蛋挞7x

$EPIC rose from 0.2606 at 9 p.m. last night to around 0.30 now, a gain of 15%. But that 15% was driven by two completely different groups of money, and the second wave was less solid than the first.

In the first half, from last night to this morning, the price briefly surged to 0.3143. Yet Binance futures open interest, measured in coins, fell from 13.06 million to 12.27 million by 8 a.m., down 6%. Price up, open interest down: shorts were closing their positions and buying back, with spot buying adding support, while no one was opening new longs. A rally driven by short covering stops when the fuel runs out, but it also doesn’t leave behind a pile of longs looking to get out.

The second half began at 11 a.m. today, when the price climbed from 0.273 to 0.300. In just three hours, open interest rose from 12.43 million to 13.25 million, up 6.6%. The long-to-short ratio by account jumped from 54.4% to 58.2% during the 2 p.m. hour; meanwhile, among the largest holders with the heaviest positions, the share of longs actually fell from 71.8% to 70.9%. Most of the newly added leverage is retail traders chasing the rally, while large holders are selling into it. The average futures trading price over those three hours was 0.293, so the new longs’ cost basis is clustered around that level. If the price falls back below 0.29, these traders will be the first forced to stop out, amplifying the drop themselves.

One correction while I’m at it: last night I thought 0.239 would be tested again, but the subsequent low was only 0.2535. I got the direction wrong.

As for levels, the 4-hour Bollinger upper band is at 0.319, and the 4-hour EMA50 is at 0.331. Both sit right above this morning’s 0.3143 and the October 17 high of 0.3308. The 1-hour KDJ J-value has reached 98.9, so the short-term market is overheated. However, the funding rate has only risen from a suppressed 0.005% to 0.031%, still well below the 0.107% seen when the rally peaked after a chase on October 17. Open interest is also lower than the 15.39 million coins recorded then, so I’m in no hurry to turn bearish.

I believe this rebound is real, but the second leg is weaker than the first. The 0.314–0.319 zone will probably act as the first resistance. A pullback to 0.275–0.282, where the 1-hour EMA12, EMA26, and EMA50 are clustered, would be healthy if the price holds there. If open interest pushes past 14 million coins and the price holds above 0.331 while the funding rate stays below 0.05%, I’ll admit the trend has reversed. I’m still flat on EPIC, and I won’t short it against the trend this time either.

Personal opinion

#EPIC #Futures open interest

$Q hit a new intraday high of 0.1666 at noon, but Binance futures open interest measured in tokens has fallen to just 329 million, down 45% from 602 million on the morning of October 17—almost back to the 320 million level before the rally began on October 13. The value of open interest has risen from $9.68 million then to $49 million, almost entirely because of the price increase; the token count is up by less than 4%.

This is a different setup from yesterday’s surge. Before the price spiked to 0.1529 at 10 a.m. yesterday, open interest had just started retreating from 580 million. The funding rate settled at -0.12%, -0.21%, and -0.21% in three consecutive intervals, meaning shorts were paying every four hours—a classic short squeeze. Once the fuel ran out, the price plunged to a low of 0.0870 at 6 p.m., a 43% pullback in eight hours.

Today’s structure is much cleaner. The funding rate is back to +0.005%, and the mark price of 0.1596 is almost exactly in line with the index price of 0.1600. Futures aren’t leading the rally; the price is being pulled up by the external spot index. The leverage added during those days of buying has already been flushed out, and the new high has been reached with lighter positioning, leaving much less fuel for a cascade of liquidations on the way down.

The other side is more puzzling. By account, the long ratio stayed below 35% for 107 hours over the six days starting October 14, and it is only 32% now—seven out of ten accounts are short. By position size, however, large traders’ long positions account for around 51%. Short positions are spread across a large number of small accounts, and to cut their losses they’ll have to buy back at higher prices.

Technically, the 4-hour price is above the upper Keltner Channel at 0.1505, and the MACD histogram has expanded again from 0.0024 to 0.0047. The trade-off is a 4-hour ATR of 0.0202, so a 12% swing in a single candle is quite normal.

My view is that the 0.1505–0.1529 zone will turn from resistance into support, and 0.1666 will most likely be tested again. This time, the high is on firmer footing than yesterday’s. If open interest surges back above 450 million and the funding rate drops below -0.1% again, then we’ll be back to yesterday’s short-squeeze scenario, and I’ll change my view. I don’t hold any Q. Yesterday’s intraday high-to-low move was over 70%, so with volatility like that, I’m just observing, not placing trades.

#Q #Futures Open Interest

Personal opinion

$AMP 24 hours, up 14.6%, but what’s really different this time isn’t the gain—it’s that it hasn’t fallen back after hitting the top.

From September 27 to today, AMP has surged into the 0.00083–0.000869 range five times: 9/27, 10/9, 10/14, 10/17, and again at 4 a.m. this morning, reaching 0.000844. The first four times followed almost the exact same script: after peaking, it gave back 9% to 20% by the six-hour close. The worst was on 10/9, when it plunged as much as 28% within six hours.

By 10 a.m. today, exactly six hours after the high, it was still at 0.000815 at the close, down just 3.4%. The intraday low was 0.000758, right at the daily EMA200 (0.000758), where it found support.

There’s another trend underneath. The lows in the 24 hours before each of the five surges were 0.000500, 0.000566, 0.000618, 0.000652, and 0.000700—higher each time. The same ceiling is overhead, while the level where buyers step in keeps moving up. That suggests that each time the price gets knocked down, buyers are catching it at a higher level, leaving sellers with less and less room to push it back down.

The part I’m least sure about is trading volume. On the daily candles corresponding to the five surges, spot trading volume fell from 16.1 million U on September 26 to 5.47 million U on October 18, declining each time. But in the 24 hours before the surge, the share of aggressive buy orders rose from 51.3% the first time to 53.9% this time. Volume is shrinking, but buyers are becoming more aggressive. I’m more inclined to read that as selling pressure thinning out, rather than a lack of demand.

