$DEXE shorts pay bulls 1% per hour.
First, admit a mistake.
Last week I said here that I thought $9 was an important support for $DEXE , and that the bulls should be able to hold their ground there. Today the result is that spot has fallen to $3.45—down 23% already.
$9 held for a moment, then did nothing. My call was completely wrong. There’s nothing to argue.
Alright, after admitting it, let’s talk about the current data.
Spot price: $3.45, 24h change: -23.5%
24h high: $5.03, low: $3.40
Funding rate: -1.02%, settled once per hour
This funding rate has been staying at those levels for several settlement cycles in a row. The 14:00 settlement was -1.14%, 15:00 was -1.26%, 16:00 was -1.04%, and now it’s still expected to be -1.02%. All four settlements were worse than -1%.
The shorts are pressing against a hard ceiling. They believe $DEXE will keep falling, so they’d rather pay 1% of their position every hour just to maintain short exposure at flat risk. This cost pressure is real—not a small number.
But there’s a reversal risk here. Whenever price stops falling—just a sideways pause, even—these shorts that have been paying high “rent” become the target for a squeeze.
Today the 24h low touched $3.40 and then stopped, but I can’t tell whether this lower wick was truly a test of support or just a handoff/rotation.
$5 is the next key level.
From the spot price of $3.45 to $5 requires a +45% rally. If price gets there, the shorts’ stop-loss chain gets triggered, and the rebound can move very quickly.
If $5 can’t hold, then below $3 is a blank on the map—shorts will keep being smug.
I have no position. I’m standing on the sidelines, watching. I’m not confident in either direction, so I won’t bet.
The only thing that’s certain is that a funding rate of above -1% for four consecutive times tells you that the long-versus-short battle is still ongoing here—no clear winner yet.
I got $9 wrong. Come back on 7/26 and look at how it trades around the $5 level—let the data answer.
First, admit a mistake.
Last week I said here that I thought $9 was an important support for $DEXE , and that the bulls should be able to hold their ground there. Today the result is that spot has fallen to $3.45—down 23% already.
$9 held for a moment, then did nothing. My call was completely wrong. There’s nothing to argue.
Alright, after admitting it, let’s talk about the current data.
Spot price: $3.45, 24h change: -23.5%
24h high: $5.03, low: $3.40
Funding rate: -1.02%, settled once per hour
This funding rate has been staying at those levels for several settlement cycles in a row. The 14:00 settlement was -1.14%, 15:00 was -1.26%, 16:00 was -1.04%, and now it’s still expected to be -1.02%. All four settlements were worse than -1%.
The shorts are pressing against a hard ceiling. They believe $DEXE will keep falling, so they’d rather pay 1% of their position every hour just to maintain short exposure at flat risk. This cost pressure is real—not a small number.
But there’s a reversal risk here. Whenever price stops falling—just a sideways pause, even—these shorts that have been paying high “rent” become the target for a squeeze.
Today the 24h low touched $3.40 and then stopped, but I can’t tell whether this lower wick was truly a test of support or just a handoff/rotation.
$5 is the next key level.
From the spot price of $3.45 to $5 requires a +45% rally. If price gets there, the shorts’ stop-loss chain gets triggered, and the rebound can move very quickly.
If $5 can’t hold, then below $3 is a blank on the map—shorts will keep being smug.
I have no position. I’m standing on the sidelines, watching. I’m not confident in either direction, so I won’t bet.
The only thing that’s certain is that a funding rate of above -1% for four consecutive times tells you that the long-versus-short battle is still ongoing here—no clear winner yet.
I got $9 wrong. Come back on 7/26 and look at how it trades around the $5 level—let the data answer.