0xMomo

BTC has dropped to $60,100. It's the sixth consecutive bearish candlestick on the daily chart, and the gains from the past two months have been wiped out in just a week.

However, there's a detail worth noting today: the funding rate has flipped negative.

The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts has turned from positive to negative, and ETH is even more dramatic, with the latest rate hitting a negative 0.0074%. What does this mean? Short positions are becoming extremely crowded, and the cost of shorting is on the rise. When everyone is going short, it often signals that a rebound is brewing.

The Coinbase premium is also converging. Analyst Expitump mentioned that the BTC price spread between Coinbase and Binance is narrowing, indicating that selling pressure in the U.S. market is weakening. His exact words were "an early signal of exhausted sell orders."

On the technical front, BTC's 4-hour RSI has reached 20.9, while ETH is even more extreme at just 14. This level of oversold conditions historically has been followed by a decent rebound. The MACD histogram is still expanding, meaning bearish momentum hasn't exhausted, but with the RSI at this level, the cost-effectiveness of shorting is already quite low.

However, the macro environment is indeed not cooperating. The U.S. non-farm payroll for May massively exceeded expectations, adding 172,000 jobs, while the forecast was only 85,000. With such a strong labor market, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates has dropped significantly. For risk assets, liquidity expectations are the most critical driving force, and this expectation has been disrupted in the short term.

The situation for the Strategy is even more awkward. With a paper loss of $11 billion, Grayscale says their leveraged BTC model is undergoing its first stress test. Saylor published an article stating the need for "disciplined expansion," but the market is more concerned about another issue: if BTC falls below $60,000, where is the liquidation line for the Strategy? This fear itself is exacerbating selling pressure.

The current situation is quite contradictory: the technicals are extremely oversold, short positions are crowded, and the funding rate has flipped negative—these are all rebound signals. But the macro and Strategy risks hang over us like two blades.

$60,000 is key. If it holds, a rebound from the oversold condition is highly likely. If it doesn't, the next support level to watch is $55,000.

In extreme market conditions, volatility is high, and oversold signals do not guarantee a rebound, so manage your positions carefully.

BTC has broken below the 200-week moving average.

This is the first time since October 2023 that we've returned to this line, which blocked the entire 2022 bear market rally. Right now, it's sitting at $60,948, nearly $700 below the 200-week moving average of $61,626.

The daily RSI is at 15.54, the lowest in six years. ETH is faring even worse at 13.25. From any technical indicator, this is extremely oversold.

But oversold doesn't mean we've hit the bottom.

Grayscale's research head Zach Pandl released a report today, directly pointing out that Strategy's leverage model is undergoing its first stress test. STRC trading price has dipped below the $100 face value; if they are forced to raise dividends to compensate investors, cash pressure could lead to more BTC being sold off, creating a negative feedback loop. Strategy sold 32 BTC and $128 million in stock last week, and then BTC dropped another 16%. MSTR's stock price fell to a two-month low of $126.

Peter Schiff echoed similar sentiments: if Strategy raises STRC dividends, cash burn will accelerate, forcing them to sell coins prematurely.

On the macro level, things aren't helping. Non-farm payroll data came in at 172,000, expected at 85,000, indicating a still strong labor market, which further reduces the probability of interest rate cuts. ETFs have seen net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling $4.4 billion. The total market cap of crypto has evaporated by $2 trillion.

However, there's one signal worth noting: the Coinbase premium is shrinking, and funding rates are nearly turning negative. On-chain analyst Expitump calls this an "early signal of seller exhaustion." Daan Crypto Trades also mentions this as a typical "stairs up, elevator down" bear market structure, but the $60K area is the last line of defense.

My take: extreme technical oversold conditions + the 200-week moving average as historical support means the probability of a bounce isn't low. But the leverage risks from Strategy + continued ETF outflows + bleak macro rate cut prospects create a triple structural pressure. This isn't the pure emotional panic we saw in 2022; it's leveraged institutions being forced to deleverage.

If we can't hold $60K, the next support to watch will be around the $54K 200-day moving average. If we can hold, the first target for an oversold bounce is $65K.

Right now, the most important thing isn't to catch the bottom, but to wait for a confirmation signal.

JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, Barclays, and Wells Fargo, these five banking giants managing over $100 trillion in assets, just confirmed one key thing: they're launching a tokenized deposit network in the first half of 2027.

The operator is The Clearing House, the largest interbank payment operator in the US. CEO David Watson told The Wall Street Journal that this network aims to link traditional payment channels with blockchain settlement infrastructure, enabling 24/7 real-time settlements. Tokenized deposits will run within the banks' own compliance frameworks, but they'll enjoy the programmability and speed of stablecoins.

Why push this now? Because stablecoins are starting to eat into banks' lunch. USDC and USDT have already established themselves in corporate treasury, cross-border settlements, and on-chain payment scenarios; if banks don’t act, they’ll just become conduits. JPMorgan's CEO just said last month that they want to 'counter' stablecoin legislation, and now they're jumping into tokenized deposits—talk about saying one thing and doing another.

