10年老韭加密研究中心

#IMF称代币化市场仍小且碎片化
The IMF just poured cold water on it, but $ONDO is speeding up. The IMF just said the tokenized market is only about $65 billion and highly fragmented.
But just two days ago, Ondo took another step forward.
This time, it wasn’t U.S. Treasuries, but private companies.
Ondo launched Private Markets, turning economic exposure to eligible private companies into on-chain notes, and plans to let them trade on secondary markets 24/7.
Even more interestingly, Ondo now also allows eligible institutions to directly convert the stocks they hold into corresponding tokenized stocks.
So the real competition in RWA may no longer be about whether there is demand.
It is about: who can bring more traditional assets on-chain and make liquidity happen.
The IMF sees that the market is still very small right now.
Ondo is betting that this market will only get bigger in the future.

#nearintents用户付费超2900万美元
$NEAR What’s really worth paying attention to isn’t the $29 million.
Today, many people are sharing the news that “NEAR Intents users have paid over $29 million in fees.”
But I’m more interested in the second half:
About $5.3 million of that has already been used to buy back NEAR on the open market. And the pace of buybacks is clearly accelerating.
Buybacks totaled about $723,000 in August, then jumped to $1.84 million in September—roughly 2.5 times higher in a single month.
The logic is simple: Intents transaction volume rises → fees are generated → NEAR captures a portion of the revenue → that revenue is used to buy back NEAR.
Intents’ 30-day transaction volume is now close to $5 billion, with cumulative volume exceeding $32 billion.
So what NEAR really needs to prove now isn’t whether it can tell an “AI story.”
It’s this:
Can Intents consistently generate real transactions, and can the revenue from those transactions continue to flow back to NEAR itself?

#imf称代币化市场仍小且碎片化
IMF: RWA hasn’t really taken off yet. The IMF poured some cold water on tokenized markets today.
As of the end of July, the global market for tokenized real-world assets was worth only about $65 billion. Fixed-income assets accounted for $48 billion of that, while tokenized stocks amounted to just $2.3 billion.
The bigger problem isn’t the small size—it’s the fragmentation.
Different platforms can’t interact with one another, liquidity is split into isolated pools, and issuance is highly concentrated.
But interestingly, the IMF didn’t dismiss the idea. The report found that more than half of all tokenized stock trades took place after traditional stock markets closed, and about 80% of trades were for less than one full share.
This shows that while the market is small today, demand for “24-hour trading + fractional ownership” is real.
So, for now, RWA is best described as a market where demand has emerged, but the infrastructure hasn’t caught up yet.
$LINK $BTC $ETH

#全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位
Another warning sign has emerged in global bond markets.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose to 5.364%, while the 30-year yield reached 5.696%—both near their highest levels in about 24 years.
The U.K. 30-year gilt yield also topped 6%, reaching its highest level since 1998.
There are two main concerns behind this: inflationary pressure from rising oil prices and governments’ ongoing need to borrow more.
Why does this matter?
Because the higher Treasury yields go, the greater the opportunity cost of holding risky assets. Bitcoin is not bound to fall because of this, but if high yields persist, altcoins without sustained inflows may be hit harder.
Going forward, I’ll be watching two things closely:
Whether Treasury yields can retreat from their highs;
Whether $BTC can hold key levels amid macroeconomic pressure.
If yields keep climbing and BTC fails to hold support, the risks for altcoins could grow further.
This time, the question isn’t who’s calling a bull market, but whether investors are still willing to take on risk.

$MET surged nearly 70% today, making this rally worth watching.
Meteora recently announced DLMM Pro, after which MET broke out of its previous consolidation range of around $0.31–$0.34.
Another noteworthy development is that reports indicate Meteora's DEX trading volume and active addresses are also rising.
This means the market is paying attention not only to the token price, but also to liquidity trading activity in the Solana ecosystem. But there's one issue: MET has already climbed to around $0.52, and is clearly overheated in the short term.
Two things to watch next:
Can it hold key support after a pullback?
Can trading activity remain strong, rather than just being a one-day flurry?

$INJ is worth taking another look at recently.
Injective’s Meridian upgrade further enhances the access controls needed for RWA tokenization, including whitelists and transfer compliance rules.
This kind of infrastructure is aimed at bringing institutional assets on-chain, not just facilitating ordinary token trading.
But there’s a catch: fundamentals are advancing, while the token price has just undergone a notable pullback.
So I wouldn’t buy the dip outright; I’m more focused on whether the price can stabilize first.
Entry: $7.20–$7.40 (after a confirmed bottom)
Take profit: $7.65 / $7.90 / $8.15 / $8.45 / $8.80
Stop-loss: $6.95

$SKY has pulled back recently, but I'm more focused on the buyback mechanism behind it.
Sky Protocol uses a portion of its protocol surplus to buy back SKY.
According to public buyback data, approximately $5.02 million worth was bought back over the past 30 days, an increase of about 114% from the previous 30 days.
But don't rush to buy the dip.
SKY just hit an all-time high on October 5, then pulled back about 21% from that peak. Short-term volatility is high.
Entry: $0.0815–$0.0825 (after it regains and holds this level)
Take profit: $0.0845 / $0.0870 / $0.0904 / $0.0949 / $0.1000
Stop loss: $0.0770
What I want to see isn't the pullback itself, but whether the price can regain and hold key levels.

