阿简在路上

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阿简在路上

野生加密研究员｜用数据拆解市场叙事｜长期主义｜NFA｜📩 DM Open

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阿简在路上

Honestly, as a newcomer, I’m already really happy to have made the Top 100 shortlist this time. Seeing how many people are campaigning for votes, I never thought I’d get any further, so I only posted one vote appeal on X yesterday. I didn’t expect so many of you to support me—I’m just one step away from the top ten! I’ve got to campaign for myself a little more! Show me some love, guys—at least help knock those two foreign guys out 🥳#2026年全球区块链百强创作者

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阿简在路上

These shoes are so stylish and cool, but every time I wear knee-high socks, it makes me feel like I’m kinda gay-gay 🤧

阿简在路上

Bullish

Verified

$UNI futures have officially launched on CME, offering two contract sizes and 24/7 trading. But as you all know, the market had already priced in the good news: UNI surged nearly 20% on September 22, the day the futures listing was announced. Still, this is a significant milestone. It not only adds another token contract to a traditional exchange, but also allows institutions to express their views on the prices of DeFi assets through standardized derivatives. The relatively standardized rules, margin requirements, and clearing processes of futures may improve price discovery in some markets and carry over to UNI spot trading.

UNI-3.69%

阿简在路上

Bullish

Verified

As markets continue to assess changes to sanctions on Russian energy, risks to energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and the Federal Reserve’s future interest-rate path, gold briefly fell back to around $4,115 in early trading today. $XAU A friend asked me, “Jian, shouldn’t gold rise when geopolitical risks increase?” The logic is simple: although gold is influenced by safe-haven demand, it is also affected by the U.S. dollar, real interest rates, and the opportunity cost of holding gold. If rising risks push up energy prices and markets are also concerned about inflation and interest rates staying high, then even with safe-haven demand, gold may still be weighed down by interest-rate factors. The key is which transmission channel prevails.

XAU-1.25%

阿简在路上

Asian markets came under significant pressure in early trading today: the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan Index fell about 0.93%, the Nikkei dropped about 1.28%, and South Korea’s KOSPI fell about 3.61%. South Korea’s market is highly sensitive to semiconductors and the AI supply chain, so this kind of volatility can also reflect shifts in investor sentiment toward the tech sector. A Jian believes the risks lurking behind this are worth examining closely: the market is worrying about geopolitical risks while waiting for earnings reports from Meta, Tesla, and semiconductor-related companies.

It’s not a big deal if an index falls a few points. But if companies can’t deliver results showing that capital spending can generate revenue and cover financing costs, the volatility won’t remain limited to tech stocks; it could also spill over into high-risk markets such as crypto assets. Although the KOSPI’s decline alone can’t be used to predict that $BTC will necessarily fall, it does offer one way to gauge whether the market is repricing risks tied to a particular country or broadly reducing risk exposure.#韩国KOSPI指数跌超2%

Bullish

Markets broadly rebounded today, with $BTC climbing back above $82,500. Nasdaq futures rose, and Japanese and South Korean stocks also recovered. One factor behind the move was China’s third-quarter GDP growth of 4.5% year over year, up from 4.3% in the second quarter; retail sales also beat market expectations. Meanwhile, oil prices pulled back, easing some inflation concerns.

While it’s hard to say that domestic data directly drove Bitcoin higher, a stronger macro risk appetite could be affecting both stocks and crypto assets. Next, A Jian suggests watching whether BTC can hold the levels it reclaimed after the rebound, whether the recovery in U.S. futures and Asian stocks continues, and whether oil prices and interest rate expectations shift again #中国三季度经济增速加快至4.5%

BTC-1.24%

阿简在路上

Bearish

$Q rose over 100% in the past 24 hours, with a market cap of around $612.3M and trading volume of around $203.5M. Although the trading volume and market cap are not wildly out of balance, a gain that doubles in a single day still signals extremely high risk. The rally involved substantial short-term leverage and momentum-chasing. A-Jian suggests waiting for a pullback with buying support, then checking whether trading volume remains healthy to assess the quality of buying demand.