This isn't an isolated incident. The New York Stock Exchange partnered with Securitize in March to roll out tokenized stocks, Nasdaq received regulatory approval for a pilot on tokenized securities, Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch a 24/7 tokenized securities trading venue, and the South Korean government is looking to use tokenized deposits for government procurement in Q4. The world's largest financial infrastructures are collectively going on-chain.

But the market is pretty lukewarm about this news. BTC is hovering around $60,400 with a 4-hour RSI at just 21, extremely oversold. ETH is in even worse shape with an RSI of 15, almost at panic sell-off levels. Funding rates are negative, meaning shorts are paying.

Prices are dropping, but the infrastructure is being laid down. Wall Street isn't waiting for BTC to bounce back; they're building the entry channels while pushing prices down. By the time the tokenized deposit network launches in 2027, no one knows what the market will look like, but by then, the institutional funding gateways will already be set up.

A key takeaway to remember during this bear market.

Coinbase is rolling out tokenized mortgages this summer, and this is way more important than the price.

Coinbase is teaming up with Better Home & Finance to launch a token-backed mortgage down payment program this summer. You can collateralize with BTC or USDC directly for down payments on Fannie Mae-backed home loans. No need to sell your coins or convert them to fiat first; just collateralize and you're good to go.

Better's CEO Vishal Garg dropped a solid line: "This isn't some niche product; once most financial assets are tokenized, everyone will be doing this. It’s just a better way to buy a house."

Background: The US housing finance regulators issued a directive last June allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to consider crypto assets when assessing mortgage risk, without needing to convert them to fiat first. In February this year, Newrez also started allowing borrowers to use their crypto holdings for mortgage applications. Coinbase is taking this further, not just 'considering' but directly using crypto as collateral.

However, there are political controversies. Some senators warned in a joint letter that including unconverted crypto assets in mortgage assessments "could pose risks to the stability of the housing market and the financial system." Meanwhile, there are pushes for legislation to solidify this direction, with proposals for a 21st Century Mortgage Act already on the table.

Back to the charts, BTC is currently at $62,608, with a 4-hour RSI of just 26.78, and it's been in the oversold zone for quite a while. Funding rate is -0.0014%, and shorts are still paying. ETH is worse off, with an RSI of 20.1, nearly hitting extreme oversold levels. MACD bars are narrowing, indicating that the bearish momentum is waning, but it hasn't flipped positive yet.

Two things are happening simultaneously: on one hand, prices are hitting extreme oversold levels; on the other, major exchanges are building the infrastructure for crypto assets to enter traditional mortgages. The market is hammering down prices, but the foundation is being laid.

In the short term, price fluctuations may continue, but once this product launches, it means there's another use case for crypto assets, and it's in the multi-trillion-dollar mortgage market. This is way more significant for the long-term narrative of the entire industry than any bounce.

Today, the entire privacy sector was blown up by a bomb.

Zcash's Orchard pool was found to have a critical vulnerability — theoretically allowing unlimited minting of ZEC, completely untraceable. The key point is that this flaw has been around since May 2022, and no one noticed it for over four years.

The discovery was made by security engineer Taylor Hornby, using Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.8. On May 29, he conducted an AI-assisted audit of the Orchard circuit's elliptic curve multiplication check and found a backdoor that could forge inputs. He even successfully generated an unlimited amount of fake coins in a test environment. If this had been run on the mainnet, the funds would have been lost.

The Zcash team patched this vulnerability through an emergency hard fork on June 3. But here’s the kicker — due to the privacy features of the Orchard pool, there’s no way to prove whether this vulnerability had been exploited before it was fixed. That’s where the real market panic lies.

Hayes completely liquidated his entire ZEC position, and also sold off HYPE and NEAR, stating "The Holy Trinity is dead." ZEC plummeted over 40% in a day, with a market cap evaporating by over 300 million USD, RSI dropping to 20.95 — extremely oversold, and funding rates at -0.0112% as shorts are piling in.

Even more unsettling is that the tool that discovered this incident was AI. Previously, audits relied on human eyes and formal verification, but now AI can find cryptographic flaws that human auditors missed for four years. This means that in the future, all privacy protocols, ZK circuits, and even smart contracts could face a dimensionality reduction assault from AI audits.

Competitors in the privacy space are also taking hits, with Monero dropping 15%, as the market reassesses the question of "Are privacy protocols really secure?"

$BTC is now around 61900, with a 4-hour RSI of 23 and a daily RSI of 16, as the entire market follows suit downward. But today’s crash in the privacy sector isn’t macro-driven; it’s a structural crisis of trust.

On the positive side, the vulnerability has been patched, the team responded quickly, and Shielded Labs believes this bug was too obscure to have been exploited. But on the negative side, the phrase "we can’t prove it hasn’t been exploited" itself represents the biggest risk.

The paradigm for security audits in the AI era may need to be completely rewritten. Previously, audits gave a sense of security, but now we have to ask: Can AI find what auditors can’t?

CoinShares just dropped their Q1 13F analysis report, and there's a signal worth sharing after going through it.

Pro investors cut their BTC ETF holdings from 313,000 to 261,000 in Q1, a reduction of 17%, with a total value drop of 35% down to $17.8 billion. But the key point isn't who's selling, it's who's buying.

