诸葛投研

Some fans asked me: if I don’t buy this, and I don’t touch that, is there actually any coin trading going on?

My answer is boring—so boring that this post probably won’t get much traffic: yes, I am trading crypto, but basically I’ve only bought $BTC , $BNB , and $SOL . The rest are just “lottery” positions, just messing around. (That’s also why my analysis tries to stay as objective as possible—I don’t need to shout calls to get people to bag-hold for me.)

1. The one I’m down on the most right now is BNB. Since I needed to participate in Alpha’s TGE, I habitually kept holding BNB, which affected my investment judgment—I didn’t manage to trim at the top. So strictly speaking, I don’t even know whether playing Alpha made me lose or profit.

2. BTC and SOL were built up in batches during this round of decline. I think BTC may still drop, but I started averaging in when BTC was already above 70,000. In my view, if a token is destined to go to the moon, then boarding on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau versus boarding in the Tarim Basin—there isn’t much difference. The key is to get on the train.

3. The point is: there are very, very few tokens that can go to the moon. But I believe BTC should be the least controversial one. So my solution is simple: go with assets led by BTC. Decentralized-wise, I look at BTC; centralized-wise, I look at BNB.

4. Of course, my approach is too ordinary. Most people have heard of it. And many people don’t agree with my method—after all, most people come to this space aiming for 100x coins, aiming to turn their lives around in half a year.

5. I just accepted it long ago—I’m not the kind of person who can change my life in half a year. For example, the “dog-chasing and profit contest” that Binance Wallet ends today: as long as you don’t lose money, you can get on the profit leaderboard! What difficulty level do you think “dog chasing” or playing copycats is?

More than a year later, the $ETH /$BTC exchange rate has once again climbed above the daily EMA200.

Last time was in July of last year: ETH was directly squeezed and surged from 2500 to around 4950 in one go.

This time, the exchange-rate pair has once again reclaimed the threshold line. Fundamentally, it’s still that the “usage” demand for ETH continues to be increasingly tapped. Second, more patient capital has entered, and listed companies have included it on their balance sheets.

Next, continue adding to your ETH position.

$CP Is this what I cursed out their sense of shame? It’s been falling for 10 straight days, and then suddenly they throw me a 12% big bullish candle. But for friends thinking of chasing, don’t be impulsive—ask these 3 questions first:

1. Who’s buying? Is it still retail getting into PVP? As of today, the project team hasn’t taken any action: no buyback, no burn, no announcement about locks. They haven’t even said a word—everyone can guess the project team’s attitude.

2. Is there volume? It is indeed a rare big bullish candle, but when I pulled the volume up, it immediately chilled me: 24h trading volume is $5.08 million, same order of magnitude as yesterday. This kind of rally with no volume is basically just an oversold bounce.

3. Is there room to go up? No. The moving averages are all pressing down overhead: MA7 is at 0.0176, far above the current price. In this structure, for every step up by one unit, it’s just the escape window for the people who got stuck earlier—there’s really no room to run.

If you want to play, wait for 2 signals: daily trading volume shrinking to below one million and holding sideways, or the project team officially announcing an action.

Yesterday there was major good news for the Solana ecosystem—did everyone notice?

Solana’s new meme coins launched in a single day reached 263,000; in the past 24 hours, DEX trading volume hit $2.948 billion; and daily app revenue was $5.09 million. All three figures ranked #1—especially revenue, which is double that of the #2 chain, BSC.

So although <c-1/>$SOL has been hovering around 100 for a while and the fundamentals and price are diverging, it’s reasonable to expect that after the October Alpenglow upgrade, the price will catch up.

Especially since starting last October, SOL has been falling for 10 straight months. In August, it just closed its first big bullish candle on the monthly chart. The monthly RSI also broke through the downward trendline that has been pressing for two years at the same time, and the monthly MACD is also about to form a golden cross. The basic signals for a long-cycle reversal are basically all in place.

Over the next two weeks, it’s likely just going to be a painful consolidation. If there are any major negative surprises, it may dip a bit for a shakeout. But everyone should just hold firmly to the chips they have and wait for the day when the price catches up with the fundamentals.

Last night’s CPI script confused me: originally core CPI month-over-month came in at 0.3%, and the rate-hike probability jumped from 70% to 90%—$BTC is rock-bottom kneeling.

Then it just dropped so it could pop that $70 million on-chain mega whale, and after that it kept climbing until I started questioning my life.