Q-2.60%

阿简在路上

Funding rates for BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE are all positive, suggesting that perpetual markets remain broadly skewed long. But given spot prices, this is more likely a sign that longs are getting crowded. A Jian reminds everyone to watch out for this kind of divergence: ultimately, prices are supported by spot buying, not sentiment in the derivatives market.

Bearish

Everything was within Ajian’s expectations. $TIA 24h fell by over 20%, making it one of today’s biggest market-cap decliners. $EIGEN also plunged. Neither token is an illiquid micro-cap asset; declines of this magnitude, along with the trading volume, are enough to show that genuine position adjustments are taking place in the market. Earlier buying failed to establish stable positions, and short-term capital still makes up a relatively high proportion. Also, including $STRK , which is continuing its downtrend, these assets can all be classified under the infrastructure narrative. It looks like they’ll remain deeply oversold tonight.

阿简在路上

Bearish

$TIA had impressive gains yesterday, but a one-day rise can only indicate a concentration of short-term capital; it doesn’t mean long-term supply and demand have changed. Ajian doesn’t think the modular blockchain sector as a whole has regained long-term capital. The same goes for $EIGEN : yesterday’s rally looks more like a spillover from meme coins to infrastructure assets, not enough to call it a sector comeback. If the market really is favoring infrastructure again, we should see more similar assets improving in sync—not just a handful of tokens rising. Ordinary traders don’t need to be among the last suckers chasing gains at this point.

Whoa, turns out I’ve visited so many places again this year! More than a researcher or trader, I’d rather call myself a backpacker. Which of you can name all these countries and come find A-Jian to claim a red packet? 😁

阿简在路上

One more thing: the fundamentals of $STRK , $PYTH , and $ZRO have all been pretty solid lately, and Ajian has analyzed them on their homepage. But their simultaneous decline today shows that liquidity in altcoins is still fragile. This isn't an issue with any one project: when money flows out of high-volatility assets, prices can quickly lose their support. This is precisely a sign that the market currently favors selective trading rather than a broad-based return to altcoins. Ordinary traders can use this moment to decide whether they should keep adding to their positions across the altcoin market.

Bearish

Verified

Well, Mysten Labs, the company behind Sui, just announced that Kevin Boon will take over as CEO, while former CEO Evan Cheng will become CTO and lead the newly formed AI business unit. Who’s CEO obviously doesn’t have much to do with us, but A-Jian thinks the move to make AI agent infrastructure an organization-level priority is definitely worth watching.

Once agents make it into production, they’ll need more than just a model that can answer questions. Things like identity verification, access control, execution logs, and dispute resolution all need to be considered. As for whether the final product can deliver and whether its value can flow through to $SUI , that depends on the products, customers, and on-chain demand that emerge next.

SUI-1.00%

阿简在路上

Brother Sun’s first in-person interview in three years. Personally, I found industry veteran Xiandao’s views sharper and more insightful than Alan Shao’s. You can search for “金明” on Douyin to watch the full interview. Many people may not know Xiandao: he holds multiple world records and placed first in Asia in the Coinbase trading competition a few days ago. He was also the only one of the ten contestants without a Twitter account—a low-profile heavyweight whose credentials speak for themselves.

阿简在路上

Today, MSCI—one of the rule setters and benchmark providers in global capital markets—officially adopted new index eligibility rules that could lead to digital asset treasury companies such as Strategy, Metaplanet, and Upexi being removed from some global investment indexes. This is quite serious, because it’s not about whether a particular company can continue buying $BTC , but whether it can remain in indexes tracked by large amounts of passive capital. This could directly affect demand for the company’s shares from passive funds, put pressure on its stock price, and shape its financing environment.

Of course, being at risk of removal doesn’t mean a company has already been removed, and the possibility of selling doesn’t mean the resulting selling pressure will necessarily cause a proportionate drop in the share price. But there’s no denying that as these companies’ core strategies increasingly revolve around holding a particular asset, traditional index providers face a question: should they treat these companies as operating businesses or as investment vehicles? This isn’t just a question for Strategy; it’s a capital-market valuation issue that the entire digital asset treasury model must confront.