The biggest liquidations came from hedge funds and brokerages, accounting for a whopping 96% of the sell-off. Hedge funds chopped off 31,400 coins, a 39% reduction. Brokerages slashed 18,800 coins, a 53% drop. These two groups are essentially into pair trading and arbitrage; when the market dips, their leverage and tactical positions get automatically liquidated.

On the flip side: banks more than doubled their BTC ETF holdings in Q1, adding 7,800 coins. Investment advisors—the largest professional group—held 150,000 coins and only reduced their positions by 5.9%. They're not running away; they're adjusting their strategy.

In layman's terms: short-term funds are pulling out, while long-term funds are stepping in.

Now, looking at the current technicals. Price is around 63,000, and the daily RSI is at 17.55, which is extremely oversold. The 4-hour RSI is at 28.09, also in the oversold zone. The funding rate is at 0.0013%, nearly zero, and leverage positions are extremely low; nobody's using leverage to gamble on direction.

The MACD histogram is still below the zero line, with no reversal signals in momentum. However, such a low funding rate indicates that the downturn isn't driven by leveraged liquidations but rather by selling pressure in the spot market—perfectly aligning with the report's description of "hedge funds and brokerages closing positions."

CoinShares analyst Matt Kimmell states that this data aligns with BTC's historical retracement patterns, showing that leverage and tactical positions are unwinding. Every bear market plays out like this—short-term players exit first, long-term players step in later, and once the market absorbs the selling pressure, the structure shifts.

Regulatory aspects are also changing. Regulatory bodies released a draft for a digital asset strategy this week, aiming to establish a regulatory framework by 2030. The market structure bill is expected to go to vote as early as August.

In summary: Q1 data is clear, short-term trading funds are retreating, while banks and long-term strategic funds are entering. At a price of 63,000, with a daily RSI of 17.55 indicating extreme overselling, and a funding rate nearly at zero, the market structure is changing—it's just that the price hasn't reflected that yet.

BTC is wobbling in the oversold zone at 62K, but you might not have noticed—traditional payment giants are moving onto the blockchain at a record pace.

Western Union announced yesterday the launch of the USDPT stablecoin on Bybit, marking the first time the payment giant's digital dollar has hit a mainstream crypto exchange. USDPT was issued on Solana in May, with reserves managed by Anchorage Digital Bank, designed to align perfectly with the regulatory framework of the U.S. GENIUS Act.

Thought it was just Western Union? MoneyGram launched MGUSD on Stellar earlier this month, Mastercard announced yesterday it is expanding support for settlements in USDC, PYUSD, and RLUSD, and Visa's stablecoin settlement pilot has already ramped up to an annualized trading volume of $7 billion.

Four traditional payment giants accelerating their stablecoin strategies in the same month is no coincidence. DeFiLlama data shows the total market cap of dollar-pegged stablecoins is nearing $32 billion. Using World Bank data, a $200 cross-border remittance typically incurs a fee of around 6-7% through traditional channels, whereas using stablecoin digital transfers can cut that down to 1-2%. Just this one aspect presents a multi-billion dollar profit margin for Western Union waiting to be eroded—so they’re not sitting back; they’re saving themselves.

On the technical side, SOL dropped by 2.5%, with a 4h RSI of only 22.6, indicating extreme oversold conditions, and funding rates are nearly zero. XLM fell by 6%, with an RSI of 37 also in the weak zone. Interestingly, these two chains happen to be the launch chains for USDPT and MGUSD, respectively—while infrastructure is expanding, prices are correcting, showcasing a clear split between builder pricing and speculator pricing.

BTC itself has an RSI of 25.4, also extremely oversold, with a funding rate of 0.001% almost at zero. When the market is in panic, no one cares what roads stablecoins are paving. But the $32 billion stablecoin market is no child’s play; traditional finance giants are voting with real money.

My take is: prices reflect fear, but infrastructure reflects the future. Once the market regains its senses, these pre-laid roads will become conduits for new capital entering the space. Don't rush in the short term, but this trend is worth keeping an eye on.

BNB has dropped to $606, looking like it's being dragged down by the market just like BTC. But after a closer look at the technicals, this coin's structure is way more interesting than its price suggests.

Let’s talk about the position. BNB has been ranging between $588 to $745 over the past 30 days, and now at $606, it’s just 3% away from the bottom of that range. The 4-hour RSI is at 32.69, close to the oversold zone but not at extreme levels yet. Daily RSI is at 39.45, weak but not crashing. In contrast, BTC's 4-hour RSI is at 28.86, which is extremely oversold, while BNB's drop is actually more restrained.

What surprised me the most is the funding rate. BNB's funding rate is currently at 0.0000%, completely zeroed out. This is extremely rare among all major coins. BTC still has a slight bullish premium of 0.0013% and ETH has 0.0047%, but BNB is straight up zero. What does this mean? Leverage traders have no directional bets on BNB, neither long nor short, with price discovery entirely driven by the spot market. A price support formed under these conditions is much more solid than one built on leverage.