Some brothers said it’s the “bad news landing is good news” script, but I don’t think so. “Bad news landing” refers to a bad-news event that has already been reflected in the coin price, and then in the short term there’s no more bad news—so everyone dares to push. #CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息

But this rate hike is not that:
1) First, the prior rate-hike expectations were 70%, meaning only 70% was already priced in;
2) The real “landing” is the FOMC meeting on the 16th—so what is this supposed to be landing;
3) Even if it lands on the 16th, the market still expects two more rate hikes within the year, plus there’s the mid-term election uncertainty around “Chuanzi”—all of that is bearish.

So I’m not surprised that after the late-night spike it dumped. And when I saw on-chain that a smart money mega whale who had previously gone long $ETH made tens of millions, then switched and opened a 4x BTC big short—I’m even more convinced it’s going to fall.

Also, I saw ETF flows all turning to net outflows: yesterday BTC outflow was 283 million, ETH outflow was 30 million, and Coinbase premium index also turned negative. All of this indicates it’s going to drop.

But my suggestion is: wait for the low point to buy spot, don’t open shorts on futures. Because this wave of selling pressure hasn’t even reached more than half of last month’s—meaning people still don’t feel pain enough, so there won’t be a panic stampede; and also today hasn’t dropped to the 75k level I expected. I might be wrong.

$牛来 is unbelievably awesome. Yesterday I said it had no stories, and today it pulls one out on the spot.

I'm the clown—I just don't get it 😂😂😂

Today the whole market is focused on one thing: the August CPI at 20:30 tonight. The market expects core CPI to rise 0.2% month-on-month.

1. If core CPI prints 0.3% or higher, the odds of a rate hike next week are essentially locked in. The PPI has already helped set the tone: year-on-year PPI came in at 5.4%, beating expectations. Monthly diesel jumped 24.1%, the 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.35%—the highest level since 2007—and CME moved the probability of a rate hike next week from 60% to 73%.

2. Oil prices are adding fuel to the fire as well: WTI has broken through 100 and Brent is above 105. Saudi Arabia’s August production is at the lowest level since 1990. Throughput at the Strait of Hormuz has been squeezed to below 2 million barrels per day, and even Houthi attacks have hit Red Sea port traffic.

3. The ECB already delivered a 25bp hike yesterday. The market is adjusting accordingly: $BTC has fallen below the 77.6k key line, $SOL has given up 100, and $HYPE has broken through 82.5...

My take: Don’t bet on direction before the CPI is released. If you’re holding spot positions, wait for the outcome. If you have futures contracts, try to reduce leverage as much as possible.

No surprise. Tonight at 19:00, the threshold is 246 points—once again, it’s just the old-coin airdrop. It’s not a mystery-box style, so it should be worth about 30U.

1. I don’t know what token it is, but Alpha’s card/token listing looks way lower than usual. Because over there, today they already received a new coin called XDP.

2. If tonight’s airdrop is the same one as the last time that wasn’t fully distributed—$CP —then it’ll be fun. It would mean the landlord’s granary has run out of stock, so they can only send it out right after it just got stocked in the warehouse 😂😂

3. Are a lot of brothers with 245 points getting stuck? If you want to grind an extra 1 point to reach next Monday’s threshold, it’s recommended to grind 3 more points, because An’an will anticipate your anticipation.

It’s not just Robinhood—hunting on every chain is extremely hard to turn a profit. The probability of winning at 0.9% is the win rate of the entire game.

1. When pump.fun first launched, and it was all the rage on the Solana chain for dog-hunting, I was riding the wave too. I hit several big winners, but in the end I still lost and exited with 50 <a>$SOL </a>.

2. After replaying my losses, I came up with 3 conclusions, realizing that dog-hunting is basically no different from gambling:

(1) There are too many meme coins launched every day. They have no fundamentals, and the hype spreads extremely fast. You basically only have about 3 minutes to decide whether to act. In essence, it’s not much different from gambling—there’s no real research you can do;

(2) I’ve also hit some big winners, but the probability is only about 20%. And it’s easy to “sell too early” because you need to double to get your money back. So most big winners end up making roughly a 3x and then selling before taking full advantage;

(3) If you keep playing, the money you earn will eventually get lost back because transaction fees are too high, and your mindset easily gets thrown off.

3. Take the Robinhood chain, for example. The ones that actually ran were only pons, pair, and hood—plus it helped kick off a wave of <a>$ARB </a>. The remaining nearly 400,000 token types never made it.

4. Of course, many friends are the type who learn through practice, and I support everyone going to try it too. Fill in my wallet invite code “ZG666” to save 30% on fees for you 😁😁😁

How to link: On the Binance app, go to the wallet homepage, tap “Invite” → tap “Enter invite code” → enter “ZG666” → confirm, and you’re all set.

