Sean Farrell (Fundstrat) stated that the difference in opinion with Tom Lee stems from different research frameworks and client goals: Farrell focuses on a portfolio with a high cryptocurrency weight (around 20% or more) and a more active strategy to outperform the market through multiple cycles.

He emphasizes that Tom Lee's approach is aimed at large asset managers, who typically allocate 1%–5% to BTC and ETH, prioritizing discipline and a long-term vision. Farrell also warns that the market is currently priced almost perfectly but still carries many macro risks.

MAIN CONTENT

  • Fundstrat has many analysts, independent research frameworks, and investment time horizons.

  • Tom Lee serves the group allocating BTC/ETH 1%–5%; Farrell serves the group with a cryptocurrency weight of around 20%+ and active rebalancing.

  • Farrell forecasts that there may be a rebound early in the year followed by a decline in the first half of the year, but still expects BTC and ETH to reach new highs before the end of the year.

Strategic differences: clients 1%–5% compared to 20%+ cryptocurrency

Farrell said the difference in opinion with Tom Lee reflects the client base and how the portfolio operates: 1%–5% BTC/ETH leaning towards long-term; 20%+ cryptocurrency leaning towards active rebalancing to outperform the market.

He stated that Fundstrat has many analysts, each with independent research frameworks and different investment time horizons, aiming to meet the goals of different client groups. Farrell's research focuses on portfolios with a high weight of cryptocurrency assets and uses a relatively aggressive market operating strategy.

Meanwhile, Tom Lee's research mainly serves large asset management companies and investors who allocate only 1%–5% of assets to BTC and ETH. According to Farrell, this type of strategy requires high discipline and a long-term perspective to capture structural trends (long-term) and seek superior returns over time.

Short-term risks, expecting new highs before the end of the year

Farrell assesses that the market is being priced almost perfectly but risks remain; the baseline scenario is a rebound early in the year followed by a possible decline in the first half of the year, before creating positioning opportunities at the end of the year.

He said the cautious stance in the first half of the year is to manage risks, not to be entirely pessimistic. The risks mentioned include the possibility of a government shutdown, trade volatility, uncertainty about capital spending on AI, and the possibility of a change in Fed chair. He also noted that the spread of high-yield bond yields is narrowing, inter-market volatility is low, and recent fund flows have shown divergence.

Farrell stated that Bitcoin is currently valued in an unprecedented range. In the long term, ETF demand may improve as major brokerage firms participate; however, in the short term, it still faces pressure from early holders selling, pressure from miners, the possibility of MSTR being removed from the MSCI index, and the buyback (withdrawal) activity of funds. Nevertheless, he still expects Bitcoin and Ethereum to challenge new historic peaks before the end of the year.

Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/fundstrat-van-lac-quan-btc-eth-dinh-moi/

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