灯塔说

Tonight, Wash spoke at the Global Central Bank Policy Forum with a very optimistic tone.
Tonight, ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll data release, positive signals were released early.
This catalyst came earlier and stronger than I expected.
It helped my long positions achieve comprehensive profits.

Let me briefly summarize the core points Wash made:
1. Inflation risks have already declined—not because of a recession-driven decline in inflation, but because the expansion on the supply side has pulled inflation down. This is benign and structural disinflation. It has loosened rate-hike expectations.
2. Wash personally hopes that the Federal Reserve will reduce the size of its balance sheet. This is not what the market or the government wants—it’s a very important stance issue.

He wants to shrink the balance sheet, but is constrained by politics. At the same time, he also said the Fed’s balance sheet has reached the boundary of fiscal policy—meaning the balance sheet scale is already at a critical point. If it expands further, it would no longer be monetary policy; it would be a form of indirect fiscal financing. He hopes to rein it in somewhat.

Overall, the signal Wash released tonight is still quite “dovish.” This will cool expectations for rate hikes this year.
But this is only what he said out loud.

The key point is still tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll data and next week’s CPI data.
If the data can support what Wash said tonight and rate-hike expectations are reduced, that would be very important for boosting today’s weak crypto and gold markets.

Conversely, if Non-Farm Payrolls are strong and next week’s CPI inflation does not show any所谓 decline, then the market will simply forget what Wash said tonight.
【The above are personal views only and do not constitute any investment advice】

Basic fundamentals analysis expectations for tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls
The results were delivered earlier tonight by remarks from the Fed’s Waller
And it turned out to be even more dovish!
$BTC $XAU $MU

Mid-trade review:
Yesterday I shared some logic and reminders for opening positions.
In BTC and ETH, the long positions have been oscillating back and forth; the low-level battles are still ongoing.
BTC is now under pressure below the 60K level, but the “sweeping” of liquidity at lower lows and the logic behind buy-side resistance still remain—though it’s only in the act of countering the shorts.
At present, this consolidation suggests that the continuation of the shorts versus the buyers needs a new fundamental catalyst.
And the recent catalyst is tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data.
This is reference data for rate-hike expectations and the most direct factor affecting market movements.
I lean toward NFP coming in below expectations, causing the USD to pull back—then pulling down US stocks and triggering a rebound in gold.
At the same time, it indirectly pushes BTC and ETH higher.
But it’s only a rebound; after the bounce, continuing to short remains the main idea and the trend.

What I shared last night:
$MU Opened a short position near the US stock Micron 1150 average price; currently down about 5%.
$XAU Opened a long position near the gold 4000 average price; currently slightly in profit (Asia session down, Europe session up—turns out it really is mature assets).
$BTC The opened long positions in BTC and ETH are still in place, oscillating back and forth (not decisive also reflects the market’s hesitation).

For now, continue to take an early setup for tomorrow’s NFP scenario: hold low-level BTC and ETH long positions (with ETH stronger than BTC). The long targets and short entry zones are around 61,800–62,300.
Gold long targets are around 4,140 and 4,180, and the reference short zone is around 4,170–4,200.

Leave the rest to time!

My little lighthouse defines me as a contrarian trader, haha.
It’s because I challenged what she believed—that the current market analysts are all unanimously bullish on MU.
And I want to do $MU : a short-term play on the Nasdaq for a potential correction triggered by the listing of Hynix, following the impact of the event.
Trend positions are for the long term.
Speculative positions are flexible.
I’m just more inclined to lay in positions based on expectations of the market’s direction—meaning “left-side trading.”
The difference between left-side trading and right-side trading.
If you’re interested, you can go find out more details.

Before and after SK hynix’s listing on Nasdaq, it will provide Micron $MU with a good opportunity to board
After all, when SK hynix listed on Nasdaq, it undermined Micron’s uniqueness in the US-listed AI memory market
So, some of the premium in Micron’s earlier pricing may be diluted and adjusted
Meanwhile, in the nonfarm payrolls expectations for Thursday, the market isn’t optimistic about two consecutive bursts
If nonfarm comes in below expectations, with the dollar pulling back and US stocks adjusting, the logic line is still there
At this point, you need to get on board by building positions in leading, strong stocks
$MU $GLW

I went long $XAU $BTC $ETH
I went short #MU
There are still chances to go long #GLW (Kangning)
All of them are at roughly the same prices shown in the picture

June 30 Gold Recap: $XAU $XAUT
In the early session, the U.S. dollar was again suppressed, breaking to a fresh near-term low, but it quickly retreated and rebounded above 4000. On the last day of June, the market showed resistance at the 4000 level, effectively breaking through. The dollar’s suppression is the most direct factor affecting gold.

