The current market is in a state that can easily lead to illusions of recovery. Many people see the price bounce back and hastily conclude 'the bottom is in', but if everything is placed in the correct larger timeframe, the picture will be completely different.

Bitcoin: There Are Buyers Supporting the Price, But It Is Not the Bottom of the Cycle

Analysis on the Weekly Frame: Bear Structure Still Intact

On the weekly frame, Bitcoin being supported multiple times around the $80,000 mark clearly shows there is capital waiting to buy below. However, this does not mean that this is the bottom of the down cycle.

If we look back at the entire previous up cycle – from the 15,000 USD area to the peak of 126,000 USD – it can be affirmed:

👉 The major uptrend cycle has ended.

What the market is witnessing now is merely technical rebounds in a larger downtrend.

Structurally, there is a high probability that BTC still needs to break below 80,600 USD, moving towards the 7x.xxx zone to complete this cycle's adjustment process.

The current shape on the weekly frame is very similar to the early stage of 2022:

  • Many shooting star candles → there is defensive buying pressure

  • MACD creates a golden cross in the lower zone → selling pressure weakens
    ❌ But does not necessarily mean a trend reversal

History has proven: such rebounds usually return to the 0.618 Fibonacci level and then continue to drop sharply.

Short-Term Analysis on Daily Frame: Conditional Response

On the daily frame, the picture is clearer:

  • 84,400 USD: not broken → can be considered the starting point of the rebound

  • 94,000 USD: the first stubborn resistance
    👉 Whether to break or not entirely depends on the attitude of the cash flow

In the current context, the likelihood is high that the market will oscillate, extending the time instead of going straight down. The most reasonable scenario is:

  • The market is sideways – technical rebound

  • Extending until mid or late January next year

  • The maximum rebound level is estimated around 98,000 USD

Emphasizing again: this is the ceiling of the rebound, not the beginning of a new uptrend.

Ethereum: Short-Term Manipulation, Risks Still Persist

ETH during this period shows signs of price manipulation quite clearly, especially around significant psychological levels.

Survival Threshold: 3,000 USD

  • Holding firm at 3,000 → still a chance to rebound to 3,160

  • Losing 3,000 → falling into the "vacuum" zone below

If this level is lost, the area 2,940 and below has almost no significant support, and it is very difficult to expect a strong bounce before the zone of 2,775.

Although ETH has dropped continuously for 4 months, creating conditions for a short-term rebound, it is essential to understand:

  • December closing with a green candle does not mean strength

  • There is a high chance it is merely a stepping stone for January to continue going down

👉 A response may occur, but a reversal is not yet qualified

Summary: Don't Confuse a Response with a Reversal

  • BTC: is rebounding in a major downtrend

  • ETH: volatility is controlled, risks below are still wide

  • Time: the market needs more time and more fear before talking about the real bottom

During this period, the biggest mistake is not standing outside, but:

Believing that "the bottom has passed" just because the price has bounced up a few times.

The market has not ended the down cycle. It is merely giving you more time to make mistakes – or to patiently survive.