On the MACD front, the 4-hour histogram shows a positive value of +4.20, with the fast line above the signal line. Although the absolute value isn’t huge, the fact that the MACD histogram can maintain a positive number amidst continuous price declines indicates that the downward momentum is weakening. Shorts have taken a round but haven’t accelerated, contrasting with BTC’s MACD histogram of -234.

The moving average structure isn’t looking too optimistic. The SMA 20 is at $637, and the SMA 50 is at $659, with the price far below both moving averages. A short-term cost above long-term cost has formed an inversion. Until we reclaim $637, the technicals can only be described as a pattern of oversold rebound, not a trend reversal.

Why is BNB holding up better than BTC in this drop? I think the core logic hasn’t changed—Binance itself is one of the few infrastructures still making profits in this market cycle. Although trading volume is shrinking, cash flows from platform fees, contract fees, and Launchpad revenue are solid. BNB's staking and burn mechanism continues to reduce supply. Prices can get smashed by sentiment, but the fundamental cash flow moat won’t disappear just because BTC dropped 20%.

Key observation points: $588 is the bottom of the 30-day range; if it breaks, the next support is around $550. However, if BTC can hold the 200-week moving average at $61,626, the chances of BNB stabilizing around the $600 mark are high. A zero funding rate means there’s no risk of leverage blowups; even if it drops, it will be driven by spot selling pressure without cascading liquidations.

My take: Right now, BNB is in an interesting position—technicals are weak but not crashing, leverage positions are clean, and the platform's fundamentals are supportive. It’s not suitable for chasing highs, but if you’re bullish on the exchange sector long-term, this position is worth adding to your watchlist. At least it's healthier than those with RSI already below 20 and negative funding rates.

Investing involves risks, and the above is just my personal observation, not investment advice.

Scrolling through Twitter, it's all about the 'doom loop'. Strategy used $1.38 billion in cash to buy back convertible bonds and has paused BTC purchases, now sitting on a paper loss of $11 billion with only $900 million left—enough to cover 6 months of dividends.

What’s the market scared of? The fear is that Strategy might be forced to liquidate its BTC reserves, triggering a chain reaction. But the article makes it clear: the convertible bonds don’t have a forced liquidation clause, and an 11% net leverage is still conservative at BTC dropping to $30K. The panic is real, but the triggering conditions haven’t been met yet.

What’s more concerning is that funds are relocating. The profit effect in the AI sector is too strong—Micron and SK Hynix’s market caps have both surpassed $1 trillion, and the Nasdaq is hitting new highs despite macro headwinds. In the crypto market narrative vacuum, funds naturally flow to where there’s a story.

Technical signals are in conflict. The daily RSI is at 17.87, marking an extreme oversold zone since 2022. Funding rates are at -0.0011%, with shorts paying to short. Historical experience tells us that when everyone is shorting in the same direction, the probability of a short-term rebound actually increases. BTC is currently at $63,346, just 2.5% away from the 200-week moving average of $61,827. This line defined the bottom of the 2022 bear market; dropping below it would mean rewriting the entire bull market narrative.

I think the key isn’t 'will there be a rebound' but 'can the rebound sustain itself'. Short covering can push a wave, but a true sentiment reversal requires seeing three signals: Strategy expanding its cash reserves again, ETF fund flows turning positive, or a clear macro tailwind emerging. Until then, the $60K-$61.8K range is the battleground for bulls and bears.

Goldman Sachs has taken another step forward in the tokenization game. This time, it’s not about government bonds or money market funds; they’ve brought an entire European real estate fund onto the chain.

Apex Group announced today that they are providing fund management services for a tokenized real estate fund, with shares issued through Goldman Sachs' GS DAP platform. The lineup of partners for this fund is quite interesting: Goldman Sachs provides the tech platform, LRC Group manages the European real estate assets, Archax exchange handles custody and initial distribution, and Ownera offers cross-chain interoperability.

The GS DAP itself isn’t a new concept. It launched in 2022, built on the privacy-first Canton Network combined with the Digital Asset’s DAML smart contract language. But this time, it’s different—it's not just a proof of concept; they’ve actually turned revenue-generating real estate assets into on-chain shares. Mathew McDermott, head of digital assets at Goldman Sachs, directly stated, "Issuing on-chain native fund units on GS DAP allows precise investment in real estate assets while unlocking possibilities for seamless transfers in the future."

The density of institutional-level tokenization is accelerating. In the same week, Apex Group and Coinbase launched a BTC yield fund on the Base chain, JPMorgan is continuously expanding tokenization infrastructure through Kinexys, and Bernstein's report states that the total scale of RWA has already surpassed $51 billion. It’s not just one player; an entire sector is gearing up.

Looking back at ONDO, the leading token in the RWA sector, it dropped 10.6% today, priced at $0.38. The 4-hour RSI is at 49, neutral; the MACD histogram has turned negative, and the funding rate at -0.0022% indicates market divergence. Prices are down but the RSI isn’t extreme, suggesting this isn’t panic selling but more of an adjustment alongside the broader market. BTC also fell 3% today, with an RSI of 26 indicating extreme overselling. In this environment, it’s normal for RWA tokens to drop as well.