So, the next two things may provide a positive catalyst for a gold rebound:

1. Yesterday’s news about the USD/JPY exchange rate breaking above the 40-year high. If Japan’s intervention affects the dollar’s downside, it would promote a gold rebound. Today, BOJ policy board member Sato Ringen reminded the market of this risk. Although there was no direct intervention, Japan still issued the warning.

2. The second factor is the Non-Farm Payrolls data on Thursday (with Friday’s Independence Day impact bringing it forward). The market is already strongly pricing in rate hikes. At present, the highest odds are for a rate hike in September. If this week’s NFP data is not particularly strong, it would reduce expectations for a September hike, and gold would catch its breath, which is favorable for promoting the rebound.

On the technical side, today’s Asia-session breakdown has only temporarily taken liquidity to the downside for the low. As long as the price holds the 4000 level over the next two days, and the rebound breaks above 4100 and holds steady, that would stop the decline in gold. However, the line between a stabilization rebound and genuine strength is still around 4220.

Finally, according to the latest expectations from some institutions, the expected pullback low for gold is around 3800, while the expected upside high is around 4900–5100.

To summarize, based on the above, it is more reasonable to position for recent gold with a low-buy strategy.
[The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice]

Crypto Recap for June 30: BTC tight-ranges near the lows and breakdowns aided by low-long positions and other capital

Fundamentals:
Since June, market focus has still been on ongoing ETF outflows, cooling institutional sentiment, pressure on the Strategy/MSTR narrative, and risks to risk assets from geopolitical factors and interest-rate expectations.
After spot BTC ETFs experienced 13 trading days of cumulative outflows totaling about $4.4 billion, only then did a very small net inflow appear; the spot ETH ETF also ended 17 days of outflows, but the repair strength hasn’t been strong.
On the other hand, traditional finance continues to move closer to stablecoin infrastructure—for example, BNY Mellon is preparing to support Circle’s USDC custody, transfers, minting, and redemption/burn—which is positive for stablecoin institutionalization.
As for Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls data, as long as it’s not clearly stronger than expectations, it will still be a favorable opportunity for a rebound.

Medium- to long-term view of the market:
After BTC dropped to 58K and then recovered it back, the past few days’ price action has been stuck in low-range consolidation around 59K–60K. There has been no effective continuation selloff, nor has there been a decisive rebound breakthrough of key resistance. This “low-level liquidation tug-of-war” phase is also an accumulation/positioning phase.
However, in the short term, the market hasn’t shown extreme panic. The negative impact from fundamentals has temporarily shrunk. This Thursday’s July nonfarm day will continue to drive the rate-setting/interest-rate discussion, but at most it will be repeating rate-hike expectations that the market has already adjusted to. If the nonfarm data instead helps delay further hikes, the probability of a strong upside rebound following the momentum would be higher.
Putting it all together: after a modest downward sweep, going long on dips “in trend” appears to have more opportunity than shorting from the low.

Today’s market breakdown:
Next, watch for two ranges for dip-buying long setups: 58,800–59,100 and the needle-in-the-pocket opportunities in 58,000–58,300. Only after a convincing hold above 60.6K will there be a higher probability of follow-through for the rebound; the key pivot level for a potential reversal is 62.5K.
ETH is slightly stronger than BTC. Favor a rebound first over BTC, and watch for a dip sweep and rebound in 1,550–1,560. After holding above 1,610, look for breakout continuation.
$BTC
The above are only my personal views and do not constitute any investment advice.
$BTC

