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李耳
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李耳

交易员李耳|清华硕士|金融科班出身。多年加密货币实盘交易经验。研究方向:宏观周期|机构资金|链上数据|技术结构。交易理念:用数据看市场,用纪律做交易。观点仅供学习,不构成投资建议。
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If Codex is a product made by Chinese people $⬇️#codex
If Codex is a product made by Chinese people $⬇️#codex
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Bearish
⭐ #HYPE #Today's market update The HYPE position has now fallen below the rising wedge channel. Currently, the price has reached the first support level at 62.2 and has shown support there. Yesterday’s drop was a high-volume sell-off, and the close was below. Going forward, today as long as we pull back to the upper resistance area without breaking it, we should consider shorting into strength, because the trend has turned into a downward trend. Resistance above: 65.4-66.1 Support below: 62.2-60.5 Today’s plan: bias bearish—don’t chase shorts. Short into rallies; if it pulls back with high volume and closes back above the wedge, then we’ll stand by.
⭐ #HYPE #Today's market update

The HYPE position has now fallen below the rising wedge channel. Currently, the price has reached the first support level at 62.2 and has shown support there.

Yesterday’s drop was a high-volume sell-off, and the close was below. Going forward, today as long as we pull back to the upper resistance area without breaking it, we should consider shorting into strength, because the trend has turned into a downward trend.

Resistance above: 65.4-66.1
Support below: 62.2-60.5

Today’s plan: bias bearish—don’t chase shorts. Short into rallies; if it pulls back with high volume and closes back above the wedge, then we’ll stand by.
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Article
#BTC  #Weekly Level Analysis  #Weekly Report📌Figure 1: Weekly moving average structure The upper moving averages are getting closer and closer. The weekly moving average death cross is a relatively clear bottom signal. The July rebound did not change the direction of the moving averages, so the long-term outlook remains bearish. 📌Figure 2: Bollinger Bands and channel support The weekly Bollinger Band opening is gradually expanding, indicating that market volatility is starting to increase; afterward, a directional market with larger price swings may emerge. Meanwhile, the current price is close to the lower Bollinger Band and the lower edge of the descending channel—these two areas form strong confluence support. To break through this support zone directly, there needs to be a clearly amplified selling pressure and trading volume to match; otherwise, the price is more likely to first run a rebound and repair.

#BTC  #Weekly Level Analysis  #Weekly Report

📌Figure 1: Weekly moving average structure
The upper moving averages are getting closer and closer. The weekly moving average death cross is a relatively clear bottom signal. The July rebound did not change the direction of the moving averages, so the long-term outlook remains bearish.
📌Figure 2: Bollinger Bands and channel support
The weekly Bollinger Band opening is gradually expanding, indicating that market volatility is starting to increase; afterward, a directional market with larger price swings may emerge. Meanwhile, the current price is close to the lower Bollinger Band and the lower edge of the descending channel—these two areas form strong confluence support. To break through this support zone directly, there needs to be a clearly amplified selling pressure and trading volume to match; otherwise, the price is more likely to first run a rebound and repair.
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Bearish
⭐  #HYPE  #Today’s Market Update    On the daily timeframe, HYPE is in a converging stage of an ascending wedge. We can see that the current price is already testing the lower boundary. This lower boundary was tested multiple times in the past without breaking through. So this time, we need to watch whether it breaks below this lower boundary—if it does, a major pullback will follow. For the pullback targets: first look at the previous low at 62.3; the second is 52.7, which was another prior low.    On the 1-hour timeframe, it has formed a rectangular consolidation range. During this consolidation: the key resistance at the upper boundary is 69.1, and the key support at the lower boundary is 66.1. Next, for weekend rectangular consolidation areas like this: if price reaches the lower boundary and finds support, you can attempt a long (buy low); if price comes to the upper boundary and meets resistance, you can attempt a short (sell high). If the daily timeframe breaks below this rectangular range, and tomorrow morning the candle closes below the range, then you can wait for a retest and look to short it. Alternatively, if the 1-hour timeframe has a valid breakdown below 66.1, it can trigger an equal-distance decline from the box pattern, with the downside target at 63.0    Resistance above: 69.1–72.5  Support below: 66.1–65.4    Today’s plan: range-bound trading. You can buy low near the key support at the lower boundary, and short on rallies near resistance.
⭐ #HYPE #Today’s Market Update

On the daily timeframe, HYPE is in a converging stage of an ascending wedge. We can see that the current price is already testing the lower boundary. This lower boundary was tested multiple times in the past without breaking through. So this time, we need to watch whether it breaks below this lower boundary—if it does, a major pullback will follow. For the pullback targets: first look at the previous low at 62.3; the second is 52.7, which was another prior low.

