Let's talk about how BTC has been doing this past week. If you've been following the charts, you may have already noticed: it's been a roller coaster within a well-defined range.
The main idea in one sentence
Bitcoin has spent the week in a game of tension, moving between $87,800 and just over $90,000, while the whole market looks towards a huge derivatives event happening this Friday, December 26.
The price: A lateral rise and fall
After a spike last week, BTC tried to stay above $90,000 but couldn't. Since then, the price has been going around, searching for meaning. At the time of writing this note, it is consolidating around $88,000. It is a classic consolidation movement, where the market seems to be holding its breath.
The big event: The expiration of options on "Boxing Day"
All the focus this week is on derivatives. This Friday, December 26 (known as "Boxing Day" in many countries), a historic volume of Bitcoin options contracts expires, with a value around $28,500 million. To give you an idea, this represents more than half of all open interest on the main derivatives platform.
These events often act as a magnet for price, and this time is no exception:
· There is long-term optimism: Data shows that there are many more bets on rises (call options) than on falls. In fact, calls outnumber puts by almost 3 to 1, and there are large bets concentrated on targets of $100,000 and beyond.
· But there is also a lot of short-term defense: At the same time, many traders are hedging against possible falls. There has been a significant movement of defensive trades towards January, suggesting that while some are covering the immediate risk of year-end, they remain cautious about what comes next.
The context: Christmas and less liquidity
To complete the picture, we are in the middle of the holiday season. This means that there are fewer people trading and, therefore, less liquidity in the market. Under these conditions, price movements can be more abrupt or exaggerated, although it is more difficult for a strong and sustained trend to start.
What does this mean for you?
If you are an entrepreneur or trader in the space, this is a week to keep calm and perspective. The market is in a tactical pause, defined more by the mechanics of derivatives and the calendar than by a fundamental change.
· For a bullish impulse: We need to see if BTC can close sustainably above the resistance of $90,250.
· For a bearish scenario: The key is whether it loses important support in the range of $87,800 - $88,000.
In summary, we are in a moment of transition. The big unknown is how the market will react once this massive expiration on Friday passes. It could relieve pressure and provide more clarity for the last days of the year.
Stay alert, avoid excessive panic in these days and remember that sometimes the best thing is to observe.