One more thing: AMP isn’t listed in Binance’s USDT-margined futures, so this is a pure spot market with no short covering to fuel a rally. The move up is backed by real buy orders. The 4-hour RSI is at 70.8, and the 4-hour ATR is 0.000054, so a normal candle move is already 6.6%. A few swings around 0.0008 don’t tell us much.

This time, I’m siding with a breakout. It’s held after a surge—a feat it failed to manage the previous four times. I think it’s quite likely to retest 0.000869, its high since September. If the hourly chart drops back below 0.00075, then it’s the same old script, and I’ll accept that my call was wrong. I don’t hold any AMP, and I won’t make a move before it holds above 0.000870.

Personal opinion log #AMP

$A (formerly EOS) fell from 0.1162 on October 17 to 0.0860 this morning, a drop of 26%, while Binance futures open interest grew by 20% in the final nine hours: from 43.12 million tokens at 10 p.m. last night to 52.36 million at 7 a.m. today.

Some background first. From noon to 7 p.m. on October 17, open interest surged from 34.28 million tokens to 53.13 million. Those piling in during that move were longs. Over the next day or so, the price pulled back and open interest fell to 43.12 million, flushing out some of those longs. After 10 p.m. last night, it was shorts who started entering. Futures trading volume over the past 24 hours was $22.86 million, versus just $3.32 million in spot—about seven times as much. This drop was driven mainly by futures.

Who’s adding to their positions this time? The account-based long ratio fell from 63.5% to 42.8% by 9 a.m. today, its lowest since data began on September 28. In the past 500 hours, it has been below 50% only during these six hours today. The long share of positions held by the largest traders fell from 65% to around 58%. They trimmed their longs a little, but longs still have the upper hand. Put simply, a large number of small accounts are chasing shorts at these low prices.

These new short positions piled up between 0.0950 and 0.0860. Weighted by futures trading volume over those nine hours, their average entry price was about 0.0896. The current price is 0.0906, so they’re already out of profit. If the price rises, they’ll have to buy back to close their positions—that’s the fuel for a rebound. The funding rate bottomed out at just -0.019%, so it’s cheap for shorts to hold their positions. Funding costs won’t force them out; only the price can.

Technically, the low of 0.0860 coincides with the daily EMA200 (0.0865). On the 4-hour chart, the KDJ J-value hit 1.1, with K at 15.2 and D at 22.2; the 4-hour RSI is 37.9. There’s only one comparable instance in the past three weeks: at 5 p.m. on October 16, the long ratio fell to 52.4%, after which the price rose as much as 16% over the next 24 hours. That’s just one data point, so I’m treating it as a reference only.

My view is that 0.0860 was where retail short positions were most crowded. Next, we’ll likely see a round of short covering, with 0.0950 as the first target—the level where this batch of shorts started piling in. If the daily candle closes below 0.0861, I’ll take back this view; the next level to watch is around 0.078, near September 18. I have no position in $A and won’t act unless it gets back above the daily EMA50 at 0.0920.

#合约数据 #Altcoins

$GTC Short positions in the perpetuals have paid funding 11 times since 4 p.m. the day before yesterday, totaling 6.4%, and the price has still risen 11.6%. By conventional wisdom, they should have been squeezed out by now, yet open interest in the perpetuals has actually climbed from 27.32 million tokens to 30.8 million.

A little after 9 a.m. yesterday, I wrote about GTC, judging that a pullback to 0.2187 was more likely than a breakout above 0.2642, because shorts willing to pay such a high funding rate were probably hedged. Two hours later, the perpetuals surged past 0.2642, and at 5 a.m. today the price hit a high of 0.2897. I was wrong. My invalidation condition was a drop in open interest below 24 million tokens. Instead, open interest kept rising and the price kept rising too—the condition itself was poorly chosen.

Here’s how the money is flowing: the perpetuals are now trading 1.8% below the index. Binance spot volume is only around 500,000 USDT an hour, while perpetuals volume is roughly ten times that. Shorts have been pressing the price down on the perpetuals, but spot buying is pulling the index up. The gap isn’t closing, so shorts have to pay every four hours. The account-based long ratio has risen from 56.2% to 60.0%, while large traders’ position-based long ratio has stayed around 51%. More of the short exposure is concentrated among a small number of large accounts.

These shorts are being forced to choose: if they don’t close, at today’s pace of three funding settlements, they’ll pay over 2% in a day; if they do close, they’ll have to buy back on the perpetuals—that’s what would really fuel a short squeeze. Open interest is still rising, which suggests they haven’t started to capitulate.

GTC itself had a very similar stretch: from 4 p.m. on October 2 to 8 a.m. on October 5, the funding rate was negative for nine settlements in a row, totaling 4.94%. The price rose from 0.129 to 0.175, then surged to 0.2488 on the 5th. By 8 a.m. on the 6th, the funding rate had recovered to -0.087%, and the daily candle fell 20.7%. But after the -2% reading at midnight on October 13, the price dropped 20% in just nine hours, so this is no hard-and-fast rule.

Technically, the daily upper Bollinger Band is at 0.2882. That 0.2897 spike overnight briefly pierced it before pulling back. The 4-hour RSI is 65.7, not yet overbought, and the 4-hour ATR is 0.0229. The lows over the past two days—0.2402, 0.2455, and 0.2537—have each been higher than the last.

This time, I’m not going to bet against it by calling a top. As long as the funding rate remains below -0.2% every four hours, 0.2897 will probably be tested again. If the rate recovers to within -0.05%, or a 4-hour candle closes below 0.2537, I’ll consider this move over. I’m still flat on GTC.