The yen has crashed to a 40-year low. The real thing to be nervous about is the people holding BTC.
I just saw the yen fall to a new 40-year low—this is a signal!
The USD/JPY exchange rate has broken above the previous high and is hovering around 161.95, exceeding the highest level since December 1986. In reality, the exchange-rate number itself isn’t the key point. The real point is this: the yen is the world’s cheapest funding currency. For decades, traders have borrowed yen to buy anything that can rise—U.S. stocks, gold, and BTC. This arbitrage structure has grown so large that no one can precisely quantify its scale.
Now the Bank of Japan is tightening while the yen is depreciating, which shows the market doesn’t believe the BOJ can keep pace with the Federal Reserve. But the BOJ won’t be able to tolerate it forever. Once it intervenes verbally or raises rates more than expected in July, all positions that were set up by borrowing yen must be unwound in the opposite direction—sell assets and repay the yen.
August 2024 already demonstrated this once. An unexpected BOJ rate hike sent BTC crashing from 60K to 49K; in 24 hours, liquidations totaled $1.1 billion, and the crypto market evaporated by $600 billion.
That was only a relatively small adjustment. Today’s environment is even more fragile: the BTC ETF has seen net outflows for 6 straight weeks totaling $4 billion, and liquidity was already drying up.
If the BOJ acts at this moment, it would be ETF “liquidity extraction” stacked with a carry trade unwind—two floodgates opened at the same time.
In this scenario, gold’s role is comparatively better. In past experiences, in the first few hours after yen intervention, gold was dumped indiscriminately along with all other assets—but after that initial wave, gold’s safe-haven characteristics kick in, pulling the price back. This “first down, then up” rhythm has been repeatedly validated in every bout of major yen volatility over the past two years.
So now you should watch the BOJ’s moves. As long as it doesn’t say anything, the carry trade gets to live one more day. The moment it speaks: the yen jumps higher → risk assets are dumped in a concentrated selloff → BTC underperforms → BTC drags down the entire crypto market’s risk appetite → gold is briefly bled but then rebounds.
This is a potential macro factor that can be monitored with AI
$BTC

Monday Asian session
Bitcoin $BTC —on the small timeframe like this, we just keep oscillating back and forth within an 800–1000 point range

The weekend rebound was great, but there wasn’t any one push to break up to 62,500. Really, there are no buyers left

But even so, the crypto market is still a market with a lot of opportunity
Here, you can still find room to play to your strengths
But if you go to the stock market or the US stock market, you only have the chance to follow the trend
You can only catch the tail end of the move—you definitely can’t run faster than the “big leg”

Reuters reported that on June 27 the United States launched a new round of strikes against Iran, citing an attack on a tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran and the U.S. trade blame for disrupting a ceasefire;
Other reports indicate that after the tanker was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, the situation escalated to the highest level since a temporary peace agreement.
USO is currently at around $105.48, down 3.5% on the day, but this reflects the market’s fluctuations before and after the geopolitical escalation; going forward, risk premia will need to be reassessed.
Oil prices fell earlier because the market was trading on “supplies returning.”
Now, if there is again an attack on tankers and fighting between the U.S. and Iran, it suggests that the Hormuz risk has not been resolved. Crude oil can easily jump sharply from low levels.

If the conflict does not further expand, any pullback in oil prices would still be beneficial for easing inflation and helping risk assets recover.

Once passage through the Strait of Hormuz slows significantly again and insurance rates spike, oil prices will quickly re-price in a war premium.

Keep an eye on WTI 69—70, Brent 72—75;
the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz;
whether the U.S. and Iran continue to attack each other.
$CL

US stocks:
Recently, the three major US stock indexes fell across the board. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite each declined by 0.36%, 0.66%, and 1.1%, respectively.
AI-related stocks performed poorly. onsemi plunged 18.82%, while Micron, Astera Labs, and others also saw significant declines.
Among large-cap tech stocks, although Microsoft rose 1.14%, other companies such as Tesla and Google fell by 1.11% and 1.41%, respectively.
Market panic sentiment increased, and the VIX volatility index rose 8.91%.

QQQ is currently around $706.52, down about 1.35% intraday. NVDA is currently around $192.53, down about 1.96% intraday. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Japan’s AI-related memory stock Kioxia plunged 12%, putting overall pressure on AI-related stocks.

The AI main theme hasn’t ended, but capital is no longer blindly buying “all AI.” Chips, memory, and the computing-power supply chain that have surged earlier are now being tested by valuation pressure and profit-taking.

Going forward, it may be more suitable to follow AI spillover themes: robotics, AI hardware, data-center power, liquid cooling, network equipment, edge AI, and industrial automation.

If NVDA still can’t reclaim $200 for a long time, the AI back row may be more prone to follow through with further declines.