Interestingly, although ONDO is down, the infrastructure development for RWA is accelerating. This mismatch between price and development has been ongoing for several weeks—Goldman Sachs is launching products, JPMorgan is building out the network, RWA.xyz data is rising, but the secondary market is killing valuations. In the short term, ONDO and the entire RWA sector will have to bear pressure alongside BTC. In the long term, every layer of this institutional-level infrastructure laid down increases the overall pie of real assets on-chain.

Once market sentiment recovers, these projects quietly paving the way today will be among the first to benefit. But there’s no rush right now; BTC’s RSI at 26 is still in the overselling zone, so let’s wait for stabilization before taking a look.

Risk Warning: The overall market is currently in a downtrend, with technicals leaning weak; short-term investments should be approached with caution.

Tonight's initial jobless claims data is coming in, expected at 225,000, with the previous value at 215,000.

Don't underestimate this number. It directly impacts the market's judgment on the Fed's rate cut expectations, indirectly determining whether $BTC can hold above $60K this round.

BTC is currently at $63,819, down 3.24% in the last 24 hours. This position is quite awkward, just hovering above the 200-week moving average at $61,626. That line was a rock-solid resistance during the 2022 bear market, and now it's the last line of support. The last time BTC touched this line was in October 2023, after which it surged to $100K.

Technically, we've reached an extreme position. The daily RSI has dropped to 17.35, the lowest reading since 2020. The 4-hour RSI at 27.16 is also in the oversold zone. More critically, the funding rate is at -0.0011%, nearly zero. What does this indicate? It's not leverage crashing the market; it's spot selling off. $600 million in long positions have been liquidated, and ETFs have seen a net outflow of $4.4 billion for 13 consecutive days, market sentiment has completely broken down.

But looking at it from another angle, every time we hit extreme oversold conditions, it means selling pressure is exhausting. The last time $BTC 's daily RSI dropped this low, it rebounded by 40% within two months. CollinTalksCrypto says, "Falling below the 200-week moving average is the best buy zone," and Michaël van de Poppe also mentions, "Now is the accumulation zone."

Tonight's initial claims data is a key catalyst. If it exceeds expectations, it indicates a loosening labor market, which could heighten selling pressure testing towards $58K. However, if the data comes in mild, combined with the technical oversold rebound demand, if we can hold above $60K, the next stop is $65K.

Right now, bulls and bears are at a stalemate at this crossroads. My judgment is that cutting losses at this position isn't worth it, but don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for the data to come in before making a decision.

$BTC has dropped to $63,600, and today it touched the 200-week moving average at $61,626. The last time it hit this line was in October 2023, and before that, it was at the bottom of the 2022 bear market. This is the first time in three years that we've returned here.

The daily RSI has plummeted to 17.35, the lowest since 2020. The 4-hour RSI is also only 26.63, extremely oversold. But extreme oversold conditions don't guarantee a rebound; in 2022, this line acted as resistance for over half a year until the bull market was confirmed.

The liquidation data speaks volumes. BTC dropped from $71,300 to $65,360, triggering $1.83 billion in liquidations, of which long positions were liquidated for $1.58 billion. This is the largest single-day liquidation event since BTC broke below $60K on February 6. Analyst Byzantine General stated it was "the largest BTC long liquidation since the black swan event on October 10 last year." Liquidity has been thoroughly flushed out.

Meanwhile, BTC ETFs have seen net outflows for 13 consecutive days, totaling $4.4 billion. The Strategy fund's paper losses have surpassed $11 billion. BTC supply on Binance has reached a three-month high of 659,000 coins, with on-chain analysts calling this a "signal that selling pressure may intensify."

But there's another side. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said this is an "accumulation zone." CollinTalksCrypto noted the return to the 200-week moving average, stating that "the best entry points in a bear market often occur below the 200-week moving average." The funding rate for BTC has turned negative at -0.0011%, indicating that leveraged long positions have been completely wiped out; this isn't a panic sell-off but rather a structural clearing.

My take is: $61,626 is a critical observation point. If it holds, this would validate structural support in the bull market since 2023; if it breaks, we might see a repeat of the 2022 "resistance-turned-support-turned-resistance" story. Currently, the macro environment has geopolitical risks and continuous pressure from ETF outflows, but the level of overselling has reached historical extremes.

This doesn't constitute investment advice, but this level deserves serious attention.

The SpaceX IPO roadshow officially kicked off today, with 555 million shares expected to list on June 12. Interestingly, the crypto space isn't just watching from the sidelines this time—four major exchanges have simultaneously launched pre-IPO trading products for SpaceX.

Coinbase introduced a perpetual contract for the pre-IPO today, settled in USDC, allowing 24/7 trading with no expiration date, automatically converting to post-IPO contracts after the listing. Kraken's parent company, Payward, announced a tokenized IPO channel yesterday. Binance launched SpaceX derivatives back in May, and Bitget rolled out IPO Prime in April. All four are making bets at the same time; this isn't a coincidence.

The RWA market has surged to $51 billion this year, expanding by 42%. Although tokenized stocks currently account for a small portion of the RWA market, trading volumes for major tech names like Tesla and Alphabet have already picked up on-chain. SpaceX, being the highest-valued private company globally, has become the first target all exchanges are vying for.