#GTC #FundingRate

Over $PYTH 24 hours, it has fallen 12.9%. On Binance Futures, the account-based long ratio has slid from 66.6% in the early hours of yesterday to 51.8% at 21:00 tonight, its lowest level in three weeks. Measured from the October 15 high of 0.1009, the price has retraced 27%, giving back the entire breakout. This time, retail traders haven’t been buying the dip—they’ve flipped short along with the market.

Measured in coins, open interest stood at 168.7 million when the price surged to around 0.094 on the afternoon of October 16. It’s now 137.3 million, down nearly 20%. The positions added during this breakout have basically been unwound, bringing open interest back to where it was before the rally began on October 12. The large-trader long-position ratio, measured by open interest, has stayed around 62% with hardly any movement. Funding rates have remained within ±0.005% over the past few days; tonight’s rate is -0.003%. This drop wasn’t caused by high-funding longs being squeezed out.

I reviewed the hourly data going back to September 28. The retail long ratio has fallen below 55% three times: October 2, October 8, and October 12. At the hourly low on each occasion, open interest was between 136.5 million and 137.5 million coins—almost exactly where it is now. In the 72 hours that followed, the closing price rose 4.8%, 10.7%, and 10.2%, respectively, and at no point during those periods did it fall more than 3.3% below the close at that hour. It’s only a three-instance sample, but the setup looks very similar.

The logic is straightforward: leveraged longs have already been flushed back to core positions, so there aren’t many longs left to liquidate, while short positions are continuing to build. To push the price lower from here, the market would need fresh spot selling—not forced liquidations.

On the indicators, the 1-hour RSI(14) is just 25.6. The 4-hour Bollinger lower band is at 0.0733, and tonight’s low of 0.0735 came very close to it. The 4-hour EMA200 is at 0.0746 and has just been breached. If the price can’t reclaim that level, any rebound is unlikely to go far.

At this level, I don’t see much downside; 0.0733 to 0.0703 looks like the floor for this shakeout. I’d look for an initial rebound toward 0.0790–0.0800. If the daily candle closes below the October 7 low of 0.0703, the pattern from the previous three instances will no longer hold. The next level to watch would be 0.060, from September 23—and at that point, I’d accept that this time is different. I don’t hold any PYTH, and I’m not going to chase shorts right now.

#PYTH #Retail sentiment

$EPIC spot fell 13% today, from 0.30 to 0.26. The wave of futures longs that surged in yesterday when the price hit 0.335 cut their holdings by coin count from 15.39 million to 13.06 million, a drop of 15%. But among the largest accounts with the heaviest positions on Binance Futures, the share of long positions actually rose from 65.4% last night to 69.8%.

Prices are falling and total positions are shrinking, yet large traders are adding longs—the opposite of what retail accounts are doing. By account count, the long-position ratio fell from around 55% to about 52% today, and is now at 53%. Put simply, the longs that got shaken out were mainly retail traders who chased yesterday’s rally, while large traders are stepping in now. Futures volume today was about $38.4 million, compared with only about $5.3 million in spot trading—a sevenfold difference. Leverage trading is still driving the market.

Funding rates have also returned to normal. They settled at +0.107% at 16:00 yesterday and even reached +0.114% at 04:00 this morning, before steadily falling back to +0.005%. Longs no longer have to pay hefty daily holding costs, but those who chased the rally have already closed their positions. What remains are long positions that large traders are gradually building up.

Looking back at my post yesterday at 17:00, I wrote that this bullish candle was driven by futures traders chasing the rally, and that the price would retest 0.251–0.254. If that level failed to hold, it could return to 0.218. Today’s low was 0.239: the price broke below 0.251 but has not reached 0.218. The direction was right, but the move has only gone halfway. At the time, I said I’d change my view only if the 4-hour candle closed above 0.307 and the funding rate returned to within +0.01%. Neither has happened so far.

On the indicators, the 1-hour EMA12 is at 0.262 and the EMA26 at 0.268, with the price below both moving averages. The 1-hour Bollinger midline is at 0.270, and the lower band at 0.242 is just supporting the area around today’s low. The 1-hour ATR14 is 0.015, so another ATR move down from 0.260 would put the price at 0.245. The 4-hour Keltner lower band is at 0.211, coinciding with the October 16 low of 0.211.

My view is that yesterday’s rally-chasing has failed. The 0.239 area will most likely be tested again; if it fails to hold, the price could fall to 0.218–0.211. I don’t take large traders increasing their long-position share from 65% back to 70% as a sign of a bottom. It looks more like the kind of structure we saw on October 16, when they added longs as the price fell. I’ll reconsider if the 4-hour candle closes back above 0.280 and open interest starts rising again at the same time. I’m still flat on EPIC—not buying or shorting.

#EPIC #Futures Open Interest

$HBAR is up 7.6% today, reaching 0.0898. I went through its contract data from the past three weeks. The same pattern of gains has appeared three times, and in every case the price was lower three days later.

First, today’s setup. From 2 p.m. to 8 p.m., contract open interest, measured in coins, rose from 444 million to 474 million, up 6.7%. Over the same period, the long share of the biggest position holders fell from 75.2% to 72.3%, while the percentage of accounts holding longs actually rose from 53.5% to 56.9%. The new longs are mainly coming from retail accounts, while large holders are selling into them. Contract volume over those six hours was about $36.4 million, versus only about $10 million in spot volume—a 3.7-to-1 difference. The average contract trading price over those six hours was 0.0880, so most of the new long positions have entry costs around that level. If the price falls back below it, their stop-losses could become the next wave of selling.

That drop in large holders’ long share is unusual. Since October, it has stayed between 71.6% and 77.6% even as the price fell from 0.104 to 0.080. They barely reduced their positions during that decline, but today it took just a few hours to return to the bottom of that range.