NVDA: 190—200; QQQ: 700—710; whether the semiconductor index continues to sell off with increased trading volume. #Chip stocks plunge together# #US chip stocks fall across the board# #US leading tech stocks fall across the board#
#Memory stocks pull back collectively; AI costs shift toward the consumer end
$QQQ $NVDA

#USDT市值达1860亿美元超越以太坊
According to DefiLlama data, the total market value of stablecoins is approximately $314.469 billion, down by about $730 million over the past 7 days, and down 2.32% over the past 30 days. USDT accounts for roughly 59.17%.

Stablecoins are the “ammunition reserves” of the crypto market. While prices rebound, stablecoins do not expand, indicating it is more about existing supply battling it out rather than large amounts of new capital entering the market at scale.

Only if the total stablecoin supply turns positive again, and BTC no longer breaks to new lows, could the “pullback rebound” upgrade into a “stage-by-stage long” opportunity.

As stablecoins continue to shrink, altcoins suffer the most;
Major coins can still get support from ETFs and institutions, while altcoins can only rely on sentiment.

Will the total market value of stablecoins start growing again? Have on-chain stablecoin inflows resumed on chains such as Solana, Base, and Hyperliquid?

Seeing some veteran bloggers repeatedly reminding that 60,000 here has been bouncing back and forth
It seems like an attempt to form a bottom or approach a bottom
Although my experience tells me that this is indeed a good bottom
But that is only subjective
Now, setting subjectivity aside, in the external conditions
I still haven't found any basis to go bargain-hunting
It's only that the price is cheap
So, tell me quickly a reason to bargain-hunt and go long (excluding the short term)
$BTC

Spot ETF fund flows continue to deteriorate.
On June 24, BTC ETF recorded net outflows of about $469 million
On June 25, net outflows continued at about $426 million
There’s no clear institutional buying to step in; instead, there is persistent redemption pressure.

On June 24, ETH ETF recorded net outflows of about $30.3 million
On June 25, net outflows continued at about $16.5 million.

The broader macro market is still clearly bearish. Although last night’s PCE data did not strengthen expectations for further rate hikes, the pressure for rate hikes in September and the shift of liquidity outflows have kept the crypto space in a bearish environment.

For prices to rise, you either need a supportive macro signal, or all bearish factors have to have already fully played out.
Otherwise, even if trading is halted for a down limit, it will still be prolonged bottom-side consolidation.
$BTC

#Deribit data shows that more than $10.6 billion worth of BTC options will expire on June 26, with about 80%, or roughly $8.6 billion, currently out of the money, and only about 20% in the money.
@DeribitOfficial Quarterly options on Deribit typically expire on the last Friday of the quarter at 08:00 UTC, which is around 16:00 Beijing time today. Deribit options are European-style and cash-settled; profit and loss are automatically settled upon expiration, with no actual BTC delivery.
Based on the current situation, before 4:00 PM, watch whether the BTC price can stay above $60,000. If it can, a short-squeeze scenario may emerge, drawing price toward the 61,200–62,000 targets.
On the other hand, if it cannot hold above $60,000 and $60,000 becomes a pressure point, then a large number of long call options will expire worthless. In that case, the options positioning, technical structure, and funding conditions will all turn bearish, and the price may continue to face pressure and sweep lower.

Believe in long-term assets, and ignore the pessimistic mood of the short term
Make a plan and leave it to time
Assets are long-term accumulation
The short term is speculation—enter today and exit tomorrow
Summary: If you believe in long-term assets, let time do the rest!
Good night!
#黄金 $XAU

Tonight I did a round of screening and categorization on several popular US stock sectors.
I also briefly noted the core logic for each category, the main business of each individual stock, and the market focus on each.
It’s essentially the formal start of my US equity research journey.
As for the current US market, my view is:
The mainline sectors are still the compass, but many of the core names have already run up to high levels. If you chase them aggressively now, the risk-reward ratio is actually fairly average.
They’re steady—that also means the trend is intact—but they may not be the most comfortable entry points at the moment.
At this stage, the more worth-watching opportunities are in the expansion of the mainline themes and the spillover across the industry chain.
For example, within major directions like AI, robotics, computing power, data centers, semiconductors, and crypto finance—after the core leaders have already risen, capital often continues to look for second-tier high-beta names in the industry chain, lower-position “catch-up” stocks, and companies whose logic hasn’t been fully priced in yet.
That’s the kind of stock that may still have room and potential.
#美股 #BStocks
#美光市值超meta达1.398万亿美元