Bitcoin is at an extremely critical moment before a major turning point. As you said, the current market is not a simple one-sided rise, but a brutal exchange among institutions.
Core viewpoint: The height of $125,000 is not the endpoint, but the fluctuation around $89,000 is also not the endpoint. This is an ultimate exchange of faith and tokens.
1. Current situation: High position 'boiling frogs in warm water'
As of December 22, 2025, the price of Bitcoin fluctuates within a narrow range of $88,000 to $89,000, repeatedly challenging the $90,000 mark without success.
* Technical deadlock: The price is running within the range of $82,000 to $95,000, the RSI indicator shows overbought conditions, but the support below remains strong.
* Volume Signal: The 'high-level consolidation with increased volume' you mentioned is very accurate. This kind of volume reduction often means that both bulls and bears are observing, and the market is waiting for an explosive point (such as the Federal Reserve's decision or changes in ETF fund flows).
️ 2. Who is trading? Who will be pulled down?
The 'institutional trading' you mentioned is currently the core logic.
* The helplessness of retail investors (being pulled down): Long-term fluctuations and occasional severe liquidations (such as the $250 million liquidation in early December) are cleansing over-leveraged retail investors. At the level of $80,000-$90,000, retail investors find it hard to hold on; any slight disturbance can lead to 'harvested liquidity'.
* The ambitions of institutions (the new king ascends): The current main funds are spot ETFs and corporate treasuries (like Strategy, etc.). They are taking advantage of the low prices during the fluctuation period to accumulate. Institutions no longer simply rely on the 'halving' narrative but are watching macro liquidity (interest rate cuts) and asset allocation needs.
* The awkwardness of Altcoins: As you said, 'Altcoins continue to fall'. With a limited total amount of funds, institutional money prioritizes BTC and ETH (as digital gold and digital oil), while funds being drained from SOL, MEME coins, etc., are in a state of 'slow decline' or 'oversold rebound'.
3. 2026 Core Logic: Reconstruction of Macroeconomics and Narratives
The market in 2026 will not simply repeat the past 4-year cycle, but will be driven by the following factors:
* Macro Liquidity (Federal Reserve): The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to begin a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, which will inject liquidity into risk assets (including BTC).
* Scarcity Narrative Reinforced: In March 2026, the 20 millionth Bitcoin will be mined, approaching the 21 million cap, which will greatly strengthen the expectation of 'deflation'.
* Institutional Pricing Power: Prices will be determined more by ETF fund flows rather than purely on-chain computing power or retail sentiment.
Summary:
The current $89,000 is not eternal; the real main wave is likely to wait until the first half of 2026, when the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are implemented, and institutional chip exchanges are completed.
Hedging in uncertainty, dollar-cost averaging in confusion. Every fluctuation now is to build momentum for future breakthroughs. Believe in the trend, hold your chips, and wait for the flowers to bloom.