The backtest used 500 hours of Binance data. The criteria were a gain of more than 2% over six hours, an increase in open interest of more than 2%, and a drop of more than one percentage point in large holders’ long share. The pattern occurred on September 28, September 30, and October 8. After 24 hours, the returns were +9.6%, +1.6%, and -3.9%, respectively—mixed results. After 72 hours, they were -2.2%, -3.1%, and -3.9%, all negative. The sample is only three cases, so I treat it as a reference point, nothing more.

Technically, the daily EMA26 is at 0.0904 and the 4-hour EMA200 is at 0.0900, with both lines overhead. The 4-hour candle has already closed above the upper Bollinger Band at 0.0889. The daily ATR is 0.0060, so a one-ATR pullback would put the price around 0.0838.

Structurally, 0.0894 to 0.0904 is the area of the October 9 daily low and the level breached by the October 12 bearish candle. It has now turned into resistance. Below that, the first level to watch is 0.0856, where today’s afternoon rally began, followed by today’s low at 0.0849.

My view is that this move has been driven by retail traders chasing longs in the contracts. It will be difficult for the price to hold above the 0.0900–0.0904 zone tonight, and a return to around 0.0856 within three days looks more likely. I’ll reconsider if a 4-hour candle closes above 0.0904 and large holders’ long share climbs back above 75%. I don’t hold any HBAR, and I’m neither chasing this move nor shorting it.

#HBAR #Large-holder positions

$STRK Yesterday morning, at 0.0720, I said I was siding with the whales for a short-term trade. At 8 p.m., one hourly candle slammed through 0.0716 and hit a low of 0.0654. My stop-loss, placed below the three previous lows, was triggered on the spot. Today it fell to a new low of 0.0622, down by more than half from the October 11 high of 0.1265.

Let me be clear about where I got it wrong: I interpreted “price falling, open interest rising, and whales’ long position share holding steady” as whales putting in a floor. Whales are accumulating tokens, not supporting the price—and after they accumulate, the price can still get smashed through. During yesterday’s 8 p.m. hour, 177 million tokens were aggressively sold in futures, while only 121 million were aggressively bought. Open interest fell from 411 million tokens to 382 million by 3 a.m. today, a 7% drop. That was longs getting stopped out in droves.

Today’s picture has almost repeated itself exactly. Futures open interest, measured in tokens, rose from 382 million at 3 a.m. to 430 million at 5 p.m.—up 12.6% in 14 hours—while the price moved from 0.0654 to the current 0.0629. Whales’ long share has stayed stuck between 65.6% and 65.7%, while the share of accounts across the market taking long positions fell from 51.0% to 48.9%. The funding rate is still at the default positive 0.005%, so shorts haven’t paid a cent more.

Put simply, whales are still adding to their longs as the price falls. The 48 million tokens added today were mostly bought at prices between 0.062 and 0.066. If 0.0622 gives way, all those longs will be underwater, and their stop-loss orders will become ready-made sell orders. We could see a repeat of what happened at 8 p.m. last night.

Technically, daily closes have stayed above the EMA26 since October 5. That line is at 0.0637 today, and the current price has already slipped below it. The 4-hour KDJ J-value is just 4.4, so the market is indeed oversold in the short term. That’s why I won’t chase shorts here. The 4-hour Bollinger lower band is at 0.0564.

My view is that this rise in open interest doesn’t count as support. 0.0622 will probably be tested again; if it breaks, the first level to watch is 0.0600, followed by 0.0564. I’ll only admit these longs have held up if the 4-hour candle closes back above 0.0660 and open interest hasn’t fallen. I’m currently flat STRK. I’ve accepted yesterday’s small loss.

#STRK #FuturesOpenInterest

$ERA surged to 0.0800 this afternoon, 10% above yesterday’s high of 0.0727. But the more sharply it rises, the more new short positions are opened on Binance Futures.

During the 16:00 hour, futures open interest grew from 96.3 million tokens to 107.8 million, up 12% in an hour. Over the same hour, the share of accounts holding longs fell from 59.8% to 56.3%—most of the new arrivals were retail shorts. The biggest position holders are doing the opposite: their long share rose from 54.4% at 08:00 to 57.7%. In the 15:00 candle, which gained 8%, aggressive sell orders still slightly outnumbered aggressive buy orders; buyers were passively placing bids below.

The shorts are paying the price. ERA funding is settled hourly, and all 17 settlements today have been negative, totaling 2.58%. Since the -2% settlement at 20:00 last night, shorts have paid 5.75% altogether. With the price not falling, short positions incur a charge every hour they’re held. Those who can’t take it have to buy back at market, and those buybacks push the price higher.

Technically, the 4-hour Keltner upper band at 0.0733 has been left behind. The 1-hour KDJ J-value is 85, not yet at an extreme level; the 1-hour ATR is 0.0033, so a 4% move up or down in one candle is quite normal. The daily EMAs 12, 26, and 50 are clustered between 0.0654 and 0.0662—that zone is the foundation of this entire move.

What makes me uneasy is the volume profile: at 15:00, futures volume was $17.8 million, while spot volume was only $1.9 million. 90% of the volume was in futures. Once short covering ends, the price could easily spike and then fall back, as it did on October 11.

Yesterday I said that if 0.0655 held, we could try for 0.0727 again; a close below it would mean buyers had pulled out and shorts had been right to pay that 2%. Instead, the 1-hour candle closed at 0.0650 at 22:00, and the overnight low was 0.0614. By my own criteria, the shorts should have won—but today the price went straight to 0.08, and shorts paid another 3.75%. I drew the right line but reached the wrong conclusion.

This time, I think shorts may have to pay another round of tuition: as long as 0.0727 holds and funding stays below -0.1% per hour, there’s probably a second push above 0.08. If funding returns to around zero but the price stops moving, the fuel has run out. I’m still flat on ERA.

