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比特币ETF成最大资金吸引者，市值占比超黄金，NV剑指2万亿，CB财报隐忧
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机构在加速减仓大科技股（下图TMT）
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现货BTC ETF 获得批准的预期叠加美元和美债收益率走弱的背景，让BTC突破40,000美元关口。市场现十分乐观ETF可以在1月上旬被批准。然而我们之前也分析过，并不认为加密货币市场的进入目前受到严格限制，不管是Coinbase还是已经上市的加密ETP例如BITO和GBTC之类，又或是比特币和以太坊期货市场。 根据Coinbase 2023年2月的一项调查，20%的美国人拥有加密货币，对比美国人直接持有股票的比例为21%，显示加密货币在美国的渗透率已经很高（如过CB调查数据不至于太离谱），进一步扩大空间有限。所以我倾向于认为不管1月比特币ETF再次失败或是成功，可能都意味着短期顶部的出现。
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期货市场美股净多头连续第三周上涨，但与经济基本面的严重背离也是19年底以来首次出现
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尽管许多人认为美联储宽松周期将是股市下一波上涨的催化剂,但历史表明,在美联储宽松周期和投资级信用利差扩大同时发生的环境对股票最糟糕，也就是衰退环境。多头应该希望经济改善，导致信贷环境宽松，而不是因为经济疲软而由鸽派美联储主导的宽松。
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