Crypto_猫哥

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#BTC
#ETH
#SOL

In my opinion, the crypto market absolutely needs a major reshuffle. Old coins in the space all need a last-digit elimination mechanism. Open the exchange’s market cap rankings on CoinBase, and in the top 20 you’ll find a lot of old-chain coins. I bet many new people haven’t even heard of them. Their market caps are often in the tens of billions.

For example, take $CHZ.

These kinds of ancient coins have unlimited total supply. They steadily release about 3.4WU worth of tokens every day. The project team doesn’t need to do anything—once the daily unlock happens, they just sell everything.

As long as the crypto market doesn’t implode, this group of old coins can keep selling until the end of time.

$BTC daily chart has returned to 63,000. Here’s some data—this could be noise, or it could be the start of a new uptrend.

In the past few quarters, BTC has shown a clear risk-on correlation with AI semiconductor assets ($SMH), and BTC’s upside elasticity has continued to lag behind AI assets.

In many cases, it has even looked like a “falls when it should, but doesn’t rise when it should” pattern.

But starting in July, we’ve seen a divergence: the secondary heat in the AI sector has cooled off, while BTC hasn’t followed through on the downside.

This may indicate that capital is rotating—investors are starting to look for the next “less-crowded asset.”

However, for now, this rebound can only be interpreted as “selling has eased + short-covering,” not as new capital pouring in at scale.

But if in the short term BTC continues to outperform SMH while net inflows to ETFs keep rising, then we can start treating this as a right-side trend.

#BTC
#韩国KOSPI跌4.91%触发熔断

After a long drought, comes sweet rain. Although MicroStrategy has implemented a small strategy with large-scale coin selling, the Bitcoin ETF has finally seen two consecutive days of net inflows. This offsets the downside. If the following conditions are all met next, and no more black swans occur, then there is a chance for a transition from bear to bull!
1. MicroStrategy has enough reserves to pay interest for more than 12 months, and STRC returns to $100.
2. Gradual “bleeding stops” for the Bitcoin ETF, reaching a balance between inflows and outflows, and then starting net inflows.
3. The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, and even begins to cut rates.
4. The CLARITY Act is passed smoothly.
I am willing to use a dog-broker’s 10-year lifespan to bless the above being completed successfully 🙏

#ETF
#BTC

It seems Korean stocks have hit a trading halt

I’ve lost a lot of money—damn it

I’m not interested in taking over the bag anymore

I cut my losses and exited

#OPG

#OPG

0.148 more for one hand OPG

MC only 30m

At 3:30pm, open the KRW pair

Currently the fee is -0.7

Bottom 0.12, the KRW pair going up will cost a lot of money

The big player has no reason not to earn it back

Tonight at 10:00 PM this ISM services sector PMI is likely to directly set the direction right after the U.S. stock market opens.

Just watch three numbers:

Above 54.5, the market will most likely straight up turn into a parabola.

54.0 to 54.4, it’ll basically move sideways—there’s not much action.

Below 53.9, don’t be stubborn; it could just get dumped.

The most annoying thing about this kind of data is that before it comes out, everyone pretends to be calm. After it comes out, everyone starts looking for reasons.

Tonight, watch the show.
#PMI
#BTC
#ETH

MicroStrategy sold coins again again again. It sold 3,588 Bitcoins, totaling $225 million.

It sounds like a lot, but at this scale, it’s actually less than five-thousandths of MicroStrategy’s holdings.

In the long run, this is good for the industry. After MicroStrategy sells off its remaining “pie,” this is normal. The market will gradually become less sensitive to MicroStrategy as well. This risk can be digested in a more orderly way, which will have a positive effect on driving the next crypto bull market.