#ERA #Funding Rate

$FIL Over 24 hours, it fell 9.8%. But from September 24 to today, its daily closes have stayed between 0.99 and 1.23 without breaking out once.

Since October, it has dipped below 1.00 three times: 0.98 on October 3, 0.9858 on October 9, and 0.9999 on October 15. Each time, it later bounced above 1.20. The ceiling has been just as firm: on October 11, it surged to 1.2764 intraday but closed at 1.2287, less than a cent away from the 1.2296 high on September 26.

The biggest difference between today and October 15 is positioning. Around the time it dipped to 0.9999 that night, Binance futures top traders had a 68.75% long position ratio, 63.4% of retail accounts were long, and open interest stood at 49.82 million tokens. Now the price is 1.0546, with top traders at 68.3% and retail at 63.5%—almost identical figures—while open interest is 52.91 million tokens, up about 3.1 million. Crowding hasn’t eased; there are actually more positions. That suggests the flush of longs at the bottom hasn’t happened yet, and the rebound lacks fuel until bulls are forced out.

Yesterday’s midday rally also tells us something. On October 17, between 12 p.m. and 1 p.m., the price jumped from 1.157 to 1.2236, while open interest increased by 1.81 million tokens in that hour—new longs chasing the move. Open interest has now fallen back below the 54.57 million tokens it stood at before the rally. Most of those late buyers have basically left; what remains are longs that entered earlier and have held on throughout.

As for indicators, today at 1 p.m. the price bottomed at 1.04, right on the 4-hour EMA200 (1.0408). The 4-hour RSI is 38.6, still some way from oversold. At noon and 1 p.m., the futures taker buy/sell ratios were just 0.48 and 0.61, meaning sellers were aggressively hitting the market. Further down, the daily EMA50 is at 0.995, coinciding with the bottom of the range. The daily ATR14 is 0.1125, and the range is only about two ATRs wide, so moving through half the range in a day is perfectly normal.

When it surged to 1.19 on October 6, I wrote that a pullback was more likely and set 1.144 as the first target. The next day, it bottomed at 1.0185. The direction was right, but the drop went deeper than I expected. This time, I’m still looking at it as a range.

My view is that if 1.04 doesn’t hold, the price will head toward 1.00 to flush out those extra 3.1 million positions. After that, the bottom of the range will probably hold. If the daily close falls below 0.98, the range is broken, with the next level at 0.91, where the wicks from September 20 and 23 sit. I won’t touch it until open interest falls back below 50 million tokens.

#FIL #Futures data

$TIA TIA rose as much as 60% in two weeks, but among the largest accounts by position size on Binance Futures, the share of long positions fell from 80% to just above 50%.

On October 4, TIA was still at 0.473. Yesterday at 1 p.m., it touched 0.769. Over the same period, the share of large-account positions that were long fell steadily from 80.3% to 53.9% by noon today. They kept selling into each rally, with hardly a pause. There was no need to dump their longs and crash the market; they could simply sell gradually as prices rose. On October 16, the day of the high-volume breakout, spot trading volume reached $40.8 million, nearly three times the previous 12-day daily average of $13 million—plenty of volume for anyone looking to sell.

Who is buying? The account data makes it clear. During the hour of yesterday's peak, 58.9% of accounts across the market were long. By noon today, after the price fell back to 0.631—an 18% pullback from the high—that figure had actually risen to 66.3%. Over the same period, open interest fell from 52.05 million tokens to 42.39 million, a drop of nearly 9.7 million. More and more accounts are going long, yet open interest has shrunk by almost 20%. The most plausible explanation is that large accounts were mainly closing their longs, while retail traders bought in gradually during the pullback. Funding rates have bounced between -0.0084% and +0.005% in recent days, and bears haven't piled in either.

A high share of retail longs is not necessarily a bad thing by itself. At 7 p.m. on October 9, the figure surged to 73.2%, higher than it is now. But the share of large-account longs was also 73.3% then, so both groups were on the same side. The price climbed from 0.481 and reached 0.613 a day and a half later. Now retail longs account for 66.3%, versus 53.9% for large accounts—a gap of 12 percentage points. They are no longer on the same side.

Technically, 0.633 was the peak of the two rallies on October 11 and 13. The 4-hour EMA26 is now at 0.632, so the two levels overlap and the price is sitting right on them. The 4-hour MACD has already formed a death cross, with the histogram at -0.007 and momentum declining. The next support below is the 4-hour EMA50 at 0.598, followed by the low of 0.5825 on the day the rally began, October 16.

My view is that TIA will first move toward 0.598. Until large accounts start adding to their positions again, 0.633 probably won't hold for long. I don't hold TIA. I'll wait until open interest stops falling near 0.5825 and the share of large-account longs climbs back above 58% before taking another look.

Personal opinion log #TIA

$SAND The last time the funding rate dropped to -0.87% was at midnight on October 3. Spot was at 0.0619 then, and it didn’t fall over the next 12 hours—instead, it surged to 0.0840, up another 36%.

That’s happening again today. The midnight settlement was -0.70%, and the 8 a.m. rate was -0.19%. Based on Binance’s current estimate, traders will have to pay another -0.43% at 4 p.m. The perpetual price is 1.7% below the spot index, and there are clearly more people rushing to sell than to buy in the perpetual market.

Open interest data shows who’s behind the short positions. From 3 p.m. yesterday to 3 a.m. this morning, perpetual open interest, measured in coins, rose from 205 million to 298 million—a 45% increase. Over the same period, the long-position share of the largest holders fell from 59.6% to 50.4%. The big players were short on the new positions. After 3 a.m., open interest fell back to 288 million, while the large holders’ long share recovered to 54.1%. The bears are already starting to back off.

The mechanics are simple: at the midnight funding rate, a 5x leveraged short loses 3.5% of its margin every 8 hours. The price doesn’t need to rise much before those who can’t hold on are forced to buy back.

