Every year-end, we see a familiar scene: Goldman Sachs' prediction of the annual growth of the US stock index at the end of last year once again severely missed the mark, with deviations often astonishing.

The same has happened in the crypto world, where the grandiose statements from major institutions about BTC's year-end price have also almost all fallen flat, with the margin of error even more shocking.

Many people seem to have long forgotten a basic truth: among all things in the world, only pure "inorganic substances" can be completely quantified, achieving stable and reliable predictions.

Once the variable of "human" is added to the system, predictions transform from rigorous physical problems into a narrative game full of uncertainties.

If one continues to blindly pursue accurate predictions, it will ultimately lead to frequent mistakes.