#BTC
#微策略
#STRC

Outlook for the Second Half of 2026 (Concise Version)
1️⃣ U.S. Stocks: A differentiated pullback is likely; AI and semiconductor sectors may lead the decline
• NASDAQ is expected to pull back by 8–16%
• SOX is expected to pull back by 15–30%
Other sectors with low valuations and those that have already adjusted early will face less pressure
Semiconductors had already priced in a pullback at the start of the year, and it has largely played out recently. The next phase will be the “get in” window. However, note that the semiconductor rally is already in the late stage of a bull market, and the risks are clearly rising.
2️⃣ Bitcoin: Second-half performance will be significantly stronger than the first half
• Most optimistic: No need to wait for a U.S. stock pullback—go straight into an independent major upswing
• Neutral: When U.S. stocks pull back, BTC holds up; then the markets move together upward
• Most pessimistic (lowest probability): It follows a major drawdown, and only then goes into a bull run
Both short-term and long-term are extremely optimistic; BTC’s independence has strengthened markedly.
3️⃣ Overall risk in U.S. stocks
• The risk of a “major top” has risen compared with early this year, but more indicators are still needed to confirm. For now, treat it as a pullback.
• There are signs of distribution in the structure (the level is still relatively low). Valuations are in the mid-to-high range of a bull market; the expansion phase has ended, and the market is entering a earnings verification stage (a typical feature of the middle-to-late bull market).
• The main AI bull-market theme is still intact. Even if the second half looks like a pre-bear distribution phase, this process could still be long.
Key opportunity: If the NASDAQ pulls back by 15% or more, it will be an excellent re-entry level.
Summary:
BTC: Extremely optimistic short-term, extremely optimistic long-term
U.S. stocks: Neutral to cautious short-term; optimistic long-term
Pullbacks are a gift, and BTC is the main theme. Keep your timing right and control your position size.

#BTC
#美股

#TST

The greatest meme on BSC from days gone by is also about to be taken down

TST is the first meme with Ca that CZ replied to

It’s also one of only two memes that can be traded via C2C

Back then, we watched it surge from 2m to 500m

Then it fell from 500m to 10m

Some friends who believed in BSC thought CZ would personally step in to do TST and push it to 2B—turns out, once it got listed on Binance, that was the end; they kicked him out of the scene

#TST、#Mubarak、#GIGGLE

The results will be the same for everyone

Memes are like toilet paper—only when BSC needs to steal SOL’s limelight will they fire off a shot, then discard it after use

#CZ
#TCC
It will be the same
#TST
#giggle
#broccoli
#mubarak

This morning’s market action pushed higher again, with the peak touching 63990 and edging close to the 64000 integer level. This once again confirms my earlier view: shorting around 63000 is basically a counter-trend move—more like trading mid-slope. If you want to short, you must wait until the price is in the high-range area before considering it.

At the moment, $BTC has firmly held above and broken through the 12-hour EMA52 resistance level, and is now gradually approaching the daily EMA52 (around 65868). At the daily level, the resistance strength is relatively high, and it’s likely that a round of consolidation and pressure will occur here.

For execution, here’s a reference:
If you still hold long positions that were entered at lower levels, and the profits are substantial but you’re sensitive to short-term fluctuations, you could consider taking profit on half at the current level to lock in gains; the other half can be held on, targeting the 66000–69000 range.

Going forward, for a smooth break above the daily resistance, the prerequisite is that 62800 must not be effectively broken down. As long as this key level is defended, the probability of pushing up toward 69000 remains high.

#BTC

Congratulations to these brothers

Follow this, and leave your Binance UID

In 24 hours, you will receive USDC

#LAB
#BTC
#ETH

UNI has broken through the major downtrend suppression that has held for 24 years. Two weeks ago, the Standard Chartered research report came out and marked the first breakout. Then it successfully retraced and was smoothly supported. Today, it is rising again from the retracement level.

The recent resistance level is the 200-day MA. It is currently at 3.84. If it strongly breaks above in the next few days, UNI’s bear market will be over.

#uni

Every day, draw one person

Friends who came from Twitter already know

Mao Ge’s giveaways are never fake

Brothers, move it

Assuming $BTC has already started rebounding, let’s see how far it can go and where the pressure points are.

