On-chain perpetual contract exchange Lighter has opened Airdrop registration. The current pre-market price is approximately 3.75, corresponding to an FDV of 3.75 billion dollars, while the latest valuation from the last round was 1.5 billion dollars. The author compiled Hyperliquid's market cap to revenue ratio (PS Ratio), as well as the Lighter PS Ratio calculated using VC valuations and pre-market valuations, suggesting that the current pre-market price of Lighter may not be a good entry point. On the other hand, Lighter's trading volume divided by the holding amount ratio is much higher than Hyperliquid, indicating that there may be some inflated volume.
Lighter Airdrop submission page has been opened
Click on Points in Lighter, then enter the Airdrop page. One main account (pre-filled address) can add four sets of addresses, making a total of five addresses including the main account. Users must submit addresses on the Airdrop page and set the percentage weight for each address. The form will close at 10:00 PM Taiwan time on December 26, Friday. If there is no second Lighter account, submitting the current address alone is also acceptable.
Lighter's volume manipulation is questionable, and the PS Ratio has little room left.
Currently, Lighter tokens have started pre-market trading on Whales Market, with a price of 3.75 before the deadline, corresponding to an FDV of approximately $3.75 billion. For reference, Lighter's latest financing valuation is $1.5 billion.
(0 transaction fee cryptocurrency exchange, how Lighter supported by Peter Thiel replicates the business model of Robinhood)
The leading player in the same field, Hyperliquid, has an FDV of about $24.8 billion and an annualized revenue of about $781 million. DeFiLlama shows that Lighter's annualized revenue is about $15.4 million (DeFiLlama's algorithm is to multiply nearly thirty days of income by 12, which is more favorable for Lighter driven by airdrop incentives). The organized market capitalization to revenue ratio PS Ratio is as follows:
Hyperliquid: 31 times
Lighter (VC Valuation): 9.7 times
Lighter (Pre-market Valuation): 24 times
It can discover Lighter's pre-market price, and there may not be much room for upward movement. Coupled with the market sentiment still being pessimistic, it may not be a good entry point. As for some community claims: using Lighter's trading volume multiplied by Robinhood's PFOF, it can be calculated that if Lighter could negotiate a similar PFOF, the annual revenue would be approximately $474.5 million.
According to Perpetual Pulse data, Hyperliquid's trading volume/position ratio is about 3.3 times, while Lighter's is 24.5. The high trading volume of Lighter stands in stark contrast to its extremely low position volume. At a ratio of 24.59, its revenue expectations are severely inflated. If these trading volumes are mainly generated by intentional volume manipulation under the expectation of zero transaction fees or airdrops, then when converting to PFOF (Payment for Order Flow) in the future, institutions may be unwilling to pay high fees for these directionless and extremely short-term orders.
Unless these volume-manipulating users can be converted into real holding users in the future, the current pre-market valuation of $3.75 billion may face significant correction risks.
This article on Lighter's upcoming airdrop: Is a $3.7 billion valuation reasonable? Is now an opportunity or just catching the falling knife? First appeared in Chain News ABMedia.