On the 1-hour timeframe, it has formed a rectangular consolidation range. During this consolidation: the key resistance at the upper boundary is 69.1, and the key support at the lower boundary is 66.1. Next, for weekend rectangular consolidation areas like this: if price reaches the lower boundary and finds support, you can attempt a long (buy low); if price comes to the upper boundary and meets resistance, you can attempt a short (sell high). If the daily timeframe breaks below this rectangular range, and tomorrow morning the candle closes below the range, then you can wait for a retest and look to short it. Alternatively, if the 1-hour timeframe has a valid breakdown below 66.1, it can trigger an equal-distance decline from the box pattern, with the downside target at 63.0

Resistance above: 69.1–72.5
Support below: 66.1–65.4

Today’s plan: range-bound trading. You can buy low near the key support at the lower boundary, and short on rallies near resistance.
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Bullish
#Ascending Triangle #Descending Triangle #Symmetrical Triangle #Ascending Flag #Descending Flag #Wedge Consolidation 📊 Li Er Teaching Classroom: Common Trend Patterns This chart mainly helps you recognize several trend consolidation patterns that are most common in the market—such as ascending triangles, descending triangles, symmetrical triangles, ascending flags, descending flags, and wedge consolidations. In essence, these patterns all reflect the market “building energy” during volatility, waiting for a subsequent direction choice. 🔼 Ascending triangles and ascending flags are generally bullish and commonly seen in consolidations during an uptrend 🔽 Descending triangles and descending flags are generally bearish and commonly seen as a continuation (retrace/relay) during a downtrend ➡️ Symmetrical triangles indicate that bullish and bearish forces are converging and battling; the final direction must wait for confirmation after a breakout 📈 Wedge consolidations often signify that volatility is gradually narrowing and a turning point is near—especially pay attention to false breakouts. ⚠️ Remember one thing: The pattern itself is not a reason to enter. The truly important factors are the breakout direction, whether volume confirms, and the location where it appears.$BTC {future}(BTCUSDT)
#Ascending Triangle #Descending Triangle #Symmetrical Triangle #Ascending Flag #Descending Flag #Wedge Consolidation
📊 Li Er Teaching Classroom: Common Trend Patterns

This chart mainly helps you recognize several trend consolidation patterns that are most common in the market—such as ascending triangles, descending triangles, symmetrical triangles, ascending flags, descending flags, and wedge consolidations. In essence, these patterns all reflect the market “building energy” during volatility, waiting for a subsequent direction choice.

🔼 Ascending triangles and ascending flags are generally bullish and commonly seen in consolidations during an uptrend

🔽 Descending triangles and descending flags are generally bearish and commonly seen as a continuation (retrace/relay) during a downtrend

➡️ Symmetrical triangles indicate that bullish and bearish forces are converging and battling; the final direction must wait for confirmation after a breakout

📈 Wedge consolidations often signify that volatility is gradually narrowing and a turning point is near—especially pay attention to false breakouts.

