your advantage and calculate risks—to get the most out of your deposit.
🟢 A hidden opportunity: cryptocurrencies vs. Forex
Trading crypto via CFDs with 1:500 leverage provides several professional advantages.
Capital efficiency. You can control a large position with a very small deposit (margin). Your margin remains free, allowing you to trade multiple assets at once. Diversification is key to a professional portfolio.Master the risk control. Trading Gold is 'expensive'—a small price move can quickly hit your stop loss. Crypto allows for much finer adjustments, giving you more breathing space to survive market fluctuations.24/7 market access. Unlike Forex or metals, which close on weekends, the crypto market never sleeps. You can trade on Saturdays and Sundays, so you can fit your strategy into any schedule.
🟢 Master lot calculation
To trade with precision, you should understand exactly how much each price movement earns you. The information below is based on real market data from our platform.
BTCUSD (0.01 lot). A price movement of $100 results in exactly $1 of profit or loss. Rule: a $1 price move in BTC = $0.01 profit per 0.01 lot.ETHUSD (0.01 lot). A price movement of $100 results in exactly $10 of profit or loss. Rule: a $1 price move in ETH = $0.10 profit per 0.01 lot.
Tip: Ethereum is 'heavier' than Bitcoin at the same lot size. Always check your point value before opening a trade.
🟢 How to apply the 2% risk rule
Professional trading is about quality, not quantity. If your deposit is $100, never risk more than 2% ($2) per trade.
This table shows the stop-loss distance you have for a $2 risk when trading the minimum 0.01 lot:

The crypto advantage: in Bitcoin, a $2 risk allows for a wide $200 price fluctuation. In gold, that same $2 risk is hit by a tiny $2 market flicker, making it much harder for beginners to stay in the trade without getting stopped out prematurely.
💳 Funding your account
To start practising, fund your account using USDT (TRC-20).
Go to the Deposit section of your profile.
Select Tether (TRC-20) to ensure the lowest transaction fees and fastest speed.
Copy your unique address and send the funds from your wallet.
💪 Mastering these steps will help you trade the crypto market with the confidence of a pro.
Leveraged trading involves risk. This content is not investment advice. Trade responsibly.

Lesson 2
Scalping intraday strategy
In this lesson, you will learn a powerful intraday strategy that you can test and apply to your own trading.
🟢 Step 1. Set up your workspace
To use this strategy, we need to add a 'trend filter' to your chart. We will use the SMA 20 (Simple Moving Average).
Here's how to add the indicator:
Open your chart. Select the m5 (5-minute) timeframe.Indicators. Click on the Indicators button (fx) in the left panel of your OctaTrader terminal and search for Simple Moving Average (SMA).Settings. Click the gear icon (⚙️) next to the SMA name at the bottom left of the chart.Edit the SMA settings as follows — Length: 20,Source: Close.Click the Save button.

🟢 Step 2. Spot the Buy signal (long position)
For a Buy trade, follow the requirements below:
The breakout. A green candle must cross the SMA 20 from below and close decisively above it.The retest. Wait for the price to return and touch (or come very close to) the SMA 20 line.The confirmation. Once the price touches the line, wait for the very next green candle to appear. This is your signal to enter.
Risk management:
Entry. Open your trade at the close of the confirmation green candle.Stop Loss. Place it just below the Recent Swing Low (the lowest point of the last minor dip before the breakout).Take Profit. Use a 1:2 Risk/Reward ratio (e.g., if your risk is $10, your target profit should be $20).

🟢 Step 3. Spot the Sell signal (short position)
Scalping allows you to profit even when prices fall. For a Sell trade, mirror the following logic:
The breakout. A red candle must cross the SMA 20 from above and close decisively below it.The retest. Wait for the price to rise back and touch the SMA 20 line from below.The confirmation. Wait for the very next red candle to appear after the retest.
Risk management
Entry. Open your trade at the close of the confirmation red candle.Stop Loss. Place it just above the Recent Swing High.Take Profit. Use a 1:2 Risk/Reward ratio (e.g., if your risk is $10, your target profit should be $20).

🟢 Trading psychology: With a 1:2 Risk/Reward ratio, you only need a 40% win rate to be profitable. This means even if you lose 6 out of 10 trades, you will still be in profit. We recommend testing this strategy on at least 20 demo trades before going live.
Two factors influence the profit—win rate and the Risk/Reward ratio (R/R). These two parameters determine whether your trading activity is profitable (P), breakeven (B/E), or not profitable (N/P).
The table below explains how you can grow or stabilise your income.
Check yourself: scalping execution steps:
Set your chart to m5 and confirm the SMA 20 is active.
Identify the breakout. Look for a candle closing on the opposite side of the line.
Wait for the retest. Never chase the price, let it come back to the 'mirror' line.
Wait for confirmation. Only enter when a candle of the trade's direction appears after the touch.
Calculate your exit. Your take profit must be exactly 2 times larger than your risk.
💳 Funding your account
To start practising, fund your account using USDT (TRC-20).
Go to the Deposit section of your profile.
Select Tether (TRC-20) to ensure the lowest transaction fees and fastest speed.
Copy your unique address and send the funds from your wallet.

💪 Mastering these steps will help you trade intraday movements with the precision of a professional.
Leveraged trading involves risk. This content is not investment advice. Trade responsibly.