$EDU The volume indicator has always been quite accurate; it successfully broke through the first take-profit target

$HYPE Back at a key level.
Now around $87, after pulling back from a rally to near $95 a few days ago.
But there’s a solid fundamental support: Hyperliquid Strategies recently bought another ~1.9 million HYPE, worth about $167 million. So I’m not chasing above $95; I’m more focused on this pullback.
Entry: $84.5–87.0
Take profit: $89 / $91 / $93 / $95 / $98
Stop-loss: $81.5
If it holds around $85, a bounce from here is worth watching.
If it breaks below $81.5, I’m out—not fighting the market.

Cardano’s latest move isn’t just an ordinary token standard. $ADA
CIP-0113 is now live on mainnet, allowing issuers to add rules to tokens, such as KYC requirements, restrictions on sanctioned addresses, and freezing. In other words, a tokenized fund, bond, or even stablecoin could have compliance requirements written directly into the asset itself.
More interestingly, there’s already a real-world use case:
Veridian, a subsidiary of the Cardano Foundation, has tokenized its shares on Cardano using CIP-0113.
This is a crucial step for RWAs. Until now, the idea was to “move” real-world assets onto the blockchain.
Now, it’s becoming about bringing the regulatory rules of the real world onto the blockchain, too.
If banks, funds, and securities issuers move on-chain at scale in the future, this kind of infrastructure could matter more than simply speculating on an RWA-themed coin.

#黄金ETF创纪录吸金高利率仍压制金价
An interesting phenomenon is unfolding in the gold market. The latest data from the World Gold Council show that global gold ETFs saw net inflows of about $10 billion in September, bringing third-quarter net inflows to a record $31 billion.
Global ETF gold holdings also rose to 4,256 tonnes. Yet gold fell 8.5% in September.
If institutions are buying, why is the gold price still falling?
First, inflows don’t mean there’s no selling pressure.
Continued ETF buying only shows that these investors are still increasing their gold allocations. Long positions being closed in the futures market and other investors taking profits could both offset new buying.
Second, high interest rates are increasing the cost of holding gold.
Gold itself pays no interest. When U.S. Treasury yields rise, some investors shift to assets that offer interest income, putting a damper on gold’s appeal.
Third, different investors are focused on different time horizons.
ETF investors may be preparing for long-term risks, while futures traders pay closer attention to short-term interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and price movements.
My take:
The key for gold right now isn’t whether investors are bullish, but whether new buying can offset the pressure from interest rates and the dollar.
If ETF inflows continue while gold prices keep weakening, it means selling pressure in the market remains strong.
Conversely, if yields start to fall while ETF inflows continue, gold may have more favorable conditions for a rebound.
Buying is no guarantee that prices will rise right away. What really matters is whether buying can outweigh selling.
$GOLD.US $BTC $ETH

#vitalik警告ai或将加速削弱密码学安全
People used to worry that quantum computers would crack cryptocurrency encryption.
Now, Vitalik Buterin has raised another risk worth watching: AI could accelerate mathematical research, potentially putting some cryptographic algorithms under pressure sooner than expected.
On October 7, Vitalik warned that lattice cryptography could face a serious threat to its practical security within the next two years.
What does this mean?
First, the threat posed by AI may go beyond programs that steal cryptocurrency.
AI can help find smart contract vulnerabilities, but it could also accelerate mathematical research. If researchers consequently discover more efficient algorithms, the security assumptions behind some existing cryptographic systems may need to be reassessed.
Second, $BTC and $ETH should not ignore this issue entirely either.
The widely used ECDSA digital signature algorithm is also drawing attention. However, there is currently no evidence that AI can directly crack the private keys of Bitcoin or Ethereum users.
Third, the real test is whether the industry can upgrade in time.
Vitalik recommends prioritizing hash-based cryptographic schemes where feasible, while reminding users not to rush into moving their assets out of fear.
My take:
This should not be interpreted as meaning that BTC or ETH is about to become insecure in the short term.
But it is a reminder to the entire industry that cryptographic security is never guaranteed forever.
If AI significantly accelerates the pace of mathematical research, the security designs of wallets, transaction signatures, and privacy protocols may all need to be reassessed in the future. What is really worth watching next is whether public blockchains such as Ethereum will speed up their cryptographic upgrades, and whether any practical breakthroughs in algorithms emerge.