⚠️ Remember one thing:
The pattern itself is not a reason to enter. The truly important factors are the breakout direction, whether volume confirms, and the location where it appears.$BTC
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Bearish
⭐️  #ETH  Market update for today   ETH on the daily chart can currently be viewed in two ways: (1) the daily rectangular range/box, and (2) a rising channel formed by the recent daily lows that have held and turned into support. Both are in resonance with each other. For now, the key short-term resistance levels are at 1783 and 1880. This area is a pressure point on a trendline and also a dense-volume zone from a prior high. If the price can break through the descending trendline here, and then retest it to confirm it holds (does not break), there is a chance the price will continue upward to test further. For the resistance along the upper boundary of the channel, watch 1833–1848. This region is a strong short-term resistance zone; once price reaches it, focus on possible high-altitude/upper-range opportunities. On the 4-hour timeframe, the small box has already completed its switch from top to bottom and back. The previous resistance level at 1757 has now turned into short-term support. Going forward, if price retraces to 1757 and stabilizes there, and the rebound continues, you can consider a small long entry. Targets: first look at 1783 and 1800, and then further at 1833. Resistance above: 1783–1800; break above to see 1833–1850 Support below: 1757–1740; if it breaks below 1722 📌 Today’s bias: overall bullish—don’t chase. Buy on pullbacks to lower levels. If price spikes higher directly, watch for short-term high-altitude opportunities.
⭐️ #ETH Market update for today

ETH on the daily chart can currently be viewed in two ways: (1) the daily rectangular range/box, and (2) a rising channel formed by the recent daily lows that have held and turned into support. Both are in resonance with each other.

For now, the key short-term resistance levels are at 1783 and 1880. This area is a pressure point on a trendline and also a dense-volume zone from a prior high. If the price can break through the descending trendline here, and then retest it to confirm it holds (does not break), there is a chance the price will continue upward to test further. For the resistance along the upper boundary of the channel, watch 1833–1848. This region is a strong short-term resistance zone; once price reaches it, focus on possible high-altitude/upper-range opportunities.

On the 4-hour timeframe, the small box has already completed its switch from top to bottom and back. The previous resistance level at 1757 has now turned into short-term support. Going forward, if price retraces to 1757 and stabilizes there, and the rebound continues, you can consider a small long entry. Targets: first look at 1783 and 1800, and then further at 1833.

Resistance above: 1783–1800; break above to see 1833–1850
Support below: 1757–1740; if it breaks below 1722

📌 Today’s bias: overall bullish—don’t chase. Buy on pullbacks to lower levels. If price spikes higher directly, watch for short-term high-altitude opportunities.
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Bearish
⭐  #BTC Today Market Update    On the daily chart, three consecutive bearish candles formed. Overall, it’s a weak consolidation range. The rebound has met resistance. Yesterday’s selloff first showed a top-pattern signal in the market structure, and second, the news that the Iran–Iraq conflict might not escalate further (the “freeze/breakthrough” headline) acted as a catalyst, driving further downside. After Bitcoin’s sharp drop to 61,544, it rebounded slightly, but the rebound strength is limited. It’s still hovering near the low area for now.    On the daily timeframe, the MA20 is currently around 61,786, basically in line with the current price. The short-term moving averages are flattening, and the downward trendline has not yet formed a valid breakout. Next, after a break below 61,780, price will likely seek lower support. That would mean the short-term rebound is nearing its end. However, the most critical level is 60,755. If price effectively falls back below that, the overall structure would complete the AMD scenario we mentioned earlier on the 7th, and the market would likely probe further lower. The rebound would only continue if there’s a breakout above the downward trendline with increased volume.    Resistance above: 62,500–63,600, with heavy resistance at 64,800  Support below: 61,500–61,000, with strong support at 60,755    Today’s plan: In the short term, expect a bearish range-bound move, but don’t chase shorts. Since price is quickly approaching a key support area, consider selling short on rebounds. Support below remains strong, and if there’s a pullback, you can lightly go long to gamble on a short-term move. $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT)
⭐ #BTC Today Market Update

On the daily chart, three consecutive bearish candles formed. Overall, it’s a weak consolidation range. The rebound has met resistance. Yesterday’s selloff first showed a top-pattern signal in the market structure, and second, the news that the Iran–Iraq conflict might not escalate further (the “freeze/breakthrough” headline) acted as a catalyst, driving further downside. After Bitcoin’s sharp drop to 61,544, it rebounded slightly, but the rebound strength is limited. It’s still hovering near the low area for now.

On the daily timeframe, the MA20 is currently around 61,786, basically in line with the current price. The short-term moving averages are flattening, and the downward trendline has not yet formed a valid breakout. Next, after a break below 61,780, price will likely seek lower support. That would mean the short-term rebound is nearing its end. However, the most critical level is 60,755. If price effectively falls back below that, the overall structure would complete the AMD scenario we mentioned earlier on the 7th, and the market would likely probe further lower. The rebound would only continue if there’s a breakout above the downward trendline with increased volume.

