DaanCrypto

$BTC The long term trend has been very clean. But recently, Bitcoin has struggled to break its current all time high region and has stalled out for now.

The Bull Market Support band is coming in right below and would be a good support area to watch in case price were to re-visit it at some point. This can be soon, this can be later. Meanwhile, the band moves up with price.

The cycle has now gone on for quite a while so holding on to the bull market support band will be critical to keep this cycle's momentum going.

$BTC The past month, Bitcoin Spot ETFs have taken in over $5B in net inflows.

Saylor bought about $2.2B and other companies like $GME have bought at least another 2B+.

Likely contributing to a $10B+ net inflow from ETFs and companies.

Meanwhile, price is still at thhe same level it was at 1 month ago.

If the inflows keep going then that's good as eventually you'll chew through the supply.

But if those were to stop or turn around, that could become a problem as we have seen the same thing every time since the ETFs are live. Big inflows + No price progression = Eventually leads to a local top being created.

Long term I would say that every billion bought by ETFs and Saylor is another billion away from willing sellers and that is definitely bullish in the larger timeframe. But short term it's always a reason for caution for me when price is not moving with massive inflows (or outflows).

$BTC The past month, Bitcoin Spot ETFs have taken in over $5B in net inflows.

Saylor bought about $2.2B and other companies like $GME have bought at least another 2B+.

Likely contributing to a $10B+ net inflow from ETFs and companies.

Meanwhile, price is still at the same level it was at 1 month ago.

If the inflows keep going then that's good as eventually you'll chew through the supply.

But if those were to stop or turn around, that could become a problem as we have seen the same thing every time since the ETFs are live. Big inflows + No price progression = Eventually leads to a local top being created.

Long term I would say that every billion bought by ETFs and Saylor is another billion away from willing sellers and that is definitely bullish in the larger timeframe. But short term it's always a reason for caution for me when price is not moving with massive inflows (or outflows).

This week is one of the clearest examples of how narrative follows price and not the other way around.

🔹 $BTC Green on the day: “Middle-Eastern conflict deal will be made soon! Buy the dip! Non-event!”

🔹 $BTC Red on the day: “WW3 imminent! Escalation soon! Did you sell already?”

Shows you why you should make your own assumptions and ideas. If you’re following the sentiment of the day or hour even, you will get chopped up and washed out in this environment.

Measure your risk/reward in all scenario’s and make choices accordingly.

$ETH Price action is compressing right below this big $2.8K level.

If we'd see a convincing break above $2.8K and hold there, that would be a good setup for a move to the cycle highs around ~$4K.

If we do lose this current range then $2.1K is the big high timeframe level to watch.

No reason to get over excited in either direction until this current consolidation/compression resolves.

$BTC Been taking out quite some liquidity above from the price action during the weekend and the hedges that build up into it.

Below, $104K is the level to watch if price were to roll over.

FOMC on wednesday as well so keep that one in mind.

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$BTC Is trading near the middle of it's currently monthly range.

The current distance between the low and the high is ~10%. In the past 4 years, 100% of months have seen a bigger monthly displacement than this.

This means it is very likely that either of these levels will get taken out this month so keep an eye out for that.

I would like to add that I do think the next breakout will also likely be the larger move and that I doubt price will just do a sweep and go the other way. Betting on momentum forming on this next break.

$BTC Is trading near the middle of it's currently monthly range.

The current distance between the low and the high is ~10%. In the past 4 years, 100% of months have seen a bigger monthly displacement than this.

This means it is very likely that either of these levels will get taken out this month so keep an eye out for that.

I would like to add that I do think the next breakout will also likely be the larger move and that I doubt price will just do a sweep and go the other way. Betting on momentum forming on this next break.

$BTC.D Shows no signs of stopping. This will only get harder with each treasury company trying to stack more BTC while many alts are plagued with big unlocks and downtrending momentum.

We saw a short squeeze last month on $ETH which took a lot of coins with it but as expected the momentum quickly faded afterwards as there wasn't sufficient spot bid to bid most of these coins up further.

I say this on a regular basis but pick your altcoin investments wisely. Most of them will underperform BTC over a larger timeframe.

Pretty insane that $ETH Open Interest denominated in ETH, is basically at an all time high.

The recent move this week alone saw a $2.5B+ increase and full retrace in Open Interest as longs aped into the $2.8K resistance and price saw a full retrace quickly after.

$BTC This weekly candle shows one things and that's indecisiveness.

Last week we saw a failed breakdown and bounce from the $100K level. This week we saw the opposite paired with some good headlines initially followed by bad ones.

What we end up with is a pretty flat week with big wicks.

My way of navigating this is to remain on the cautious side until we get a convincing break and hold above $108K. This has not happened yet and until then I will sit on the stables I have with lower spot exposure (but still some).

$TOTAL Market Cap remains stuck within this range.

We saw some short visits & sweeps above and below but overall it's pretty much stuck in the same place for the past 5 weeks.

$BTC Weekend time!

I will however say that even though it could, I would not bet on this just chopping sideways like we usually see.

There's a lot of headline risk that can make price move this weekend with all the uncertainty everywhere.

Crypto is also the only 24/7 market available to respond to these things so that usually exaggerates it even more if there's something important.

Good weekend to just spectate I think.

$BTC Pretty large amount of liquidation clusters on both sides now.

Just be wary of any new headlines (good or bad) that might stir things up. Markets don't move in a "regular" way when there's a lot of uncertainty and headline risk.

Especially during low liquidity weekends.

The $ETH Weekly candles are crazy. We've closed the past 6 weeks within a ~3% range.

Meanwhile, we have seen wicks towards both sides of up to 10% in both directions moving with a lot of volatility.

ETF inflows have been at their all time highs but there doesn't seem to be much progress in terms of price yet.

$BTC Took the liquidity above and below in this local price range.

Already starting to trade more like the choppy (pre)summer environment I imagined it to be. This is usually the case and is still my base case.

Don't chop yourself up in the next few weeks/months.

The $TOTAL Altcoin Market Cap vs $BTC is still showing very little signs of life.

The last decent rally was post elections when this crawled back some of the relative losses it has made over the past 3+ years.

BTC remains the best overall performing asset.

There's plenty of outperformers out there but you must pick them wisely and carefully. Otherwise you're often better of holding BTC.

$SOL Bounced from its Weekly 200MA/EMA back in April.

From there on out it has seen a solid bounce but stalled in recent weeks as the meme coin environment wasn't great.

But with yesterday's news about a potential ETF approval soon, it has put some life back into this and many SOL memes as well.

Big level above remains that ~$200 area after which I think we'll give the all time high another go.

Until then, the past year and a half have roughly traded around this price region so it's safe to assume it remains choppy until we get a clean break.

$AAVE Still a pretty insane chart.

Ranged for 2 years, broke out last year but came down to retest the range high again.

From there on out it has not looked back and DeFi in general has been strong and enjoying the recent $ETH strength.

$450 is the big level here for some big high timeframe rally. Probably good to keep that level on your chart as that could kick off the real craziness at some point.