The last real drop came after the funding rate returned to around zero. Over the two days starting October 5, spot fell from 0.077 to 0.0649, a 16% drop. That’s why, when I’m looking at a market like SAND, I pay more attention to the funding rate than to the candlestick chart.

The difference from early October is spot-market strength. On October 2 and 3, spot trading volume was $63.5 million and $59.4 million, respectively. The October 17 daily candle saw just $19.4 million—less than a third as much. Last night at 10 and 11 p.m., perpetuals traded $21.9 million and $26.5 million in just one hour each. Last time, real money flowed into spot and dragged the shorts along. This time, it’s mostly perpetuals driving the move, so I’m lowering my expectations for the upside.

Technically, the 4-hour price is pressing against the upper Bollinger Band at 0.0629, and the MACD histogram has stayed above the zero line at 0.00108. Below, the 4-hour EMA50 is at 0.0600, almost coinciding with the 1-hour EMA200 at 0.0599. That’s the lifeline for this move.

My view: as long as the funding rate stays below -0.3%, there’s a good chance the market will test last night’s high of 0.0669 again. I’ll start looking for a pullback only once the rate climbs back above -0.05%. If a 4-hour candle closes below 0.059, this thesis is invalidated. I don’t hold any SAND and won’t trade either side.

Personal opinion

#SAND #FundingRate

$GTC From 4 p.m. yesterday to 8 a.m. this morning, GTC contract shorts paid a total of 2.96% in funding across five settlements, with the worst one at -0.97%. Yet open interest fell only from a peak of 28.03 million tokens to 26.06 million, a drop of 7%. Normally, that would be fuel for a short squeeze, but the people paying up don’t look like they’re ready to leave.

A closer look shows two groups betting against each other. On Binance Futures, the share of large traders’ positions that are long fell from 54.6% at 11 a.m. yesterday to 51.0% at 8 a.m. this morning. But the long-to-short ratio by account count rose from 43.9% to 56.6% over the same period. Retail traders aren’t just going long because they’re bullish; they also collect a funding payment every four hours, so more and more are taking the long side. Meanwhile, short positions are shifting toward larger traders: they’re paying the funding but holding on.

The price action tells the same story. Perpetuals are now trading about 2.6% below spot, and the estimated funding rate for the noon settlement is still -0.75%. At that rate, shorts would pay over 4% a day. But over the past 18 hours, perpetuals bottomed at 0.2187 and never got back to yesterday’s 0.2642 high. Shorts haven’t been squeezed out or forced to cover.

Technically, the 4-hour EMA12 is at 0.2211, and every 4-hour candle since yesterday noon has closed above it, so the short-term structure is still intact. The upper 4-hour Keltner Channel is at 0.2555. On the daily chart, the KDJ J value is just 27.1, below K at 33.0 and D at 35.9, showing that daily momentum is already weakening.

Yesterday at 2 p.m., I wrote about GTC that if 0.2262 held, it would make another run at 0.2525. Perpetuals surged to 0.2642 at 3 p.m. that day, so that part was right. I also said the funding rate should return to within -0.1% after settlement. It never did, so I got that part wrong.

My view now is that shorts willing to bear a 4%-a-day cost probably have a hedge or some other compelling reason. Negative funding on GTC doesn’t count as a short-squeeze signal. A retest of 0.2187 looks more likely than a breakout above 0.2642. On the other hand, if a 4-hour candle closes above 0.2555 while open interest falls below 24 million tokens, that would show large traders are starting to throw in the towel—and I’d accept that. I still haven’t touched GTC: I won’t chase longs that collect funding, or follow shorts that pay it.

#GTC #Funding Rate

$AVA rose from the daily close of 0.2325 on October 12 to 0.4227 this morning, gaining as much as 82%. The daily RSI reached 82.4, its highest reading in nearly 300 days. But on Binance futures, the largest share of newly opened positions in this move came from large-trader shorts.

From 5 p.m. yesterday to 8 a.m. this morning, futures open interest, measured in coins, rose from 9.49 million to 14.07 million, an increase of 48%. Over the same period, the share of large traders’ positions that were long fell from 57.8% to 50.4%, and the long/short ratio dropped from 1.37 to 1.02. Retail accounts going long stayed between 52% and 54%. Open interest surged while large traders grew increasingly bearish; my read is that shorts made up a heavier share of the new positions. Open interest rose most sharply during the several hours between 11 p.m. and 6 a.m. The average futures trading price during that stretch was around 0.377, which gives us a rough estimate of the cost basis for these shorts.

I wrote about AVA once before, at midday on October 14. New positions were also skewed bearish then, but the funding rate was -0.040%, meaning shorts were paying every four hours. I figured price would first hit 0.2852; it surged to 0.3207 that afternoon, so that call was right. The biggest difference this time is the funding rate: the 8 a.m. settlement this morning was -0.0036%, basically zero. Shorts can hold their positions at almost no cost, with no time pressure forcing them to cover.

Now let’s look at price itself. It tested above 0.40 three times, at 2 a.m., 5 a.m., and 8 a.m., reaching a high of 0.4227, but hasn’t managed to hold above that level. The upper daily Bollinger Band is at 0.3524, and price is 11% above it. The daily ATR(14) is 0.0407, meaning a normal day’s move is around 10%. The 0.377 cost-basis level lines up almost exactly with this morning’s 7 a.m. low of 0.3726.

My view is that the funding rate isn’t forcing a short squeeze, and these large-trader shorts can afford to wait. In the short term, a move back toward 0.377 to test the shorts’ cost basis seems more likely. A four-hour close below 0.3726 would put 0.3524 in view next. A four-hour close above 0.4227, together with the large traders’ long-position share returning to above 53%, would be the sign that shorts are being squeezed.