1. The daily EMA21 is at 62300. It is currently temporarily meeting resistance;

2. The POC of the down move starting from 82 is around 63500 (Figure 1);

3. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the assumed last leg of the down move is 63666, which coincides with the POC (Figure 2);

4. The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the entire down move is 67369. This level is also where—structurally—the down move transitions from support to resistance (Figure 3).

Derivation:

1. First, structure is priority. Since the downtrend structure is already complete and a small-timeframe rebound has formed, the possibility of further deep selling under the current structure is almost nonexistent;

2. On the small timeframe, there are only two ways this can play out: ① a direct rebound, pushing upward to test various resistance levels, or ② a pullback, a false break below, and then another rebound;

3. The moving-average resistance is there to be broken. It can be skipped; there are many false moves made here each time, so there’s no need to worry about it;

4. On the small timeframe, once price breaks above 63666 and then pushes through 65260, the expansion of the rebound level can basically be confirmed;

5. So the key resistance levels are the prior support/resistance transition and the 0.382 retracement of the entire down move—around 67300.

From an execution perspective: keep existing long positions unchanged; if it drops, that’s an opportunity to add.
#btc

It bounced back, and then many people started asking:

Is it finally over?

Is a new bull market starting?

But compared to the candlestick chart, I care more about another set of data—the ETF fund flows.

Over the past ten days, U.S. spot BTC ETFs have continued to see net outflows. IBIT, FBTC, and GBTC have all been cutting positions.

The price is rising, but the money is leaving.

What does that mean? It suggests this rally looks more like an emotional repair and short-covering, not a trend reversal driven by incremental capital inflows.

In the market, there are different kinds of rallies—one is an actual rally, and another is when price can’t go any lower.

What truly determines a trend has never been a few green candles, but whether real money has returned.

Because price can be misleading, and news can be misleading.

Emotions can be misleading too, but money won’t.

I’ve always believed: price can temporarily move away from capital, but a trend can never move away from capital.

As long as ETF funds keep flowing out, most “heart-thumping” rebounds that excite people may ultimately be nothing more than passing scenery.

A real bull market is never something that’s “rallied into”—it begins on the day capital flows back in.

#BTC
#ETH

Survived that -20% big bearish candle in June; on July’s first day, it saw a strong open—up 4.7% so far.

I looked back at BTC’s historical monthly returns: July is famously a month that sees more gains than losses, with an average rise of 7.39% and a median increase of 8.16%.

I can’t go shouting that a bull market is back. August and September are also traditionally weak months. But after falling for so long already—how about a decent rebound, not asking for too much, right?

Five—the poor; six—despair; seven—turnaround; and in August and September, should it keep falling again!? 🤣

#BTC
#ETH
#SOL

U.S. June non-farm payrolls missed expectations, with wage trends remaining moderate

Non-farm payrolls: forecast 110,000, prior 129,000, actual 57,000.

In addition, the labor force participation rate was 61.5%, also below both last month and the expected 61.8%.

On wages: the month-over-month hourly wage was in line with expectations and last month (0.3%).

Overall, the data suggests that employment has temporarily cooled, wages are rising moderately, and there are currently no signs of a “wage-inflation” spiral.

CME’s interest rate futures show that market expectations for the September rate are unchanged, but there are still expectations for a hike in October

#非农就业数据

Nonfarm came in a surprise and fell short of expectations; the market now bets on a rate hike being delayed until the end of the year.

The market has already priced in the Federal Reserve’s December rate hike expectations.

Whenever everyone feels like the U.S. stock market is about to go under and they want to cut losses and liquidate, the market always catches you off guard with a surprise.

#BTC

How come there are still people trying to buy the dip $CRCL ?

Cheap stocks have only one advantage: they’re cheap, but they might get even cheaper.

Buying US stocks is essentially buying the future of sustainable growth and cash flow—not betting on short-term rebounds.

Circle’s main revenue still comes from interest rates plus the interest on USDC reserves, and that’s not unique either.

If it weren’t related to the crypto space, there wouldn’t be this much discussion.

Wipe away the bias toward $CRCL —he’s just a really sticky, needy kid from Langfang.

#crcl