Resistance above: 62,500–63,600, with heavy resistance at 64,800
Support below: 61,500–61,000, with strong support at 60,755

Today’s plan: In the short term, expect a bearish range-bound move, but don’t chase shorts. Since price is quickly approaching a key support area, consider selling short on rebounds. Support below remains strong, and if there’s a pullback, you can lightly go long to gamble on a short-term move. $BTC
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Bearish
⭐ #ETH Today’s market update ETH is still consolidating in a rectangular range. After breaking the trendline, it faced rejection at the first high around 1845, and a top signal has appeared. Currently, it is pulling back to test the support below. It’s not ruled out that it may revisit the falling trendline during the pullback. However, based on the FVG and VAH, we can see that there is some short-term support around 1720, while stronger support is at 1678—this is the box’s midline. If this level holds, there is a chance for a rebound. The lower edge of the box is the final line of defense. Top resistance: 1770-1800 Bottom support: 1720-1678 Today’s plan: During the pullback, look for buy opportunities at support where buyers step in. Since Ethereum is high-liquidity and high-flexibility, it’s recommended to position lightly.
⭐ #ETH Today’s market update

ETH is still consolidating in a rectangular range. After breaking the trendline, it faced rejection at the first high around 1845, and a top signal has appeared. Currently, it is pulling back to test the support below. It’s not ruled out that it may revisit the falling trendline during the pullback. However, based on the FVG and VAH, we can see that there is some short-term support around 1720, while stronger support is at 1678—this is the box’s midline. If this level holds, there is a chance for a rebound. The lower edge of the box is the final line of defense.

Top resistance: 1770-1800
Bottom support: 1720-1678

Today’s plan: During the pullback, look for buy opportunities at support where buyers step in. Since Ethereum is high-liquidity and high-flexibility, it’s recommended to position lightly.
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Bullish
📱Li Er Community Data Tracking| #BTC ETF Capital Flows Turn Positive Based on the latest BTC ETF capital flows, on July 6, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $265.7 million. This marks another clear round of capital returning, following the net inflow of $223.5 million on July 2. The core driver of this inflow remains BlackRock’s IBIT, with a single-day net inflow of $209.4 million, accounting for the majority. Ark ARKB saw an inflow of $33.0 million, and Grayscale’s mini BTC fund saw an inflow of $42.3 million. In the short term, ETF flows turning positive is beneficial for market sentiment recovery, but it’s not suitable to chase prices blindly. Pay close attention to whether ETFs continue to post net inflows during the next BTC rebound. If capital keeps entering and the price pullback holds support without breaking, the rebound may continue. If the price rises but the flow momentum weakens, or if outflows expand, be cautious about a spike followed by a drop. $etf
📱Li Er Community Data Tracking| #BTC ETF Capital Flows Turn Positive

Based on the latest BTC ETF capital flows, on July 6, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $265.7 million. This marks another clear round of capital returning, following the net inflow of $223.5 million on July 2.

The core driver of this inflow remains BlackRock’s IBIT, with a single-day net inflow of $209.4 million, accounting for the majority. Ark ARKB saw an inflow of $33.0 million, and Grayscale’s mini BTC fund saw an inflow of $42.3 million. In the short term, ETF flows turning positive is beneficial for market sentiment recovery, but it’s not suitable to chase prices blindly.

Pay close attention to whether ETFs continue to post net inflows during the next BTC rebound. If capital keeps entering and the price pullback holds support without breaking, the rebound may continue. If the price rises but the flow momentum weakens, or if outflows expand, be cautious about a spike followed by a drop. $etf
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Bullish
⭐ #SOL Today’s market update The daily-level upward trend line has not yet been invalidated by a breakdown, and the volume structure still has room to rise. Currently, the overall price is consolidating in a high range. The key long/short dividing line is at 74.7–76. After this level is broken down, the market will once again attempt to bottom. On the 1-hour chart, it has tested the top twice. It is currently moving within a consolidation range. The key level overhead is 83.8, which also corresponds to the Fibonacci 0.618 level. Support is at 79.3, and it has also held there twice. As long as it has neither broken down nor broken up, range trading—buy low and sell high—can be used within the box. Resistance above: 83.7–87.9 Support below: 79.3–76 Today’s plan: On the 1-hour level, it’s doing box-range consolidation and is currently pulling back, so consider buying on dips. $SOL {future}(SOLUSDT)
⭐ #SOL Today’s market update

