Whales are aggressively buying HYPE during the downtrend, with a total accumulated value exceeding 21.5 million USD around the current price range, indicating that the selling pressure near support shows signs of being absorbed.
The buying data of large holders, the outflow of funds from exchanges, and the cooling leverage status are converging around the 22–24 USD range. This does not guarantee an immediate reversal, but it could significantly alter the risk profile as prices approach support.
MAIN CONTENT
Whales accumulated HYPE over 21.5 million USD as prices retreated to the 22–24 USD range, indicating confidence rather than chasing the uptrend.
Prolonged negative spot netflow implies that the available selling supply on the exchange is shrinking, making prices more sensitive to demand.
The long position of top traders and stable funding indicate that leverage 'reset', reducing volatility risk due to liquidations.
Whales absorb selling pressure when HYPE retreats to the 22–24 USD support range.
Large wallets have significantly bought HYPE even during the decline, raising total accumulation to over 21.5 million USD around the current price range, thereby weakening downward pressure near support.
In 2 months, a group of whales accumulated 427,441 HYPE worth 11.58 million USD at an average price of 27.09 USD. In just 5 days, another wallet bought an additional 398,830 HYPE worth about 10 million USD around 25.22 USD.
Notably, buying activity occurs as prices slide back to the 22–24 USD range, rather than during the expansion phase of the uptrend. This behavior often reflects 'conviction buying' rather than momentum buying.
Additionally, some accumulation is happening at higher price levels than the current ones but is still being held. This suggests that downward selling pressure has been absorbed to some extent, rather than amplified.
However, whale accumulation does not necessarily mean an immediate reversal. The data mainly indicates that the support area is becoming 'harder', thus changing the risk/reward ratio when prices are close to the bottom of the trading range.
The descending wedge pattern of HYPE is approaching a decision point.
HYPE is narrowing within a clear descending wedge, with prices sticking closely to the lower edge around 22.26 USD, usually signaling weakening downward momentum and possibly preparing for a structural breakout.
The descending wedge structure often reflects weakening selling pressure, not a strong continuation of the downtrend. Currently, prices remain within a compression range, increasing the likelihood of an explosive move when the pattern completes.
RSI at 35.26, while the average line of RSI is nearly 34.12, indicates an oversold state but no clear new downward expansion yet. This aligns with the 'slowdown' context of the sellers.
Recent candles have created shallower lows compared to previous declines from 48 USD and 35.92 USD. This change in slope often implies that sellers are gradually losing control over time.
However, resistance remains layered. The first reaction point is near 29.94 USD, while the wider breakout area is close to 35.92 USD. Therefore, confirmation signals still depend on breaking out of the wedge and maintaining momentum at these levels.
In the current context, the probability of an explosive move is leaning more towards the upside, but it is only 'triggered' when the structure is decisively resolved.
Negative spot netflow indicates that the selling supply on the exchange is shrinking.
Negative netflow on the spot exchange indicates that HYPE is being withdrawn from the exchange even as prices drop, implying that holders are reducing immediate selling intentions and liquidity supply is tending to shrink.
On December 23, HYPE recorded a net outflow of about -971,000 USD, extending the prolonged net withdrawal trend. This signals support for the accumulation story, not just based on price movements.
In previous stages, the outflow level was even deeper, exceeding -30 million USD to -50 million USD, indicating that a significant distribution process may have occurred strongly. Importantly, netflow has not yet turned positive despite weak prices.
When assets leave the exchange during a decline, the available supply ready to sell typically decreases. This does not create an immediate reversal but makes prices more sensitive to any small shifts from demand.
Combined with the narrowing descending wedge, once the structure is broken, even moderate buying pressure can create a larger price reaction than usual due to 'diminished' selling supply on the exchange.
Top traders on Binance still lean towards long but not overwhelmingly so.
The position of top traders on Binance is skewed towards long with a ratio of 61.65%, indicating that expectations for upward reactions still exist even though HYPE prices are weak around 24 USD.
As of December 23, 61.65% of top trader accounts hold long positions and 38.35% hold short positions, bringing the long/short ratio to about 1.61. The important point is that this trend remains consistent even when prices are low, rather than fleeing from long positions.
However, the level of skew has not shown the 'overcrowded' state often seen in previous extreme bullish phases. The ratio remains below excessively optimistic thresholds, implying controlled confidence.
In the context of whale accumulation and reduced supply on exchanges, the long inclination of professional traders adds an extra layer of 'buffer' against downside risk, but it is still necessary to monitor reactions at resistance levels when the wedge pattern is broken.
Stable Funding OI-weighted shows that leverage pressure has 'cooled down'.
Funding rate OI-weighted is at a slightly positive level of 0.0047% and has not surged, indicating that leverage has been reset after a period of forced position closures, reducing volatility risk due to liquidations.
Previously, funding had dropped sharply below -0.02%, often associated with forced unwind events. The absence of a further drop in funding implies that the 'leverage liquidation' phase may have passed.
This balance is important as it limits volatility due to chain liquidations. At the same time, when funding is neutral, spot flows tend to have a 'cleaner' impact on price direction.
Therefore, if HYPE breaks the descending wedge pattern, the upward move may occur with less 'friction' from the derivatives market. In many historical contexts, funding cooling often appears before structural reversal phases, though it is not always the case.
The signal cluster converges at a critical area, but confirmation remains a mandatory condition.
HYPE is at a pivotal point as whale accumulation, reduced supply on exchanges, stable leverage, and narrowing descending wedges all coincide, making the technical recovery scenario appear more favorable compared to a deep slowdown.
The signal synthesis shows that the risk of slowdown is encountering greater 'resistance' near support, rather than easily sliding deeper. However, the market still needs confirmation through price action: breaking the wedge structure and surpassing important reaction zones.
Without confirmation, prices may still oscillate within the compression range or retest the lower edge. Conversely, when the structure resolves upwards, the current supply-demand sensitivity may cause larger response ranges.
Final observation
Accumulation activity by whales and declining supply on exchanges are weakening downward pressure near important support.
Leverage cooling down and the narrowing descending wedge are raising the probability of a recovery phase due to 'relief', provided that prices give confirmation signals of breaking the structure.
Frequently asked questions
What does it mean for whales to buy HYPE during a decline?
Whales buying when prices slide back to the 22–24 USD range usually indicates they see this as an attractive price area to accumulate. This can help absorb selling pressure and reduce the risk of a rapid slowdown, though it does not guarantee an immediate reversal.
What signals is the descending wedge pattern on HYPE sending?
The descending wedge reflects weakening selling power as the volatility range narrows. If prices break above the wedge and maintain momentum, the probability of recovery increases; if not broken, prices may continue to compress or retest the lower edge.
What does negative netflow of HYPE on the spot exchange indicate?
Negative netflow means that the amount of HYPE withdrawn from exchanges exceeds that deposited, often indicating that investors are less inclined to sell immediately. When the available supply ready to sell shrinks, prices may react more strongly to minor changes in demand.
Is the long/short ratio of top traders reliable for price forecasting?
The long/short ratio reflects the positioning bias of large trader groups, but it is not an absolute forecasting signal. It is useful when combined with other data such as whale accumulation, technical structure, and leverage conditions to assess risk.
What benefits does a stable funding rate bring for a recovery phase?
Stable and slightly positive funding suggests that leverage is not overly skewed, reducing volatility risk due to chain liquidations. As a result, if there is a breakout, volatility may be 'cleaner' and rely more on immediate supply-demand.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/vi-sao-ca-voi-gom-hyperliquid-luc-giam/
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