Everyone is calling the $BTC structure flipped and saying the bull run has started.
But I’m watching one thing closely.
Every time $BTC pushed RSI into the overbought zone during this cycle we saw a major correction right after. We’ve seen it 3 times already and the drawdowns were brutal.
Now RSI is rolling over again while everyone is getting bullish around resistance.
That’s where a bull trap can form.
If the sequence repeats, we could see another major flush that traps late buyers, forces out leverage and eventually sends bitcoin toward a final bottom in Q4 like the previous corrections.
My thesis stays valid below the $82K–$84K area.
A strong high-volume close above that zone would invalidate this setup for me.
$ETH did the hard part on Thursday and handed it back on Friday.
The 4H breakout candle ran $2,407 to $2,517 and price held above $2,500 for four straight closes. Then the jobs print knocked it to $2,431 in one candle and it has sat under $2,500 ever since.
Five flat 4H candles at $2,455 now, right below the 200 week MA.
$2,431 is the line. Hold it and reclaim $2,500 before Sunday's weekly close and the breakout is still alive. Lose it and $2,405 is next.