The daily-level upward trend line has not yet been invalidated by a breakdown, and the volume structure still has room to rise. Currently, the overall price is consolidating in a high range. The key long/short dividing line is at 74.7–76. After this level is broken down, the market will once again attempt to bottom.

On the 1-hour chart, it has tested the top twice. It is currently moving within a consolidation range. The key level overhead is 83.8, which also corresponds to the Fibonacci 0.618 level. Support is at 79.3, and it has also held there twice. As long as it has neither broken down nor broken up, range trading—buy low and sell high—can be used within the box.

Resistance above: 83.7–87.9
Support below: 79.3–76

Today’s plan: On the 1-hour level, it’s doing box-range consolidation and is currently pulling back, so consider buying on dips. $SOL
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Bullish
⭐ #BTC Today market update On the daily timeframe, it broke through the neckline level 61,900, and first received resistance from above—forming a double-bottom setup—and also closed above the Fibonacci 0.5 level at 62,500. The short-term rebound is continuing, with targets at 63,600. The double-bottom measured move points to 65,600, which aligns with the previous high. On the 4-hour timeframe, price is nearing the descending trendline. Going long requires waiting on the right side for a breakout above the descending trendline. The TD has already extended to 16, meaning the upward move is overheated and the market is likely entering the latter half of the current move. On the 1-hour timeframe, the uptrend line has been repeatedly validated as support. The short-term uptrend hasn’t been broken yet, but it is approaching a turning point. There is resistance overhead, and support below. Next, watch for the 1-hour to break below the trendline; after that, if the retest fails to hold, you can follow with a short position. Resistance levels: 62,800-63,600-65,600 Support levels: 61,900-61,300-60,750 Today’s plan: Turning-point node; it’s unclear whether bulls or bears will dominate. The volume/structure is currently more favorable to the upside. Pullbacks to support can be used to go long; for shorts, wait for the high and look for the better short entry. $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT)
⭐ #BTC Today market update

On the daily timeframe, it broke through the neckline level 61,900, and first received resistance from above—forming a double-bottom setup—and also closed above the Fibonacci 0.5 level at 62,500. The short-term rebound is continuing, with targets at 63,600. The double-bottom measured move points to 65,600, which aligns with the previous high.

On the 4-hour timeframe, price is nearing the descending trendline. Going long requires waiting on the right side for a breakout above the descending trendline. The TD has already extended to 16, meaning the upward move is overheated and the market is likely entering the latter half of the current move.

On the 1-hour timeframe, the uptrend line has been repeatedly validated as support. The short-term uptrend hasn’t been broken yet, but it is approaching a turning point. There is resistance overhead, and support below. Next, watch for the 1-hour to break below the trendline; after that, if the retest fails to hold, you can follow with a short position.

