#cpiwatch #CPIWatch
#CPIWatch
The CPI is out, and the Fed hike debate just got more interesting.
august CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, matching expectations. But core CPI rose 0.3% monthly, slightly above the 0.2% forecast. That matters because inflation is still well above the Fed's 2% target.
the jobs picture also remains stronger than expected. August NFP jumped 162K versus the 56K forecast, with unemployment holding at 4.1%...
my view has shifted from neutral to slightly bearish for rate-sensitive assets. Markets are now pricing a much higher chance of a September hike, while stocks initially reacted positively as CPI matched expectations. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were around 0.8% higher, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased after briefly approaching 5%.
$MET $TFUEL $RAY
What happens next?
#CPIWatch
The CPI is out, and the Fed hike debate just got more interesting.
august CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, matching expectations. But core CPI rose 0.3% monthly, slightly above the 0.2% forecast. That matters because inflation is still well above the Fed's 2% target.
the jobs picture also remains stronger than expected. August NFP jumped 162K versus the 56K forecast, with unemployment holding at 4.1%...
my view has shifted from neutral to slightly bearish for rate-sensitive assets. Markets are now pricing a much higher chance of a September hike, while stocks initially reacted positively as CPI matched expectations. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were around 0.8% higher, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased after briefly approaching 5%.
$MET $TFUEL $RAY
What happens next?
🔴 Fed hikes
🟠 Fed holds
🟢Another hike later this year
⚪ Policy stays unchanged
16 hr(s) left