BTC-1.24%

MSTRB-4.47%

阿简在路上

Bullish

Verified

Solana’s recent series of moves in Shanghai have definitely attracted attention beyond the usual circles, and even CZ was quick to send his best wishes. In A-Jian’s view, the value of this isn’t about how much short-term trading volume an offline event can generate, nor about how much $SOL might rise. Its significance lies in a public blockchain trying, in a market with many restrictions, to avoid directly promoting its token and instead shift the narrative from “buying coins” to developers, applications, and infrastructure—and, in the short term, achieving some results.

This won’t bring Solana a large number of new users right away, nor does it mean that policy risks have disappeared. But it does give us a tangible metric for assessing a project’s ability to go global: can it manage its product, developer, and capital narratives separately?

SOL-0.77%

阿简在路上

Bullish

Verified

Starknet officially launched a seven-day, non-binding community vote yesterday on whether to explore moving away from Ethereum. It asks holders of $STRK whether they support researching a transition to an independent, post-quantum-secure Layer 1. First, Ajian wants to remind everyone of two important caveats: this is only a vote to gather opinions, not a decision to leave Ethereum; and even if voters support further research, more proposals and governance processes would still be required. There is currently no official migration timeline.

Second, Starknet's motivation is straightforward: if quantum computing poses a real threat to current cryptography in the future, the network will need to consider not only its own signature and proof systems, but also whether underlying infrastructure it relies on, such as Ethereum, can upgrade in step. However, moving from an L2 to an independent L1 would inevitably change its security model, liquidity, developer relationships, and approach to ecosystem collaboration.

So Ajian thinks Starknet's move is really about weighing a long-term trade-off: rely on shared underlying security, or gain greater technological autonomy?

STRK-4.35%

阿简在路上

Bearish

Yesterday’s high-inflation environment led Binance to liquidate more than $106 million worth of $ETH long positions within one hour, marking the largest ETH long liquidation on an exchange in nearly six months. The question now is that although the price has returned to around $2,440, leveraged positions are clearly concentrated within a relatively narrow price range. Ajian believes this short-term rebound, which has outperformed BTC, is more likely due to a vacuum in positions after the liquidations. From this perspective, if ETH still cannot reclaim the $2,460–$2,470 range after a large number of longs have been wiped out, it would indicate that spot demand remains insufficient. Consider reducing leverage and increasing the buffer to liquidation prices.

ETH-1.50%

阿简在路上

Bullish

$BTC Last night's dip to test $80,000 probably made everyone's heart skip a beat. You could all see that it was driven by a combination of hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation, weakness in Asian markets, and declining risk appetite. But A Jian thinks the most important takeaway from this move is that the market rapidly reshuffled its positions: longs were forced to sell as prices fell, while shorts may have started covering as prices bounced. The price may look like it simply rebounded from around $80,000, but many of the people in the market have changed.

So, at current prices, this doesn't look like an inevitable rally after liquidations so much as a technical recovery following deleveraging. Spot demand hasn't fully returned. For a genuine trend reversal, we should see spot trading pick up, prices hold firmly above $82,600 again, and ETF flows stop deteriorating.

Also, although the liquidation amount was large this time, that doesn't mean selling pressure is completely over. Some longs were simply liquidated, while the remaining spot holders may still be waiting for a better price to exit. A Jian doesn't recommend using “it's already fallen” as a reason to add to your position.#美国9月PPI年率升至6.3%

BTC-1.24%

阿简在路上

Ajian doesn’t recommend simply interpreting today’s broad market sell-off as all projects deteriorating at once. Some assets are just being repriced due to interest rates, some are seeing their high valuations cut, and some are only affected by expensive funding, forcing longs to close their positions. These situations may look the same in terms of price action, but require completely different responses:

If you hold $BTC , $ETH , or $SOL , look at macro conditions and capital flows first;
if you hold RWA, AI, or DeFi, look at revenue and valuations first;
if you hold highly leveraged positions, check liquidation levels first.
Don’t ask—just break down the reasons for the drop first, then decide whether to panic.

BTC-1.24%

ETH-1.50%

SOL-0.77%

阿简在路上

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