🚨 CPI is out—what BTC really needs to be wary of isn’t that the data is “high.”
The U.S. August CPI was just released:
📊 CPI: 3.4%
📈 Core CPI: 2.4%
📈 CPI month-over-month rate: +0.4%
On the surface, the CPI year-on-year rate is basically in line with market expectations.
But what’s really worth noting is:
Core CPI came in at 0.3% month-over-month, and inflation pressure isn’t as light as people might have imagined.
This will affect a very important variable:
How much room is there for the Fed to cut or raise rates next?
For BTC, I won’t simply say “bearish” or “bullish” right now.
I’m more focused on the next three reactions:
① Whether US Treasury yields continue to rise
② Whether the US dollar will continue to strengthen
③ Whether BTC can reclaim the key price levels
Data is just the first step.
What really matters is:
Data → rate expectations → USD/UST → BTC price reaction
If the data is hot, but BTC doesn’t fall—instead even quickly recovers its losses—this may indicate that the market’s ability to absorb is stronger than we think.
If BTC keeps weakening, while the US dollar and US Treasury yields continue to rise, then we need to be more cautious.
So don’t rush to guess whether it’ll go up or down tonight.
First, see how the market “digests” this data.
Where do you think BTC will go tonight?
A 🟢 Breaks through again
B 🟡 Continued range-bound trading
C 🔴 Continues to pull back
⚠️ This content is for sharing market information only and does not constitute investment advice.