I’m not holding a position in this move, and I’m not going to short a coin with a daily RSI of 82. Today I’m watching just one price: 0.377. If it holds, the shorts are in trouble; if it doesn’t, the large traders will have won the first round.

#AVA #LargeTraderPositions

$BAT rose from 0.1027 on October 8 to 0.2236, more than doubling in a week. Yet among the largest holders by position size on Binance Futures, the share of long positions fell from around 70% before the rally to 49.4% tonight. For the first time in 30 days, shorts outnumbered longs.

With the price doubling while large holders kept reducing their positions as it rose, it looks like early longs were using the rally to sell out. In the 4-hour data, this ratio had bottomed at 51.2% over the past 30 days, and peaked at 72.9% on September 30. Tonight, at 22:00, it broke below that range.

The fuel for this rally came from futures in the first place. Open interest, measured in tokens, rose from 22 million on October 2 to 85.92 million on the afternoon of October 14—nearly fourfold. It has now fallen back to 66.77 million, down 22% from the peak. The price has also pulled back 21% from its high, so capital and price have moved in tandem.

Tonight's drop was the result of selling out. From 20:00 to 22:00, spot fell from 0.1927 to 0.1761, while futures open interest, measured in tokens, dropped from 70.34 million to 66.77 million, a 5% decline—longs were closing. Over the same period, the share of retail accounts taking long positions actually rose from 52.1% to 53.8%; smaller accounts were buying the dip. During the 21:00 hour, futures volume was 7.87 million U, compared with just 1.03 million U on spot. The selling was carried out almost entirely in futures. The funding rate is only -0.012%, so shorts are not crowded at all, and there is no short squeeze to wait for.

Structurally, 0.1915 was the bottom of the 4-day trading range. Tonight, the price closed below it, turning it into resistance. The next closer resistance is the 4-hour EMA26 at 0.1863. The 1-hour RSI at 28.2 is low in the short term, but the 4-hour RSI at 45.2 is still nowhere near oversold. The first support below is the October 15 low of 0.1654, almost aligned with the 4-hour Bollinger lower band near 0.162. Below that is the daily EMA12 at 0.1614, the last line for this trend.

I don't think the pattern of large holders exiting while retail buys has changed. The 0.162–0.165 zone will probably be tested. I'll only accept that this was a shakeout if the 4-hour candle closes back above 0.1915 and the share of large-holder long positions also returns to above 52%. I haven't touched BAT at any point in this rally, and even at 0.162 I'll first watch how well it holds—I'm not going to buy just because it's fallen a lot. Personal opinion for the record.

#BAT #Futures data

$ZRO fell from 2.28 at 2 p.m. yesterday to 1.90 now, dropping 17% in a day and a half, yet Binance futures longs have barely budged. Measured in tokens, open interest only fell from 21.7 million to 20.66 million, a decline of less than 5%. The funding rate has stayed right around its +0.005% baseline, with no sign of a wave of long liquidations.

Among the largest traders, the share of long positions has stayed between 78% and 80%, while their long/short position ratio has climbed from 3.75 to 4.06. Retail traders are moving the other way: the share of accounts going long fell from 54.4% to 47.1%, tipping into net bearish territory.

A lot of people see whales going long and retail going short and call it a bottom signal. I don't see it that way this time. Open interest hasn't risen, which suggests the whales haven't put in new money—they just haven't accepted their losses. Spot selling is what's really driving this down. From 3 to 5 p.m. today, aggressive spot buys accounted for only 26% to 30% of trading volume. And at 1:33 p.m. on October 20, around 23.63 million ZRO will unlock for core contributors and strategic partners—more than the total open interest on Binance futures. Before the tokens unlock, nobody is in a hurry to buy at 1.90. The longer these whales hold their longs, the more exposed they'll be on unlock day.

Technically, the 4-hour KDJ J-value has already hit -18, indicating short-term oversold conditions. But the daily MACD histogram is still widening to the downside, growing from -0.027 to -0.038 in two days. The first support below is the 4-hour Keltner lower band at 1.82, followed by the October 15 low of 1.80, which is also the bottom of the past two weeks' trading range.

Looking back at my post from midday October 16, I said at 2.17 that 2.23 to 2.34 was a supply zone and that a move back to 2.01 was more likely. It later topped at 2.28 and turned lower. I got the direction right; the drop was just deeper than I expected.

Before the unlock, I expect 1.80 to 1.83 to be tested. If the daily candle closes below 1.80, the longs held by these nearly 80% of whales will turn from support into selling pressure, with the next level down at the October 1 low of 1.62. I’ll only call it a shakeout if the 4-hour candle closes back above 2.01 and open interest rises at the same time. I’m flat ZRO for now, and I’m not chasing shorts with the J-value at -18 either. Trading volume on unlock day will be more honest than any indicator.

#ZRO #TokenUnlock

$ERA spot surged from 0.0594 to 0.0727 this afternoon, gaining as much as 22%. At the same time, Binance futures shorts paid a funding rate of 2% in a single settlement, yet more and more traders kept piling in.

Measured in tokens, open interest stood at 54.63 million at 16:00 and reached 82.64 million by 20:00—up 51% in four hours. During that period, the share of accounts holding long positions fell from 57.5% to 55.7%, which means the accounts that came in were clearly leaning short. But among the largest position holders, the long/short ratio actually rose from 1.13 to 1.22.

More importantly, there’s the funding rate. The 20:00 settlement hit the -2% floor. Binance then changed ERA’s settlement interval from four hours to one hour, with the estimated rate at -0.53% at 21:00. The futures price was 0.0650, 3.8% below the spot index. The logic is simple: shorts have to pay half a percentage point for every extra hour they stay in. If the price doesn’t fall, they’ll slowly get bled dry, and those who can’t take it will have to buy back to close their positions.

