0xfrigg

$SUI made one of the strongest moves in the market today, so I took a closer look

I first wanted to understand why it was outperforming this hard, but there doesn’t seem to be one major SUI-specific headline driving the whole move

It looks more like a combination of momentum that had already been building for a few days, L1 rotation, real spot participation and a short squeeze.

that’s not a bad thing

SUI is clearly strong right now

but for me, a strong asset and a good entry are not the same thing

price moved a lot in a very short period, and OI also climbed with it. that tells me new longs are starting to chase the move too

so I’m not interested in opening a long around $1.02 here

the first area I care about is $0.94–$0.98

If SUI pulls back there in a controlled way and buyers defend the breakout area, I’d start looking at the long side.

The other option is real acceptance above roughly $1.055–$1.07

So for now:

I’m bullish on direction

I’m patient on entry

SUI will either give me a cleaner retest, or prove that the breakout still has room to continue

SUI-4.76%

today’s crypto selloff looks more like a leverage reset than fresh spot capitulation

more than $500M in leveraged positions were wiped out across the market, with longs taking most of the damage

and the derivatives side is still doing a lot more work than spot

on-chain perp volume is around $23.5B right now, versus roughly $7.2B across DEX spot

$ETH is probably the clearest example

price fell hard while open interest dropped, meaning positions were actually being closed rather than traders simply piling into new shorts

$BTC looks a little different: OI has stayed roughly flat to slightly higher, so positioning there hasn’t reset as cleanly

that changes how I trade this

I’m not chasing the first green candle as a new trend

A bounce after this kind of flush can just be shorts closing

but I’m not excited about chasing fresh shorts after hundreds of millions in longs were already forced out either

what I want next:

price stabilization + OI staying flat/down + actual spot buying
before treating a bounce as something more than a liquidity reset

right now:
leverage got cleaned out
spot still needs to prove it wants back in

ETH’s selloff isn’t just an ETF story

US spot $ETH ETFs have now printed 5 straight red sessions, with roughly $405M in net outflows

the interesting part was yesterday

$201.9M left in a single session, all from BlackRock’s ETHA

yet ETH only moved around 0.5% lower that day

the sharper move came after that, as leveraged longs started getting flushed

that distinction matters

demand was already weakening

Leverage amplified the move

ETH is also losing ground against BTC today, so I don’t think this can be dismissed as just a market-wide liquidation event

but after a flush like this, I’m not interested in chasing shorts either

my next setup is around the recovery:

reclaim $2.64K → I start looking for a bounce back toward $2.70K

If buyers can’t reclaim that area and ETH keeps losing relative strength, I stay defensive

right now the data says:

weak underlying demand + forced deleveraging

not simply “ETH dumped because ETFs sold.”

Verified

$NEAR is one of the few alts I actually like here

not enough to chase it at resistance, but enough to keep it high on my list

the reason is pretty simple:

NEAR has been showing real relative strength while BTC, ETH and SOL have been much flatter

and there’s actually something underneath the move

Bitwise launched the first U.S. spot NEAR ETF last week

the fund holds NEAR directly and Bitwise plans to stake the tokens

at the same time, NEAR Intents generated around $7.3M in fees over the last 30 days

so this isn’t just “altcoin rotation” to me

the problem is price

NEAR is trading right below the $5.35–$5.47 area after a strong run

I don’t want to chase that

my plan:

$5.47 4H acceptance + successful retest → breakout long

first area I’d look for is $5.90–$6.00

or give me a clean reset back into $4.94–$5.00 and I’ll reassess the dip

strong coin

just not a strong entry yet

NEAR-9.60%

$BTC is a breakout-long setup for me right now

I’m not buying in the middle of the range

BTC is still struggling around the $87K area, but the setup underneath doesn’t look heavily leveraged

open interest has eased slightly over the last 24h rather than expanding with price

ETF flows also had a negative day, but zooming out matters

the latest session was around -$89.8M, while the last 7 sessions are still roughly +$286M net positive

so I’m not reading this as broad institutional selling yet

my plan is simple:

4H acceptance above $87.1K + a successful retest → I’m looking long

first area I’d watch is $89.5K–$90K.
If BTC loses $85.5K instead, the long setup is off for me

below $84.8K, I’d start taking the downside much more seriously

so:
above $87.1K = long setup
below $85.5K = weakness
between them = no trade

$ARB update

the $0.214–$0.220 area I was watching finally got tested

but I didn’t get the clean defense I wanted

ARB swept below the zone toward $0.211 and then reclaimed it, while the previous $0.2545 breakout never confirmed

relative strength vs BTC and ETH has also cooled

so I’m not adding here

what I want now is a reclaim of $0.230, and ideally $0.240, before treating this as continuation again

A 4H close below $0.211 would weaken the bounce significantly

and my view on $1 hasn’t changed:

$1 is still a narrative target, not a data-backed target

the chain can be active without that activity automatically becoming ARB demand

0xfrigg

Arbitrum saw roughly $1.07B in net bridge inflows over the last 7 days

that sounds extremely bullish for $ARB

but bridge inflow into Arbitrum is not the same thing as buying ARB

most of that capital hasn’t shown up as permanent DeFi deployment, and there’s still no clean evidence of sustained ARB spot accumulation

what is real is the relative strength

ARB is up roughly 11% over the last 72h, outperforming both BTC and ETH

but the move is still heavily derivatives-driven

futures volume is running at roughly 6x spot volume, OI expanded with price, and after the push to $0.2545, late longs started getting flushed

so I’m not buying the “$1 because $1B flowed into Arbitrum” narrative

those are two completely different things

for me, the interesting area is $0.214–$0.220

If ARB holds that zone and spot demand starts confirming the move, I’d look at the long side

If it reclaims $0.2545 with real acceptance, continuation becomes much more interesting

until then, $1 is a narrative target, not a data-backed target

ARB-2.92%

$ETH update

the retest I was waiting for finally came

ETH traded through the $2,665–$2,700 area and even swept slightly below it, but importantly, we still haven’t had a 4H close below $2,640

so the setup is still alive

but I wouldn’t call the bounce fully convincing yet

ETF inflows are still positive, but they’re slowing, ETH/BTC still isn’t showing real strength, and the latest bounce was helped a lot by short liquidations

so if you took the retest, I think the position still makes sense

I just wouldn’t add here yet

what I want next:

$2,700 reclaim and hold

then eventually

$2,785 acceptance

A 4H close below $2,640 would invalidate the setup for me

the retest happened. now ETH needs to prove it can actually lead

$SOL update

I was watching $115.5–$117 as my long interest zone

we got the first reaction there, but the level didn’t hold

SOL then lost $115 and gave multiple 4H closes below it

that invalidates the setup for me

ETF inflows are still positive, but they’ve slowed, and the latest move has been dominated by long liquidations rather than fresh spot demand

so I’m not treating $115.5–$117 as support anymore

It’s resistance until proven otherwise

If SOL reclaims that area and holds it on the 4H, I’ll reassess

until then, I’m out of this setup

the level failed. the thesis changes with it

0xfrigg

$SOL is finally trading in the area I actually care about

ETF inflows are still giving SOL real spot demand, and the broader structure is still bullish

the move hasn’t fully separated from BTC/ETH yet, but around $115.5–$117, I think the risk/reward starts making sense again

this is where I’d start looking at a long

If SOL holds this zone and starts regaining relative strength vs BTC/ETH, I’d expect another attempt at $120

above $120 with real acceptance, I’d look for continuation

If we lose $115 on a 4H close, the setup becomes much less interesting to me

SOL-4.03%

quick $BTC update

I said I wanted to see $83K–$84K turn into support, or real acceptance above $86K

we actually got closes above $86K

but the important part is that BTC couldn’t hold them

price is now back around the old breakout area, which means $83K–$84K is no longer confirmed support. It’s a pivot again

the good part:

ETF demand stayed strong and leverage has cooled significantly

the bad part:

the latest flush has been heavily long-sided

so I’m not adding here

I want to see BTC defend $82.2K–$83K and reclaim $84.7K–$85K

If that happens, I’d look at the long side again

A 4H close below $82.2K would weaken the setup much more

the breakout happened

the hold didn’t

0xfrigg

Bullish

In my previous $BTC post, I said I was watching the $82K–$83K area as the real breakout confirmation zone

We got the confirmation

BTC closed above the range and pushed all the way toward $85K

But I’m not chasing the move here

A meaningful part of the rally was still accelerated by short liquidations, while OI also moved higher with price. So even though the breakout is real, leverage is building again

For me, the key area now is $83K–$84K

If BTC comes back and holds the old resistance as support, that would give me a much cleaner setup for a new position.

If it keeps moving higher from here, I’d rather wait for acceptance above $86K

So the previous thesis worked, but the plan hasn’t changed:

I’m not chasing just because confirmation came

Now I want to see the breakout actually turn into support

$ETH has a weird setup right now

the demand is clearly there

spot ETH ETFs took in roughly $576M across the last three positive sessions, corporate ETH holdings keep growing, and staking continues to remove a meaningful amount of supply from the market

but ETH still isn’t leading

ETH/BTC has actually weakened during the move

that tells me something important:

ETH doesn’t have a demand problem right now. It has a leadership problem

I’m still bullish on the underlying setup, but I want to see that demand finally show up in relative strength

for me, $2,785 is the important level

If ETH accepts above it while ETH/BTC stops bleeding, I’d be much more interested in the long side

until then, I’m treating this as $BTC -led strength with real ETH demand underneath it not an ETH breakout yet

Verified

Circle just made $BTC a little more useful as collateral

institutions can now deposit BTC, mint cirBTC, use it as collateral on Morpho and borrow USDC without selling their BTC

at first glance, that sounds obviously bullish

and structurally, it probably is

If a BTC holder needs dollar liquidity, they now have another option besides selling spot. That can reduce some marginal sell pressure and makes BTC more useful as a balance-sheet asset

but there’s another side to it

BTC collateral ➛ USDC borrow ➛ redeploy into crypto

is also a new leverage loop

If BTC keeps going up, that can create more borrowing capacity and more risk appetite

If BTC drops, the same structure can flip into liquidations

rn the product is still small

cirBTC supply is only around $96M and the Arc Morpho market has roughly $19M borrowed

so I don’t see this as a major BTC price catalyst yet

what I do think is interesting is the direction:

BTC is slowly becoming something institutions can borrow against instead of something they have to sell for liquidity

bullish infrastructure

but also more leverage to monitor

I’m not overcomplicating $PEPE here

meme rotation is still strong, but the move is extended and over the last few hours funding has been rising while liquidations have started shifting toward longs

I’m watching the $0.00000475–$0.00000485 area

If we get a controlled retest and buyers defend that zone, I’ll look for a long

PEPE-2.47%

yesterday I said I wanted to see real acceptance above $4.44 before treating $NEAR as a continuation setup

price moved above the level, but for me the confirmation still isn’t there yet

The reason is simple

we got a few hourly closes above $4.44, but after the first breakout NEAR slipped back below the level several times, and we still haven’t seen a completed 4H close proving that this area has really flipped into support

what’s interesting is that the fundamental side actually looks stronger

NEAR Intents TVL is still growing, routed volume and fees are rising, and $ZEC routing is still active

so the thesis itself is still intact

what I’m more cautious about now is positioning

OI has increased sharply over the past 24 hours and funding is positive. New longs are entering the move, while price still hasn’t cleanly turned the breakout level into support

that’s why I’m not chasing a full-size long here

what I want to see is:

A completed 4H acceptance above $4.44, followed by a hold of the $4.44–$4.40 area

if that happens, the continuation setup becomes much cleaner to me

for now:

fundamentals confirmed
price confirmation not yet

trading above a level and actually accepting that level are not the same thing

0xfrigg

$NEAR caught my attention today, and unlike some of the other moves in the market, there’s actually a fundamental catalyst behind this one.

the most interesting part for me is $ZEC

this isn’t simply a “ZEC is pumping, privacy is hot, so NEAR is pumping too” story

Increasing ZEC activity is bringing real transaction flow into NEAR Intents

users are routing ZEC into other assets through Intents, and that activity has accelerated significantly over the past few days

that matters because the privacy narrative isn’t just creating attention for NEAR

It’s actually driving usage of the product

NEAR Intents TVL has been growing, the product is generating real fees and revenue, and the revenue captured by Intents is used for NEAR buybacks

so the part of the thesis I find interesting is:

ZEC demand → Intents volume → fees/revenue → NEAR buybacks.

that’s why I don’t see NEAR’s recent outperformance as just another short squeeze or momentum move.

there’s real usage underneath it.

that said, I’m still not chasing the price here

NEAR is already up roughly 67% over the past week, and after shorts were heavily squeezed during the first part of the move, we’re now starting to see late longs getting flushed too

A good catalyst doesn’t automatically mean a good entry

The first area I’m interested in is $3.85–$4.02

If NEAR gives me a controlled retest there and buyers defend the breakout area, I’d start looking for a long

The other scenario is real acceptance above $4.44

For now:

thesis is bullish
catalyst is real
entry still matters

A good thesis doesn’t make a bad entry good

Bullish

0xfrigg

$BTC is back above $80K, but I’m not interested in chasing a new position here.

The move itself was definitely strong. Spot demand improved and ETF flows turned positive again after the heavy outflows earlier in the week.

But a meaningful part of the move was also driven by a short squeeze.

So the main question for me isn’t how BTC got from $75K to $81K.

It’s who keeps buying from here.

I’m watching the $82K–$83K area very closely. BTC has struggled around this zone before, and I think this is where the real breakout confirmation comes.

Right now I’d rather see one of two things.

First, BTC pulls back toward $80K and holds it as support. A clean retest there would make me much more comfortable adding.

Second, BTC breaks through $82K–$83K with real volume and then holds that area as support. If that happens, I’d start taking continuation toward $85K–$86K much more seriously.

What I don’t like is chasing BTC around $81K right after a squeeze. The risk/reward just isn’t that attractive to me here.

My base case for now is still some consolidation between roughly $79.5K and $83K.

And honestly, I don’t think that would be a bad thing.

BTC spending some time above $80K, leverage cooling down, and ETF demand continuing would make the next move much healthier.

So I’m leaning bullish here, but I’m not calling the breakout confirmed yet.

For me:

$80K → retest area
$82K–$83K → real confirmation
Below $79.5K → short-term structure starts weakening

No rush for me here.

BTC will either give me a better entry, or prove that the breakout is real.

these opportunities don’t come around every day in crypto

$ZEC - Zcash hype is high rn

I’ve been tracking it through Fomo too, but I missed $FEELSGOOD

the early entries did really well

just gotta keep chasing the right things long enough

$SOL had positive ETF inflows and still went down.

On Sep 9, SOL spot ETFs saw around +$11.2–11.7M net inflow.

SOL still fell around 2.9% over the same 24h window.

the reason is pretty simple:

ETF demand was real.

it just wasnt the strongest force in the market that day.

BTC and ETH were weak too, and SOL moved like the higher-beta asset.

then leverage made the move worse.

SOL saw around $13.16M in liquidations.

$12.42M were longs.

thats around 94.4%.

so once price started falling, leveraged traders positioned for upside became forced sellers.

important part though:

I wouldnt say liquidations caused the whole drop.

they probably amplified it.

without cleaner OI, funding and spot CVD data, we still dont know exactly where the first selling came from.

so the clean read is:

ETF demand was there.

short-term selling pressure was just stronger