Resistance levels: 62,800-63,600-65,600
Support levels: 61,900-61,300-60,750

Today’s plan: Turning-point node; it’s unclear whether bulls or bears will dominate. The volume/structure is currently more favorable to the upside. Pullbacks to support can be used to go long; for shorts, wait for the high and look for the better short entry.
$BTC
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CIRCLE CEO fights back, COINBASE and 140+ FIRMS hit back at OUSD Jeremy Allaire said that the model behind Open USD is one he has already tried, but “ran into endless challenges.” OUSD plans to donate nearly all profits to partners, directly challenging USDC’s business model. Allaire said Circle will continue to support different products and infrastructure, “even if we may compete.” “We also don’t plan to slow down. $ousd
CIRCLE CEO fights back, COINBASE and 140+ FIRMS hit back at OUSD
Jeremy Allaire said that the model behind Open USD is one he has already tried, but “ran into endless challenges.” OUSD plans to donate nearly all profits to partners, directly challenging USDC’s business model.
Allaire said Circle will continue to support different products and infrastructure, “even if we may compete.”
“We also don’t plan to slow down. $ousd
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BIG:Open standards announced the opening of the U.S. dollar $OUSD, a stablecoin supported by 140+ partners including Visa, Stripe, Mastercard, BlackRock, Google, and Coinbase. $ousd
BIG:Open standards announced the opening of the U.S. dollar $OUSD, a stablecoin supported by 140+ partners including Visa, Stripe, Mastercard, BlackRock, Google, and Coinbase. $ousd
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Bullish
⭐ #HYPE Today’s Market Update At the daily (line) level, HYPE is in a high-position wedge-shaped consolidation. The daily moving averages are still in a bullish alignment, and the MACD shows signs of gradually shortening. The short-term chart still has rebound momentum. Overall, the daily timeframe is trading within a converging range. Although yesterday’s rebound volume decreased, it has formed two consecutive bottom signals, so shorting still needs caution. On the 4-hour chart, price has moved within an upward channel. The main overhead resistance lies at 67.7 and 69.5. If it breaks through, there’s a good chance it will test 74 and the previous high. If it breaks down, it will likely continue to retrace to find support in the lower channel at 63.1–64.2. Overhead resistance: 67.7–69.5 Support: 64.2–63.1 Today’s plan: Slightly bullish. But at the current level, the risk-reward ratio isn’t very favorable. It’s recommended to wait and watch for a pullback and stabilization before entering. If there is a breakdown with increased volume, then wait for the retracement to fail at the wedge resistance before considering a short.$HYPE {future}(HYPEUSDT)
⭐ #HYPE Today’s Market Update

At the daily (line) level, HYPE is in a high-position wedge-shaped consolidation. The daily moving averages are still in a bullish alignment, and the MACD shows signs of gradually shortening. The short-term chart still has rebound momentum. Overall, the daily timeframe is trading within a converging range. Although yesterday’s rebound volume decreased, it has formed two consecutive bottom signals, so shorting still needs caution.

On the 4-hour chart, price has moved within an upward channel. The main overhead resistance lies at 67.7 and 69.5. If it breaks through, there’s a good chance it will test 74 and the previous high. If it breaks down, it will likely continue to retrace to find support in the lower channel at 63.1–64.2.