Technically, the 1-hour RSI is 69, and the upper Bollinger Band is at 0.0689; the price hasn’t touched it yet. The daily EMA26 is at 0.0650, almost exactly aligned with the afternoon’s three pullback lows of 0.0655 to 0.0658. That’s the key level separating bulls from bears. Spot trading volume is also worth watching: it was above $1.7 million per hour at both 16:00 and 17:00, but the 20:00 candle has only reached $570,000 so far. Buying pressure is cooling off, and that’s my biggest concern about this rally.

ERA had an almost identical setup on October 10. It surged to 0.1137 in a day, while the funding rate fell as low as -1.38%. At the time, I said that with a spot premium and deeply negative funding, shorts were in greater danger, and that a drop below 0.0795 would mean it was just a one-off pump. The next day it did surge again to 0.0939, but closed that day at 0.0782, then fell all the way to 0.0564 on October 15. The first part of my call was only right for one day; the level I gave in the second part was the right dividing line.

So this time, I’m only looking at the short term: if 0.0655 holds, shorts paying funding hourly probably won’t last long, and a retest of 0.0727 is more likely. But that would be a short squeeze, not a change to the broader downward trend on the daily chart. If the 1-hour candle closes below 0.0655, it means spot buyers have pulled out, and shorts will have gotten their money’s worth from that 2% funding payment. I don’t hold ERA, and I’m staying out of both sides.

#ERA #Funding rate

$EPIC This afternoon, it surged from 0.218 to 0.335 in two hours, gaining as much as 53%. But on Binance Futures, the large traders with the biggest positions cut their long-short position ratio from 2.98 to 2.00 over that same period.

Most of this move was driven by money coming into futures. Futures open interest, measured in tokens, stood at 10.75 million at 1 p.m. and rose to 14.19 million by 3 p.m.—up 32% in two hours. Between 2 and 3 p.m., futures trading volume was $11.42 million, compared with just $2.11 million in spot trading—more than five times as much. At the 4 p.m. funding settlement, the rate hit +0.107%. For the previous two days, it had been hovering around +0.005% at almost every settlement, so the cost of holding a long position suddenly jumped to 21 times its usual level.

The large traders’ share of long positions fell from 74.9% to 66.7%, while the share of retail accounts holding longs rose from 52.5% to around 55%. New longs chased the rally in, while earlier longs took the opportunity to sell. The price fell from 0.335 to an intraday low of 0.254 at 4 p.m., giving back 70% of its gains, and open interest also dropped to 13.25 million tokens.

Put simply, leveraged longs pushed the price up while paying positive funding to hold their positions. Once it pulled back, they had no choice but to close their longs.

Looking back at my October 16 post, I wrote that 0.191 would most likely be tested. Instead, the low was only 0.2112, and today it even printed a bullish candle up 53%. That call was wrong. At the time, I said longs would only be washed out if the large traders’ ratio fell below 1.5 or funding turned negative. Neither has happened yet. The price bounced first, and it wasn’t a short squeeze—the move came from longs chasing the rally.

Technically, the daily RSI(14) is still at 29.2, remaining in oversold territory. The 4-hour EMA26 is at 0.307, while the 1-hour Bollinger upper band is at 0.302. The two levels converge around 0.30, which the price briefly broke above this afternoon but failed to hold. The 1-hour Bollinger midline at 0.251 provided support during this pullback.

I see this bullish candle as a collective bout of chasing by futures longs, not as a bottom signal. Funding is still positive and large traders are still reducing their positions, so the 0.251–0.254 zone will most likely be tested again. If it fails to hold, the price could return to today’s low of 0.218. For me to change my view, I’d need to see a 4-hour close above 0.307, while funding returns to within +0.01%. I’m still flat on EPIC—not chasing the rally, and not taking on a crowd of longs who are paying funding. Personal opinion only.

#EPIC #Futures data

$PROM 24 hours fell 16.6%. More than 70% of accounts on Binance Futures are short, which would normally be fuel for a short squeeze. But that ratio has barely changed in a month. What really changed was the position of the whales.

First, retail traders. Since September 18, the share of long accounts has stayed between 25% and 33% every day. Retail traders in PROM were already accustomed to being short; this isn’t a crowded position that built up over just the past couple of days.

What changed was the whales. The long share of top accounts by position size was still 74.8% on September 29, but had fallen to 52.9% by October 16. Over the same period, futures open interest, measured in tokens, shrank from 3.25 million in late September to 1.26 million on October 15—a 60% cut. Whale longs were what had been supporting this token all along. They’ve been closing positions and selling as the price slid from 6.5 in early October to 4.6. Shorts haven’t had to cover at all. Funding rates have hovered around zero over the past couple of days, with the lowest interval at just -0.04%. Shorts are paying virtually nothing to hold their positions, and nobody is being forced to buy back.

Last night made this especially clear. The 5.00 round-number level was held for more than two hours, with about $3 million worth of spot trading between 5.00 and 5.04. Then the 15-minute candle at 23:15 plunged straight to 4.407, a 12% drop. Today, whales added a little back, bringing the long share to 57.6% and increasing open interest from 1.27 million to 1.47 million tokens. Yet the price still slid from 4.93 to 4.63. It’s getting harder and harder to absorb the selling.

Technically, the daily close is below the EMA50 at 5.07. Both K and D on the KDJ are falling around 25, while J is at 19. The 4.76–4.80 area, which marked the lows on three previous occasions, has now become resistance overhead.

My view is that this drop is due to whales retreating, not shorts squeezing the market. The 4.407 low will most likely be tested again; if it breaks, the next level to watch is 4.30, the wick from September 22. For me to change my view, I’d first need to see the whale long share climb back above 60% and the daily close reclaim 4.80. I don’t hold PROM, and I’m not going to pile into a short when 70% of traders are already short.

#PROM #合约持仓 #Whale Long/Short Ratio