However, on the same day, Arthur Hayes did the opposite. He liquidated his positions in HYPE and NEAR, selling approximately $18 million worth of HYPE, publicly stating that the AI IPO wave would draw liquidity away from the crypto market in Q3. His logic is that with OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX all IPO-ing simultaneously, market funds will be siphoned off.

This creates an interesting standoff: Hayes argues that IPOs will drain liquidity, while exchanges claim that IPOs are the next product line. Both sides have valid points. In the short term, there's indeed a risk of funds flowing from the crypto market to the stock market on SpaceX's listing day, especially from that risk-hungry batch of money. However, in the long term, moving IPO trading on-chain is an irreversible trend—exchanges are not losing users; they are using IPOs to attract new users.

Back to the charts, BTC is at $64,089, with a 4-hour RSI of 28, indicating extreme overselling, and the funding rate is only 0.0015%; the market is already quite fearful. ETH also has an RSI of 28, dropping to $1,777. At this level, the SpaceX IPO presents both a short-term risk of fund diversion and a long-term user entry point. It all depends on which time frame you choose to view the issue.

BTC crashed to $61,384 this morning, with over $617 million in long positions liquidated within 24 hours, completely washing out the leverage market.

Let’s talk numbers. CoinGlass data shows that a total of $737 million was liquidated in the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for $617 million. The longs were overcrowded, and just a pullback swept them all clean. ETH and SOL didn't escape either, dropping 5.4% and 7.2% respectively, with the entire altcoin sector bleeding out.

But the key point is that BTC has held around $61,800. This level is the 200-week moving average, which has marked the bear market bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2020. Here we are again. After liquidating the longs, BTC rebounded 5.5% to $63,400, indicating that there is indeed buying pressure coming in after the leverage washout.

The 4-hour RSI is at 23, and the daily RSI is at 17, both in extreme oversold territory. The funding rate dropped to 0.0015%, with longs and shorts nearly balanced, and the leverage crowding has significantly decreased. This is a good sign, suggesting that the rebound isn’t just a leverage bubble.

However, there's a potential bearish pattern on the weekly chart—a bull flag breakdown, targeting $50,000-$52,000. If BTC breaks below the 200-week moving average, this pattern will be confirmed. The bulls have a clear bottom line: they can't let go of $61,800.

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon has fueled this rebound, but the sustainability of this geopolitically driven bounce is in question. Currently, the market sentiment index is at 12, reflecting extreme fear for two consecutive days, with panic reaching its peak.

In my view, the $600 million long liquidation combined with the support of the 200-week moving average means the leverage has been thoroughly washed out. This isn’t a confirmation of a bottom, but at least it’s an observation window after the panic release. In the next 48 hours, we’ll see if $61,800 can hold; if it does, there’s a chance to bounce towards $69,000-$70,000. If it doesn’t hold, then that’s really another story.

BTC's ETF channel has seen outflows for 13 consecutive days, totaling $4.4 billion. This breaks last year's record of $3.2 billion over 8 days on February 8.

Today alone, another $397 million has flowed out. BlackRock's IBIT accounts for $3.3 billion, making up 75% of the total. Fidelity comes in second with $457 million, followed by Grayscale at $304 million.

From May 15 until now, BTC has plummeted from $80,000 to $63,400, a drop of 21%. During the same period, a net outflow of 51,726 BTC has occurred, valued at about $5 billion.

Julio Moreno, the head of research at CryptoQuant, stated that overall demand has decreased by 501,000 BTC over the past month, marking the fastest decline in demand since the Terra collapse in 2022.

However, Bloomberg's ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has a different take. He mentioned that long-term institutional buyers, including ETFs and strategies, are still net accumulators. His exact words were, "Forget the retail crowd, we need to call the OGs, they're the real driving force behind this."

Interestingly, despite such a collapse in demand, the funding rate is only 0.0072%. This isn't a leveraged sell-off; it's real money being sold.

The 4-hour RSI for BTC has dropped to 15.9, indicating extreme oversold conditions. ETH's RSI is at 22, and BNB's RSI is at 24, all in the oversold zone. Historically, when RSI hits this level, it is often followed by a corrective rebound.

My current judgment is that the peak of ETF outflows may have passed. Thirteen consecutive days of outflows itself is an extreme expression of sentiment, and extremes often signal that a turning point isn't far off. But 'not far' doesn't mean 'rebound tomorrow.'

Key observation point: If the outflow over the next 3 days decreases from $400 million to below $200 million, the trend will start to slow down. If BTC can hold the psychological level of $60,000 without breaking it, the chances of an oversold recovery will increase.

Just remember, the inertia of ETF outflows won't vanish overnight, so don't rush to catch the bottom. Wait for signals of reduced volume and stable prices before making a move.

BTC dipped to 63000, RSI hit 17, and the market is panicking to the max. But today, two pieces of news have me thinking that Wall Street is rushing into crypto.

Kraken's parent company, Payward, announced that retail investors will soon be able to participate in US stock IPOs at the offering price. This isn't about chasing gains in the secondary market; it's directly obtaining IPO allocations and holding them on-chain in the form of tokenized stocks. Each token corresponds 1:1 with the underlying shares and is held by a licensed custodian. The first products will launch in a few weeks, and xStocks has already racked up $30 billion in trading volume, with $6 billion in on-chain settlements and 125,000 holders.