$BTC has been trading in a range around 80k for about half a month. Today everyone is discussing again: will it return to 50k to pick you all up and let you get on board?

Personally, I still lean toward it going back to 50k, but my confidence is not that high:

1. Because I believe there will be a rate hike in September. A rate hike that’s higher than expected, along with the possibility of future hikes, could push BTC down to around 72k.

2. Next, it’s possible that a key bill gets rejected, making everyone realize that Cowen’s midterm election will most likely be a failure. The days of a crypto-friendly president will be over, and BTC could fall below 60k.

3. But my confidence isn’t that great, because Wall Street is not short on smart people. Right now, the probability of a rate hike is only 60%—which is just about 10% higher than flipping a coin. That suggests the chance of a rate hike really isn’t big.

4. Looking back at last year’s analysis, I realized the earlier estimates were actually fairly accurate. But I didn’t go all-in at 59k—I kept 25% of my position, expecting BTC to drop to 55k. That means I made another human-nature mistake: not being satisfied, and always expecting cheaper BTC.

Controlling human nature is very hard. You have to constantly review and reflect, and remind yourself to stay alert. Wishing us all strength!

$DEBIT A three-no coin is causing trouble again. Sure enough, only people who are ultra-three-no can pull it in 😂

1. Last night the overall market saw a pullback. The reason is that after oil prices broke above 100, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasuries’ risk-free rate rose to 4.84%, which was bearish for the market. However, the assets that fell the hardest were those “shitty” altcoins—$DOGE , while the more core assets such as $BTC and $ETH remained relatively resilient.

Today the long/short liquidation map looks fairly sparse. The reasons are that after yesterday’s long/short liquidations, and with today being special (CPI data day), most participants choose to wait and observe first. My estimate is that during today’s daytime, the market will mainly trade in a range of 77,300–79,300.

2. What’s more important today is the CPI data at 20:30 tonight. Here’s a reference standard for everyone:

If core CPI ≤ 0.2%, it means inflation stickiness is easing, expectations for rate hikes are cooling, which is positive for Bitcoin. If core CPI > 0.2%, it means inflation has rebounded, the probability of rate hikes rises, which is negative for Bitcoin.

My view is that it will land right around 0.2%, causing the market to churn and leaving the suspense to be carried into the FOMC rate decision meeting on September 16.

3. Last night, the Meme coin issued by the son of former U.S. President Biden has already dropped by 99%. The final outcome for this coin is to go to zero. This morning, his foundation’s account was also banned. This shows the market is disgusted by his predatory behavior. #美国10年期美债收益率创2023年11月新高 #布伦特原油突破100美元

Brothers, I don’t recommend choosing $牛来 for hedging. You can choose $CRCL and others.

1. When I posted yesterday, I recommended Bull to you, because I had an expectation that it would have strong performance in the spot market. So I thought it would most likely go up. That’s why buying Bull and hedging it, in my view, could succeed.

In fact, it did succeed. From the 0.095 when I posted to a peak of 0.14. For the hedge, you only needed a 7% move up—it gave 40%.

2. But today it’s not like that anymore, because the spot-market expectation has already played out. Over the next few days, it’s likely to be mostly profit-taking/stop-loss liquidation by stuck positions. The coin price should keep falling, so hedging with it won’t be able to earn 10u profit.

3. I recommend $CRCL because on the 16th it will launch its own mainnet, Arc. That’s like a starting point for its settlement ecosystem. If that ecosystem develops well, it could directly change the valuation logic of CRCL. So I estimate there may be some short-term speculation and volatility in CRCL over the next few days. If you hedge with it, it should be easier to succeed.

4. My thinking is for reference only. If you already have the ability to hedge with selected tokens, then follow your own judgment.

Today I saw a data comparison and it made Long Er feel so pitiful:

It’s the same kind of company borrowing money to buy crypto. MicroStrategy borrowed money to buy $BTC and has an unrealized profit of 2.4 billion; Bitmine borrowed money to buy $ETH and is sitting on an unrealized loss of 5.192 billion 😂😂😂

We still need to buy Long Yi, brothers—no matter it’s the privacy coin $ZEC , or the Dog-Killer ecosystem, or a DEX, or whatever else…

The new round of the 10u Titan event is here again. Last round’s reward was 27u per person, so we recommend you join this one too.

