1. Pre-Hallowing Rally
About two months before the halving, Bitcoin tends to enter a Pre-Hallowing Rally (light blue)
In previous cycles, Bitcoin was rejected from the Macro Diagonal at the end of the Pre-Hallowing Rally
But in this cycle Bitcoin is currently pressing beyond the Macro Diagonal
The Monthly Candle Close beyond this Macro Diagonal later this month will confirm a historic technical achievement...
Bitcoin went against the grain of history to break the Macro Diagonal during the Pre-Hallowing period.
2. Withdrawal Before Halving
Historically, Bitcoin experiences its Pre-Hallowing Decline a few weeks before the Halving
And this Pre-Hallowing Pullback could be triggered by the rejection of the Macro Diagonal
This was also the case in 2016 and 2020
However, if the Bitcoin Monthly Candle Closes above the Macro Diagonal later this month...
The Pre-Hallowing Pullback can be thought of as a retest of the Macro Diagonal with the aim of transforming it from old resistance to new support.
3. Macro Cross Rejection
Bitcoin tends to reject from Macro Resistance in Pre-Halving Period
In 2016, this Macro Crossover triggered the Pre-Hallowing Pullback
Throughout 2019 and 2020, Bitcoin was rejected from the Macro Diagonal three times before the Halving.
But this Macro Diagonal weakens over time
In the post-halving period, this Macro Diagonal offers the last but weakest rejection before breaking.
4. Reaccumulation After Halving
During this period, Bitcoin tends to follow its Pre-Hallowing Reversal
This consolidation is seen as Reaccumulation in preparation for the next breakout move
In the context of the Macro Diagonal, historically this Reaccumulation phase has occurred below the Macro Diagonal.
But Bitcoin Monthly Close should be above the Macro Diagonal at the end of this month....
It is possible for the Reaccumulation range to develop above the Macro Diagonal in this cycle.
As a result, the Reaccumulation phase can facilitate Macro Cross Retesting (black circle).
5. Macro Cross Retest
Historically this Retest tends to occur in the Post-Halfing period
And it is this Retest of the Macro Diagonal as new support that has enabled Bitcoin to break out to new all-time highs and transition into the Parabolic Rising phase of the cycle.
The breakout to new All Time Highs has historically occurred approximately 215 days after the Halving.
6. Parabolic Increase After Halving
When the Macro Cross Retest is successful, Bitcoin confirms the continuation of the uptrend enabling a breakout from the Reaccumulation phase
Bitcoin then moves into the most parabolic phase of the cycle
During this phase, Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth on the way to Price Discovery and new All-Time Highs.
SOURCE: RECT CAPITAL ON