Payward’s head was pretty straightforward: for the last few decades, getting IPO pricing has been a privilege based on geography and net worth. Now, retail investors in Medellín and institutions in New York can have the same entry point.

On the same day, Revolut also dropped some news. They’re applying for a US banking license and plan to launch banking services next year, directly integrating stablecoin functionality. With 75 million global users, FDIC deposit insurance, multi-currency accounts, and crypto trading. They aren’t doing banking on a crypto platform; they’re doing crypto in a bank.

Put these two things together, and the picture is clear: the RWA tokenization market is already at $51 billion, up 42% this year. The stablecoin market is at $319.5 billion, a 29% year-over-year increase. Mastercard just announced support for USDC settlements, SoFi launched its own dollar stablecoin, and Falcon Finance issued institutional-grade stablecoins through a compliant platform. Traditional finance isn’t just watching; they’re lining up to enter.

But BTC dropped another 5% today, RSI at 17 in extreme oversold territory, with a funding rate of just 0.0015%, and leverage is nearly zero. ETH RSI is at 23, and BNB fell by 6.6%. The market is in panic sell-off mode, but development has never stopped.

This is why I find things interesting right now. Prices are telling one story, while on-chain and institutions are telling another. Short-term sentiment and long-term structure are completely disconnected. Once the panic is digested, these infrastructures will still be there.

I’m not saying to catch the bottom; I just think it’s worth keeping an eye on this contrast.

The Bitcoin ETF premium has dropped to a two-year low, but I think this is exactly the time to think seriously about it.

First, let’s check the data. The Fear and Greed index plummeted from 29 on Monday to 11, the lowest in two months. The RSI on the 4-hour chart is only at 19, even lower than yesterday's 18. ETH is similar, around 25, also oversold. The funding rate for BTC is just 0.0027%, and for ETH, it's 0.0077%, low enough to indicate almost no leverage crowding.

This isn’t a normal correction; it’s an emotional collapse.

But there’s a detail many people haven’t noticed. The S&P 500 hit a new high yesterday. BTC dropped nearly 5%, while U.S. stocks are rising. Analyst Cryptic Trades put it bluntly: "Low participation, poor sentiment, social buzz has collapsed, and bearish voices are overwhelming. Ironically, because of these factors, I continue to be bullish on the larger cycle."

His words aren’t just mindless optimism but are based on a fact: Historically, every time there’s been extreme fear readings, we’ve seen varying degrees of rebounds afterward. The question is, is this time different?

I think we need to look at two things. First, why is the ETF premium dropping? The ETF premium reflects how much institutional investors are willing to pay above market for BTC. A drop to a two-year low indicates that institutions are currently observing rather than panic selling. This is different from retail fear.

Second, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent mentioned today at the Senate hearing that the CLARITY Act is expected to pass this summer. His exact words were "moving forward at the fastest speed possible." This means the regulatory framework is tightening but the direction is clear—not a ban but building rules. 328,372 BTC are in the U.S. strategic reserves; that’s not a selling pressure that can be digested in the short term.

Now the question is: extreme fear + oversold RSI + low funding rates + favorable macro policies, what do these conditions usually mean together? Typically, they signal a precursor to a rebound. But the experience from 2022 tells us that oversold can become more oversold, and fear can go deeper.

My judgment is: there might be another dip in the short term because the U.S.-Iran situation and inflation expectations are still weighing down. But if you’re in for the mid to long-term, the current panic sentiment is actually a window for accumulation. Wait for BTC to hold the support at $62K before considering adding to your position. If it breaks below, the next support is at $58K.

In times of extreme fear, what’s needed most is not courage, but discipline.

A whale just got wrecked shorting HYPE on Hyperliquid, losing a whopping $46.46 million. Last Tuesday, they finally threw in the towel and closed their position, then instantly flipped long.

This trader goes by loracle.hl, and not only did they buy HYPE, but they also spread their position into ZEC and NEAR. Combined, these three positions add up to nearly $14 million in long exposure, currently seeing unrealized gains of over $920,000. These three coins are exactly what Arthur Hayes referred to as the "Holy Trinity"—he called HYPE to hit $150, NEAR to 20x, and ZEC to 5x earlier this year.

Why is ZEC worth a special mention? Because its funding rate is currently negative at -0.0415%. This means that shorts are actually paying longs. This extreme negative rate is particularly interesting in the context of BTC's sharp drop—BTC's RSI has plummeted to 19, indicating it's extremely oversold, yet ZEC's 4-hour RSI is only 57, daily RSI is also 57, and MACD bars are in the green. While the market is panicking, ZEC isn’t following the trend down, and shorts are paying to maintain their positions.

What does this indicate? ZEC's price action is decoupling from BTC. Over the past month, BTC has dropped from $80,000 to $64,000, a 20% decline, yet ZEC has surged from $400 to $615, gaining over 50%. Capital is moving from BTC into privacy coins and high Beta assets.