1. The 10u Titan玩法 works like this: as long as your wallet’s meme trading profits exceed 10u during the event period, you can share a total reward pool of 20,000u.

2. How to make wallet profits exceed 10u? You can buy contract-based tokens like $牛来 . Put 200u into buying “牛,” then set a limit-sell order at 215u; meanwhile, open a 200u short position on the exchange for hedging. This way, you’ll only lose a little in trading fees and can achieve a wallet profit of 10u.

3. If you haven’t bound an invitation code yet, be sure to do it in advance—you can save 30% on fees.

How to bind: On the Binance App, go to the Wallet home page, tap "Invite" → tap "Enter invitation code" → enter "ZG666" and confirm. That’s it.

Last week the “dog-catching” on the Robinhood chain went viral—pair and pons both saw 100x gains, and even $ARB rose along with it by 100%.

But I didn’t post anything. Last week a few group members also asked me what they should buy, and I didn’t recommend anything.

Why? Because I genuinely don’t believe it can make money.

Last Spring Festival, when “dog-catching” on Solana was at its hottest, I lost all 100 of $SOL in just two months. Now the same kind of story is showing up on the Robinhood chain too.

380,000 people are “dog-catching” on Robinhood; as of now, 95% of users are losing money. Only 3,504 users have made more than 1,000u, accounting for 0.9%.

If I were to play on Robinhood, let’s not even talk about whether I could become one of the 0.9%. Even if I could, if my position of $BTC fluctuated by even a little, it could swing by 1,000u. Is it really worth me staying up late, not sleeping, and sitting there staring at the charts every day?😂

Also, I believe that as time goes on, the proportion of profitable trades will keep getting lower. Because it doesn’t fear you winning—it only fears you not playing.

There will be a new airdrop for $CNPY today, estimated at 30,000 spots, with the threshold likely around 232 points, and the expected time is 20:00 tonight. Does anyone still have points left? I suggest not overcommitting:

1. Yesterday I posted asking everyone to trade eMeme to earn the extra 5 points, but unfortunately it didn’t get much traffic, so probably not many people saw it.

If you haven’t done it yet, remember to finish it before Wednesday, because it ends on Thursday. Also, this time the point-boosting task requires paying fees to Binance, so you should link your Binance wallet invite code in advance, which can save 30% on fees.

How to link it: in the Binance App, go to the Wallet home page, tap "Invite" → tap "Enter invite code" → enter "ZG666" and confirm, and that’s it.

2. For today’s airdrop, I don’t recommend overcommitting. The project’s total token supply is 560 million, with 11 million tokens (2%) given to Binance and 5 million tokens (1%) given to the other side, so the selling pressure is quite significant.

3. Also, the project team has shared very little information. As a project that has raised 8.5 million in funding, it’s surprisingly impossible to even find the tokenomics. I’m starting to doubt whether the investment is really reliable.

Damn, $CP is a joke, and I’m stuck holding the bag.

Yesterday, as soon as the locked Launchpool position next door unlocked, basically everyone dumped and ran. The liquidity is so trash that just a few million can knock it down by -30%, so there’s basically nothing to play for anymore. This coin is basically one I’m stuck holding.

What the project team says about CodeXero supposedly processing 3 billion AI tokens and supporting 25,000 dApps probably isn’t reliable.

Especially since Binance still holds 2% of the supply, I’m not counting on the project team to pump it. I’ll hold for another 2 weeks and take a shot at some good news like getting listed on a Korean exchange. If nothing changes after 2 weeks, I’ll sell this trash.

The trend of $CP is much weaker than I expected, and I'm still holding my airdrop 😂

Since it had the courage to abandon the usual “Alpha airdrop - futures - spot - Korean exchange” trading route and instead chose spot on the other side, I thought it was trying to conserve supply and pump it...

But the price action ended up like this? There’s neither real buying pressure nor liquidity; it’s basically just become cannon fodder. I don’t even know what it’s doing.

$DASH is the third wave in the privacy coin rally, and very likely the last short-term wave. Whoever takes over should think it through carefully.

Just look at the flow of funds and it becomes clear: first $ZEC rose, then XMR followed with another move up; only after that did DASH get its turn.

The meeting on the 3rd for DASH had already ended, but instead of falling, the coin price kept rising. The reason it did not play out as "good news fully priced in is bad news" is that this round was not driven by positive catalysts at all; it was driven by sector rotation.

Money used to buy DASH is, in essence, money that could not afford ZEC. This is a classic end-stage signal of a sector rally: the leader stagnates while the laggards surge in a frenzy.

DASH's own story is actually quite thin.