Overhead resistance: 67.7–69.5
Support: 64.2–63.1

Today’s plan: Slightly bullish. But at the current level, the risk-reward ratio isn’t very favorable. It’s recommended to wait and watch for a pullback and stabilization before entering. If there is a breakdown with increased volume, then wait for the retracement to fail at the wedge resistance before considering a short.$HYPE
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Bearish
$BTC The market has faced a brutal sell-off, with prices hitting a nearly two-month low, dropping below $68,000. Over $1 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours, spreading panic across the market. Key info includes: 1. Institutional sell-offs and capital outflows have intensified the downtrend, with Abraxas Capital transferring 1,000 BTC to Kraken and withdrawing stablecoins during the downturn. Mt. Gox-related addresses sent out 10,300 BTC, and the negative premium on Coinbase BTC continues to widen, indicating weak buying interest in the U.S.; 2. Regulatory pressures are increasing, with Senators Sanders and Warren pushing the Labor Department to withdraw the proposal allowing cryptocurrency in 401(k) retirement plans; 3. Institutional actions are diverging, Strive added 2,500 BTC while Michael Saylor's Strategy fund reduced its holdings. Standard Chartered noted this might signal Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin; 4. Risk events are frequent, with Garrett Jin's 1,268 BTC long position showing an unrealized loss of over $11.5 million, and crypto stocks like MSTR and COIN plummeting, leading to an overall market evaporation of $176 billion. {future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC The market has faced a brutal sell-off, with prices hitting a nearly two-month low, dropping below $68,000. Over $1 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours, spreading panic across the market.
Key info includes:
1. Institutional sell-offs and capital outflows have intensified the downtrend, with Abraxas Capital transferring 1,000 BTC to Kraken and withdrawing stablecoins during the downturn. Mt. Gox-related addresses sent out 10,300 BTC, and the negative premium on Coinbase BTC continues to widen, indicating weak buying interest in the U.S.;
2. Regulatory pressures are increasing, with Senators Sanders and Warren pushing the Labor Department to withdraw the proposal allowing cryptocurrency in 401(k) retirement plans;
3. Institutional actions are diverging, Strive added 2,500 BTC while Michael Saylor's Strategy fund reduced its holdings. Standard Chartered noted this might signal Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin;
4. Risk events are frequent, with Garrett Jin's 1,268 BTC long position showing an unrealized loss of over $11.5 million, and crypto stocks like MSTR and COIN plummeting, leading to an overall market evaporation of $176 billion.
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[$BTC Daily Trend Analysis] The purple line above represents the 200-day moving average (MA), while the red line below indicates the 50-day MA. The last major trend reversal from bear to bull occurred when the 50-day MA crossed above the 200-day MA, with the slope of the 200-day MA gradually turning upwards. After a consolidation phase of 249 days, we finally entered a true bull market. Looking at the current 200-day MA, its slope is still sharply angled downwards, and the distance between the 50-day MA and the 200-day MA is quite significant, indicating substantial resistance from the 200-day MA. There’s still a long way to go before we see a bull market transition. Trend lines also show that we've broken out of a small ascending triangle. Based on resistance/support levels and Fibonacci retracements, we might see a pullback between 79700-80600. If we can't break and hold above 80600, we may continue to see a downtrend. First wave of downside rebound target: around 78220, which is a strong support level. Second wave of downside feedback target: around 77600, where support strength is even greater.
[$BTC Daily Trend Analysis]
The purple line above represents the 200-day moving average (MA), while the red line below indicates the 50-day MA.
The last major trend reversal from bear to bull occurred when the 50-day MA crossed above the 200-day MA, with the slope of the 200-day MA gradually turning upwards. After a consolidation phase of 249 days, we finally entered a true bull market.
Looking at the current 200-day MA, its slope is still sharply angled downwards, and the distance between the 50-day MA and the 200-day MA is quite significant, indicating substantial resistance from the 200-day MA. There’s still a long way to go before we see a bull market transition.
Trend lines also show that we've broken out of a small ascending triangle. Based on resistance/support levels and Fibonacci retracements, we might see a pullback between 79700-80600. If we can't break and hold above 80600, we may continue to see a downtrend.
First wave of downside rebound target: around 78220, which is a strong support level.
Second wave of downside feedback target: around 77600, where support strength is even greater.
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Bitcoin is about to face a major market shift! High probability of a significant drop![$BTC monthly analysis] Currently, the monthly chart is showing a clear upward channel. Point D has reached the 61.8% retracement level of the upward AB move, marking a critical retracement point, suggesting that the bullish momentum from the previous rise is nearly exhausted. Meanwhile, the current candlestick is approaching the nearly 38.2% retracement level of the downward BD move, and the 61.8% retracement level of the CD segment. For those playing the long game, keep an eye on these retracement levels for any potential topping patterns. btc monthly chart The Bollinger Bands are starting to tighten, indicating that the recent price action will see a compressed range. The middle band is heavily overlapping with the 50% retracement level of the BD, which presents a significant resistance.

Bitcoin is about to face a major market shift! High probability of a significant drop!

[$BTC monthly analysis]
Currently, the monthly chart is showing a clear upward channel. Point D has reached the 61.8% retracement level of the upward AB move, marking a critical retracement point, suggesting that the bullish momentum from the previous rise is nearly exhausted. Meanwhile, the current candlestick is approaching the nearly 38.2% retracement level of the downward BD move, and the 61.8% retracement level of the CD segment. For those playing the long game, keep an eye on these retracement levels for any potential topping patterns.
btc monthly chart
The Bollinger Bands are starting to tighten, indicating that the recent price action will see a compressed range. The middle band is heavily overlapping with the 50% retracement level of the BD, which presents a significant resistance.
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【If you get the chance to hit up Hong Kong, these two things are a must】 1. Grab a Hong Kong SIM card Head to Watsons and pick up a prepaid card for 33 HKD. Once you've got it, you can use it globally, and I can vouch that this brand is the cheapest and most convenient. You can use this number to register for various accounts, like an Apple HK account or different apps, and you can top up this number to pay for those apps. However, many foreign apps have a hard time sending verification texts to mainland numbers, but this one can receive them all. There’s a downside though; it can be a bit laggy in remote areas. 2. Open a Hong Kong bank account Having a Hong Kong bank account is super useful. I recommend heading to Bank of China in Hong Kong, book an appointment online in advance, and choose a less crowded branch for a quicker and easier process. The biggest perk of a HK card: No restrictions on foreign exchange, so you can use it for cross-border investments, like playing in the US stock market or dealing with Hong Kong stocks. Different cards offer different discounts in various regions, making it definitely worth having one or two. Just make sure to top it up regularly and avoid quick in-and-out transactions to keep it maintained.
【If you get the chance to hit up Hong Kong, these two things are a must】