Hayes’ logic is that BTC is no longer exhibiting enough volatility to generate outsized returns, so smart money is seeking "high Beta trades outside of BTC." ZEC's market cap is just 1% of BTC's, so the same amount of capital entering ZEC would result in much greater price elasticity.

Of course, we must discuss the risks. ZEC's trading volume has recently shrunk, with the 5-day average volume only 0.67 times that of the previous 5 days. If the broader market continues to deteriorate and BTC breaks below $60,000, these high Beta assets may correct harder. Moreover, HYPE itself isn’t on mainstream exchanges, so its liquidity doesn't match ZEC's.

But at least the current signals suggest that when a trader who lost $46 million in shorts flips to long, the market's extreme sentiment might be nearing its peak.

Base's AI agent just crossed over 100 million payments.

Chainalysis dropped a report today showing that Coinbase's x402 protocol has executed over 100 million machine-to-machine payments on the Base chain in just nine months. The protocol itself isn't complicated: when an AI agent accesses a data source or API, it pays directly with stablecoins, with no human confirmation needed throughout the entire process.

The early growth was boosted by a memecoin experiment called PING, where users had to pay via x402 to mint tokens, causing a surge in volume. When the hype around PING cooled off, the volume didn't crash; instead, it stabilized.

What's really interesting is the structural changes. At the beginning of 2025, transactions over $1 made up 49% of the total transfer value; by the beginning of 2026, that number shot up to 95%. This shift from micropayment experiments to a genuine value transfer channel is significant. The weekly retention rate of on-chain wallets is also climbing, indicating that this isn't just a one-time speculative wave.

Coinbase CEO Armstrong, Circle CEO Allaire, and former Binance CEO CZ have all publicly stated that AI agents will become major players in on-chain activities. CZ went so far as to say that cryptocurrency is the native currency for AI agents. It's not just the crypto space that's paying attention; Stripe has also launched the Machine Payments Protocol, and Bernstein analysts believe AI agents will significantly drive stablecoin demand.

Back to the charts. ETH is currently at $1766, with a 4-hour RSI of 23 and a daily RSI of 18, indicating extreme oversold conditions. The funding rate is at 0.0077%, suggesting almost no one is using leverage. BTC's RSI is also at an extreme 15. Prices are taking a hit, but the data from the AI agent payment sector is trending in a positive direction.

WLD went against the trend today, rising 30%, benefiting from the AI narrative. ENA is up 17%, and funds are flowing back into the DeFi sector.

The 100 million transactions via x402 mark a watershed moment. Discussions about AI agent payments were previously just conceptual; on-chain data now proves that this system is genuinely being utilized. The quality migration from micropayments to larger transfers indicates this isn't just a speculative frenzy, but real use cases are developing.

The market may drop, but the narrative will not stop. Once the market stabilizes, the AI agent payment sector will be a key focus for funds. This is just a heat observation and should not be construed as investment advice.

BTC's daily RSI has hit 18; the last time it reached this number was in June 2022. Back then, BTC plummeted from $30k to $17k. Now, at $63,600, the price is nearly 13% away from the 200-day moving average at $73,200, and the fear factor is off the charts.

But there’s one key difference this time.

Today, the whole market is only slightly red, with WLD up 34%, ENA up 19%, and OPN up 73%. These aren’t small-cap memes; these are real tokens with genuine trading volume. The overall market is down 4.6%, yet some sectors are countering the trend with increased volume. This signals that capital hasn’t completely exited; it’s just a repositioning.

Looking at the funding rates, BTC is only at 0.0027%, and ETH is merely at 0.0077%. Such low rates indicate what? The drop isn’t due to leveraged longs getting wrecked; it’s selling pressure on the spot market. In other words, this is panic selling, not a cascade of liquidations. Panic selling can actually hit a bottom more easily than leveraged blow-ups because during the transfer of chips from weak hands to strong hands, the sell-side will naturally exhaust.

On the macro front, signals are also being released. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent mentioned during a Senate hearing today that the CLARITY Act could pass this summer. This act addresses the regulatory jurisdiction over securities and commodities, and once implemented, it would fully open up the compliance channels for institutional entry. Meanwhile, the U.S. government holds 328,372 BTC, worth about $21.5 billion. These coins were not purchased; they were seized, but the Secretary has clearly stated they are pushing for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Policy direction and market direction are at odds: bearish in the short term, but not pessimistic in the medium term.

Regarding ETH, $1,795 has already broken through the $1.8K support level that analysts were monitoring. Bitmine just bought $52 million worth of ETH last week, and CEO Tom Lee mentioned that the price hasn’t yet reflected Ethereum’s true value. Institutions are accumulating while retail investors are cutting losses; this kind of divergence is usually most evident at the bottom range.

Personally, I believe an RSI of 18 is indeed extreme; historically, every time it gets near this level, there’s a bounce. But a bounce doesn’t equal a reversal; the 200-day moving average at $73K is a clear resistance level. In the short term, watch for two signals: first, whether the daily RSI can recover from 18 to above 30 to confirm an oversold correction, and second, whether volume can increase during any bounce. If both conditions are met, it could signify a temporary bottom; if the bounce lacks volume, it’s just a technical pullback.

When fear sets in, taking a closer look at the structure is far more reliable than just following emotions.