K线人生飞哥
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Summarize the current Bitcoin ETF holding costs of major institutions
First, let's look at the key ranges.
65,000 to 70,000, this small segment holds about 230,000 BTC, accounting for around 15% of all funds, which is a solid core cost area.
60,000 to 65,000 also has about 11% of the funds, which is a very solid support zone.
The entire range from 75,000 to 85,000 only accounts for less than 3% of the funds, which is almost empty.
Why is 65,000 to 70,000 considered a fortress? Because the earliest institutions that invested in ETFs have a large portion of their costs here. At the current price, they still have a profit of 30% to 40%. They have weathered all the pullbacks since the ETF launch without selling even when it reached 108,000. Do you think they would sell at 67,000? If it really gets close to that area, it is highly likely that institutions will start defending, and the buy orders will thicken.
However, 75,000 to 85,000 is completely different. There is no dense cost here; not many people feel they must defend it. Once it breaks below 85,000 and approaches 70,000, there is almost no buffer; the price can move quickly, not due to panic, but because there’s nothing below to catch it.
Another crucial data point: the part of the positions currently at a loss has spent more money than the profitable positions. Institutions have spent about 63 billion dollars on the currently lost coins, while the profitable part is only about 59 billion. This means that the money that came in at high prices is more than the money that truly bought at the bottom.
The surge in October 2024 towards 108,000 attracted the largest scale of high-priced funds into the market, and these people are now mostly underwater. Every time it fails to break above 100,000, this anxious group expands. Early investors have profit cushions, and the pullback feels insignificant; late investors are different; they not only have to provide explanations internally but also face redemption pressure from high-priced buying clients, which makes the structure itself very fragile.
So now I am only focusing on three price levels:
80,000 is the overall cost line; if it falls below this, more than 100 billion dollars in institutional positions will turn overall into losses, and emotions and public opinion will change.
75,000 to 85,000 is the air layer; whether moving up or down, it will move very quickly.
65,000 to 70,000 is the strongest structural support and the area where institutions will truly start to defend.
So everyone looking to buy the dip can focus on the cost areas near institutions.
First, let's look at the key ranges.
65,000 to 70,000, this small segment holds about 230,000 BTC, accounting for around 15% of all funds, which is a solid core cost area.
60,000 to 65,000 also has about 11% of the funds, which is a very solid support zone.
The entire range from 75,000 to 85,000 only accounts for less than 3% of the funds, which is almost empty.
Why is 65,000 to 70,000 considered a fortress? Because the earliest institutions that invested in ETFs have a large portion of their costs here. At the current price, they still have a profit of 30% to 40%. They have weathered all the pullbacks since the ETF launch without selling even when it reached 108,000. Do you think they would sell at 67,000? If it really gets close to that area, it is highly likely that institutions will start defending, and the buy orders will thicken.
However, 75,000 to 85,000 is completely different. There is no dense cost here; not many people feel they must defend it. Once it breaks below 85,000 and approaches 70,000, there is almost no buffer; the price can move quickly, not due to panic, but because there’s nothing below to catch it.
Another crucial data point: the part of the positions currently at a loss has spent more money than the profitable positions. Institutions have spent about 63 billion dollars on the currently lost coins, while the profitable part is only about 59 billion. This means that the money that came in at high prices is more than the money that truly bought at the bottom.
The surge in October 2024 towards 108,000 attracted the largest scale of high-priced funds into the market, and these people are now mostly underwater. Every time it fails to break above 100,000, this anxious group expands. Early investors have profit cushions, and the pullback feels insignificant; late investors are different; they not only have to provide explanations internally but also face redemption pressure from high-priced buying clients, which makes the structure itself very fragile.
So now I am only focusing on three price levels:
80,000 is the overall cost line; if it falls below this, more than 100 billion dollars in institutional positions will turn overall into losses, and emotions and public opinion will change.
75,000 to 85,000 is the air layer; whether moving up or down, it will move very quickly.
65,000 to 70,000 is the strongest structural support and the area where institutions will truly start to defend.
So everyone looking to buy the dip can focus on the cost areas near institutions.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.