Many people say that the best time to buy is when prices drop, but this applies more to investment than to trading.
In trading, what works best is to follow the trend, entering when the market has already shown direction. Classic examples:
MACD turning positive
Short moving average crossing the long
K line crossing the D in KDJ
Oscillators like RSI or Williams %R help to understand if the asset is overbought or oversold, but they do not serve to predict bottoms or tops — they provide context.
Most trades go wrong. In trend systems, the accuracy rate usually ranges between 35% and 40%.
This is not a flaw. What matters is the payoff: when correct, the gain is usually 3 times greater than the loss.
Losses are frequent, but small. Gains are rare, but large.
This type of system also helps to escape bear markets, as it exits when the trend reverses.
The ideal timeframe depends on the objective. For swing trading, 4-hour to daily charts usually work better, as they reduce noise and favor longer trades.
Another little-discussed point is the cycle of cryptocurrencies, which historically revolves around 4 years. Years like 2014, 2018, and 2022 were crash years. If the pattern repeats, 2026 could be a difficult year.
During the bear market, the best strategy is often to stay quiet:
capital in stablecoins
earn interest
few well-selected trades
In a bull market, the most common mistake is to flip the portfolio too much. Those who sell early often end up buying back at a higher price.
In the end, it is not about predicting the market, but about understanding the regime and adapting to it.