#xrp现货etf持仓17亿美元周流入放缓
$XRP Spot ETF holdings reach $1.7 billion, but weekly inflows have slowed sharply
XRP spot ETFs now hold approximately $1.7 billion in assets, but inflows are cooling.
The latest data shows that the 5 tracked XRP spot ETFs hold around 1.13 billion XRP. Net inflows totaled only about $3.9 million over the past week, compared with approximately $112 million over the past month.
So here's the question: If institutional holdings keep growing, why is XRP still falling?
First, the size of holdings doesn't equal new buying.
The $1.7 billion figure reflects the value of existing holdings. It doesn't mean institutions have recently bought another $1.7 billion worth. To gauge new demand, you have to look at daily and weekly net inflows.
Second, inflows are slowing.
Net inflows were still around $112 million over the past month, but just about $3.9 million over the most recent week. Money is still flowing in, but buying pressure has weakened considerably.
Third, ETF buying doesn't mean there's no selling pressure in the market.
Continued ETF buying may be offset by selling from other investors. Trading activity in derivatives markets can also affect short-term prices.
My take:
When looking at XRP now, don't focus only on ETF holdings hitting new highs. Pay closer attention to whether new inflows can pick up again.
If inflows continue to slow and XRP remains unable to rebound, the institutional-holdings narrative alone is unlikely to sustain a prolonged rally.
What's really worth watching isn't how much institutions have already bought, but how much more they're willing to buy.

#frenchhill敦促跛脚鸭会期通过clarity法案
French Hill urges passage of the CLARITY Act during the lame-duck session
Another noteworthy signal has emerged in U.S. crypto regulation.
On October 7, French Hill, chair of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, renewed his call to advance the CLARITY Act, hoping to make progress during the lame-duck session after the November midterm elections.
Why does this matter?
First, the core issues surrounding U.S. crypto regulation remain unresolved.
The CLARITY Act seeks to further clarify how regulatory oversight of digital asset markets is divided between the SEC and the CFTC, providing trading platforms and crypto projects with a clearer legal framework.
Second, the Senate had already stalled the legislative process.
On September 15, a related procedural motion failed to pass, with 49 votes in favor and 50 opposed—still short of the 60-vote threshold.
Hill speaking out again shows that supporters have not given up on the chance to advance the legislation before the end of the year.
Third, calls to action do not mean the bill is about to pass.
The two parties still disagree on issues such as conflicts of interest and consumer protection. The lame-duck session is short, so whether they can reach a compromise is what matters.
My take:
If the bill makes substantive progress, its greatest significance won’t be that a particular token immediately rises in price, but that the rules governing the U.S. crypto market may become clearer going forward.
What’s really worth watching next is whether the Senate reschedules the legislative process and whether the two parties can reach agreement on contentious provisions.
It’s too early to hype the bill as “about to pass,” but legislative progress before the end of the year is certainly worth following.
$BTC $ETH $BNB

#ETF仍在流入BTC为何下跌
In September, U.S. spot $BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $2.65 billion. But in October, Bitcoin once again fell below $85,000.
What went wrong?
First, ETF purchases don’t mean the entire market is buying.
ETFs are only one part of the spot market. Even when institutions buy through ETFs, other investors may sell BTC, offsetting that demand.
Second, inflows have cooled.
At the end of September, BTC ETFs recorded net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, totaling about $3.1 billion. But that streak ended on October 1, when they saw net outflows of about $149 million.
The buying pressure we saw earlier wasn’t sustained.
Third, the macroeconomic environment is putting pressure on the market.
On October 7, a stronger U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields, and higher oil prices weighed on risk assets broadly. Bitcoin was no exception.
My view:
We shouldn’t focus only on cumulative ETF inflows right now. We should pay closer attention to whether daily net inflows can pick up again, and whether BTC can reclaim key price levels.
If inflows continue but the price still can’t break through resistance, that could indicate stronger selling pressure in the market.
$ETH

【Veteran Retail Investor Watch】
$GRT Review of the recent rally
The Graph has officially begun migrating Subgraph Studio traffic from BNB Chain and Polygon to The Graph Network. Previously, a considerable portion of this traffic ran in Studio’s centralized environment. Now, Indexers on the network are starting to handle it.
The key flow is:
Query traffic → Indexers → Query fees → The Graph Network.
More networks will be migrated over time. So this isn’t just another “AI narrative.”
It means real query traffic that wasn’t fully on the network before is now being directed to the protocol itself.$ETH

#evernorth推迟纳斯达克上市至10月12日
【Veteran Crypto Watch】
Evernorth’s Nasdaq listing has suddenly been pushed back by four days. Trading was originally scheduled to begin on October 8.
It has now been moved to October 12, under the ticker $XRPN.
The company cited delays in administrative procedures and currently expects them not to affect the completion of the transaction.
What’s really worth watching is what the company will hold after listing:
Approximately 473 million $XRP .
At the current XRP price, that amount is worth around $670 million.
And Evernorth isn’t simply holding XRP without putting it to work.
The company plans to use XRP yield strategies, DeFi, and ecosystem investments to increase the amount of XRP represented by each share.
So the truly interesting question on October 12 is: what valuation will the market assign to this “XRP treasury company”? It could become a new window for the market to price capital flowing into XRP.
$ETH $BNB

$FLUID Successfully broke through the third take-profit target
$BNB $ETH