Is Bitcoin About to Choose a Direction? A Look at Analysts' Predictions for the 2026 BTC Market

After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the Bank of Japan's rate hike, the crypto market remains in a volatile range. Institutions and traders have differing views on the future market; some are optimistic about the first half of 2026, while others expect short-term fluctuations, and some believe there could be further declines. (Background: Michael Saylor again calls for Bitcoin to reach one million, ten million dollars: waiting for the day when Strategy holds 5% or 7% of BTC total supply) (Supplementary background: Bitcoin community warns: Quantum defense upgrades may take five to ten years to respond) Since the Federal Reserve's rate cut and the Bank of Japan's rate hike policy came into effect, the crypto market has remained in a fluctuating range, with the fear index struggling to rise but still below 30. After the black swan event this year, how do market traders and institutions view the subsequent market trend? Wintermute trading strategist: Bitcoin may fluctuate in the range of $86,000 to $92,000. Wintermute trading strategist Jasper De Maere, in an interview with CoinDesk, believes Bitcoin may be trapped in a fluctuation range of $86,000 to $92,000. Jasper warns that it is not advisable to overinterpret technical indicators at the moment and expects that due to year-end portfolio adjustments and tax factors, there will be more profit-taking behavior in the next two weeks. "People are closing positions for a slight breather... short-term rebounds will soon be sold off." He anticipates that Bitcoin will continue to consolidate sideways until a new catalyst appears, one of which could be the large options expiration in late December. Although Jasper has not asserted that the market has hit bottom, he stated that signs of a bottom are starting to show. "I feel we are at the point of maximum pain. In the short term, I definitely believe the market is oversold." IOSG founding partner: Optimistic about the market in the first half of 2026. IOSG founding partner Jocy posted on social media, "2025 is the darkest year for the crypto market and the dawn of the institutional era. This is a fundamental shift in market structure, and most people are still viewing the new era with the logic of the old cycle. Reviewing the 2025 crypto market, we see a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation, with core data showing institutional holdings at 24%, retail exit at 66%, and the crypto market turnover completed. Market dominance has shifted from retail to institutions. Institutions continue to build positions at high levels not by looking at prices but by the cycle. Retail is selling, and institutions are buying. This is not the top of a bull market, but a period of institutional accumulation. The mid-term elections will occur in November 2026. The historical pattern is that policies precede election years, so the investment logic should be: the first half of 2026 is a policy honeymoon period and institutional allocation, optimistic about the market; the second half of 2026 will see increased political uncertainty and volatility. However, risks still exist, such as Federal Reserve policies, a strong dollar, possible delays in market structure legislation, continued selling from long-term holders, and uncertainty about mid-term election results. But the other side of risk is opportunity; when everyone is bearish, it is often the best time to position. – Short-term (3-6 months): Fluctuation in the range of $87,000 - $95,000, institutions continue to build positions – Mid-term (first half of 2026): Driven by policy and institutions, target $120,000 - $150,000 – Long-term (second half of 2026): Increased volatility, watch for election results and policy continuity. This is not the top of a cycle but the starting point of a new cycle. 2025 marks the acceleration of the institutionalization process in the crypto market. Although BTC's annual return is negative, ETF investors show strong HODL resilience. On the surface, 2025 appears to be the worst for crypto, but in reality: the largest supply turnover, the strongest willingness for institutional allocation, the clearest policy support, and the most comprehensive infrastructure improvement. Although prices fell by 5%, ETF inflows were $25 billion, optimistic about the market in the first half of 2026. Key points to watch in 2026 include: legislative progress on market structure bills, the possibility of expanding strategic Bitcoin reserves, and policy continuity after the mid-term elections. In the long term, the improvement of ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarification will lay the foundation for the next round of increases. When the market structure fundamentally changes, old valuation logic will fail, and new pricing power will be rebuilt. ### Galaxy Digital research director: Bitcoin may still reach new highs in 2026. Galaxy Digital research director Alex Thorn stated, "Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. The trend in 2026 is too chaotic to predict, but it is still possible for Bitcoin to hit a historical high in 2026. Currently, the pricing in the options market shows that by the end of June 2026, the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $70,000 or rising to $130,000 is almost equal; by the end of 2026, the probability of dropping to $50,000 or rising to $250,000 is similarly close. Such a wide price range reflects the market's high uncertainty regarding the medium to short-term outlook. Data analyst Murphy: On-chain data sentiment is recovering. Data analyst Murphy stated that on-chain data observed signs of sentiment recovery. The number of addresses transitioning from "holding BTC" to "completely liquidated" surged between November 13 and 25, during which BTC prices fell the fastest and the most. The large number of liquidated addresses reflects the panic and pessimism of market sentiment. However, from December 1 to 18, BTC repeatedly tested the bottom, and the number of liquidated addresses began to decrease, aligning perfectly with the bullish behavior and sentiment changes shown in the futures market. Santiment founder: Bitcoin could still drop to around $75,000. Santiment founder Maksim Balashevich stated that social media has not yet shown sufficient panic sentiment to confirm a market bottom, and Bitcoin could still drop to around $75,000, indicating about a 14.77% decline from current levels. Balashevich explained that many users are still optimistic that the downward trend will reverse in the short term, but this situation usually does not occur when a true market bottom forms. Related reports: Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will bottom and rebound in January: The Federal Reserve will indirectly implement QE, and I have gone all-in with 90% of my assets. Fidelity analyst: Bitcoin in 2026 is a "fallow year," support range of $65,000 to $75,000. Nick Carter: Bitcoin's quantum attack is "just an engineering challenge," with 1.7 million BTC waiting to be seized. "Is Bitcoin about to choose a direction? A look at analysts' predictions for the 2026 BTC market." This article was first published in BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).