No rate hike.
But the most eye-catching thing in this FOMC meeting isn’t that the interest rate remains at 3.5%—3.75%; it’s that the vote shifted from 12:0 last time to 9:3 this time.
Three people want to directly add 25 basis points.
The economic, employment, and inflation assessments in the statement are basically unchanged from the last time: the economy hasn’t fallen over, jobs haven’t deteriorated, and inflation hasn’t returned to 2%.
That’s a bit awkward.
To cut, there’s no reason; to raise, you still need the data to give you the nerve.
So don’t interpret “no rate hike” as good news. It’s more like the door wasn’t shut—but three people are already standing at the threshold.
But the most eye-catching thing in this FOMC meeting isn’t that the interest rate remains at 3.5%—3.75%; it’s that the vote shifted from 12:0 last time to 9:3 this time.
Three people want to directly add 25 basis points.
The economic, employment, and inflation assessments in the statement are basically unchanged from the last time: the economy hasn’t fallen over, jobs haven’t deteriorated, and inflation hasn’t returned to 2%.
That’s a bit awkward.
To cut, there’s no reason; to raise, you still need the data to give you the nerve.
So don’t interpret “no rate hike” as good news. It’s more like the door wasn’t shut—but three people are already standing at the threshold.