The frenzy of 'bad news fully priced in': Why did the cryptocurrency market soar against the trend after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates?
On December 19th, Beijing time, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced a 25 basis point interest rate increase, raising the policy rate to 0.75%. Contrary to the market’s previous expectation of a 'tightening followed by a crash', Bitcoin and Ethereum surged strongly after a brief fluctuation, reaching above 88000 and 2980, respectively. This is not merely a market failure, but a result of the transformation of macro narratives, resonance of technical structures, and the psychology of 'bad news fully priced in', indicating that this round of the cryptocurrency market cycle may enter a more complex and prolonged structural bullish phase.
Yesterday, I was delayed by something for a day and the article was not updated. On the 18th, we suggested to short the Bitcoin in the range of 87800~89500, with an average short price around 88600. For Ethereum, short in batches at 2915~2960~3030. In the early hours of the 19th, this was validated, with Bitcoin touching a low of 84400 and Ethereum reaching a low of about 2770. We have achieved our second target of 2790, with a deviation of 20 points from the third target of 2750. So, today’s market has rebounded after hitting the bottom. How should we layout? Let’s first go to the market to find answers!