1. Grab a Hong Kong SIM card

Head to Watsons and pick up a prepaid card for 33 HKD. Once you've got it, you can use it globally, and I can vouch that this brand is the cheapest and most convenient.

You can use this number to register for various accounts, like an Apple HK account or different apps, and you can top up this number to pay for those apps.

However, many foreign apps have a hard time sending verification texts to mainland numbers, but this one can receive them all. There’s a downside though; it can be a bit laggy in remote areas.

2. Open a Hong Kong bank account

Having a Hong Kong bank account is super useful. I recommend heading to Bank of China in Hong Kong, book an appointment online in advance, and choose a less crowded branch for a quicker and easier process.

The biggest perk of a HK card:
No restrictions on foreign exchange, so you can use it for cross-border investments, like playing in the US stock market or dealing with Hong Kong stocks. Different cards offer different discounts in various regions, making it definitely worth having one or two. Just make sure to top it up regularly and avoid quick in-and-out transactions to keep it maintained.
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Bullish
$BTC Hourly Analysis, Bullish Looking at the candlestick patterns, it's clear that the downward momentum has pretty much run its course. The 79038 level is marked as a strong support zone. It might get touched or it might not, but either way, a bounce back is on the cards. At the same time, the daily Vegas channel (red area) is a solid support, while the green represents the hourly Vegas channel. Verified by the MACD, it's too far from the zero line; even a false breakout will likely bounce back at the support level. First take profit target is 80600, which represents a 38.2% retracement of this drop, pretty safe. Second take profit target is 81400, marking a 61.8% retracement, also the previous high before the drop. Third take profit target is 82480, near a pressure level. If you're feeling bold, consider 83170, which is near a strong resistance level.
$BTC Hourly Analysis, Bullish
Looking at the candlestick patterns, it's clear that the downward momentum has pretty much run its course.
The 79038 level is marked as a strong support zone.
It might get touched or it might not, but either way, a bounce back is on the cards.

At the same time, the daily Vegas channel (red area) is a solid support, while the green represents the hourly Vegas channel. Verified by the MACD, it's too far from the zero line; even a false breakout will likely bounce back at the support level.

First take profit target is 80600, which represents a 38.2% retracement of this drop, pretty safe.
Second take profit target is 81400, marking a 61.8% retracement, also the previous high before the drop.
Third take profit target is 82480, near a pressure level.
If you're feeling bold, consider 83170, which is near a strong resistance level.
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$BTC 【Daily and Hourly Chart Comparison】 On the left is yesterday's daily candle, and on the right is yesterday's hourly candle. Candlesticks are truly fascinating; you'll notice that the actual drop is roughly reflected in the body, while the pullbacks and rebounds are captured in the wicks. If we apply Fibonacci retracement from the high to the low, the bottom right shows a retracement back to 38.2%. Therefore, for the next day, the bearish entry point is something you need to jump on quickly, as this small wave of decline has already completed its retracement.
$BTC 【Daily and Hourly Chart Comparison】
On the left is yesterday's daily candle, and on the right is yesterday's hourly candle.
Candlesticks are truly fascinating; you'll notice that the actual drop is roughly reflected in the body, while the pullbacks and rebounds are captured in the wicks.
If we apply Fibonacci retracement from the high to the low, the bottom right shows a retracement back to 38.2%. Therefore, for the next day, the bearish entry point is something you need to jump on quickly, as this small wave of decline has already completed its retracement.
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