A few thoughts to share:
The sell-off a couple of days ago was attributed to several macro factors, but those factors had been deteriorating for quite some time. In particular, long-term U.S. Treasury yields kept making new highs, while crypto and U.S. stock indices also continued to hit new highs during that period.
This suggests that market pressure is coming not just from interest rates, but also from earnings expectations, positioning risk, and deleveraging.
The minutes from the meeting the day before yesterday also made clear that there will be another rate hike this year. Oil prices rebounded somewhat yesterday, possibly because the risks in the Middle East remain unresolved and the U.S. and Iran are still trying to find common ground. This suggests that with oil prices high, it will be difficult for markets to tighten much in the short term.
Yesterday’s sell-off flushed some leveraged longs out of the market, and short-term selling also appears to be running out of steam. But this is not a signal to buy the dip: the break below multiple support levels on the 4-hour chart has created a bearish structure. Let’s see how the market tests the lows over the next few days before deciding. In the near term, watch resistance around 83,000, with support below at 80,000.
Crude oil is now in a tug-of-war. I closed my short positions around 88 after opening them near 96, and have been trading the swings since. But there’s no clear direction now: will things escalate, or will there be negotiations? Iran is running out of time, though, and Trump will surely make a move around the midterm elections in November. Trade according to the market’s direction. If there’s still no news of negotiations by the end of the month and prices are below 90, I’ll look to trade a rebound.
As I noted yesterday, gold has reached the previously identified support zone of 4,080–4,060, which should bring a rebound. Today’s rebound came as expected. If macro conditions stabilize, gold’s rebound could continue to at least around 4,300–4,500. Stay positioned for buying on dips; if prices pull back to around 4,150 in the short term, I’ll add to my longs.
$BTC $CL $XAU
The sell-off a couple of days ago was attributed to several macro factors, but those factors had been deteriorating for quite some time. In particular, long-term U.S. Treasury yields kept making new highs, while crypto and U.S. stock indices also continued to hit new highs during that period.
This suggests that market pressure is coming not just from interest rates, but also from earnings expectations, positioning risk, and deleveraging.
The minutes from the meeting the day before yesterday also made clear that there will be another rate hike this year. Oil prices rebounded somewhat yesterday, possibly because the risks in the Middle East remain unresolved and the U.S. and Iran are still trying to find common ground. This suggests that with oil prices high, it will be difficult for markets to tighten much in the short term.
Yesterday’s sell-off flushed some leveraged longs out of the market, and short-term selling also appears to be running out of steam. But this is not a signal to buy the dip: the break below multiple support levels on the 4-hour chart has created a bearish structure. Let’s see how the market tests the lows over the next few days before deciding. In the near term, watch resistance around 83,000, with support below at 80,000.
Crude oil is now in a tug-of-war. I closed my short positions around 88 after opening them near 96, and have been trading the swings since. But there’s no clear direction now: will things escalate, or will there be negotiations? Iran is running out of time, though, and Trump will surely make a move around the midterm elections in November. Trade according to the market’s direction. If there’s still no news of negotiations by the end of the month and prices are below 90, I’ll look to trade a rebound.
As I noted yesterday, gold has reached the previously identified support zone of 4,080–4,060, which should bring a rebound. Today’s rebound came as expected. If macro conditions stabilize, gold’s rebound could continue to at least around 4,300–4,500. Stay positioned for buying on dips; if prices pull back to around 4,150 in the short term, I’ll add to my longs.
$BTC $CL $XAU