Value investing master Howard Marks recently expressed concerns about the employment prospects caused by AI, as AI saves a considerable amount of work time and will replace a large number of entry-level jobs. He also shared his own views, pointing out future work trends that may help everyone prepare in advance and plan for their own or their children's future direction.
AI can save 43% of work time, and in the future, 80% of jobs will be a combination of innovation and automation.
Markus first quoted the viewpoint of Joe Davis, the global chief economist and global investment strategy director of Vanguard Group:
"For most jobs—possibly four-fifths—the impact of artificial intelligence will be the result of a combination of innovation and automation, potentially saving people about 43% of the time they currently spend on work tasks." (Exponential View, September 3)
Max views artificial intelligence as a powerful labor-saving tool, but also feels concerned about the job prospects that arise from it. He worries about the future of those who lose their jobs due to artificial intelligence or cannot find work because of it.
AI accelerates GDP growth, which jobs will be rapidly replaced?
While optimists believe that "past technological advancements always create new job opportunities." Max frankly finds it hard to imagine where these job opportunities will come from. Optimists also state that "the positive impact of artificial intelligence on productivity will lead to a significant acceleration of GDP growth." In response, Max raised some specific objections:
The change in GDP can be understood as the change in working hours multiplied by the change in output per hour (i.e., productivity). The role of artificial intelligence in improving productivity means that the working hours required to produce the goods we need will decrease—meaning the number of workers required will also decrease.
Alternatively, from another perspective, the rapid increase in productivity may mean that more goods can be produced with the same labor force.
But if artificial intelligence leads to a large number of jobs disappearing, how will people afford the additional goods spawned by artificial intelligence?
Max believes that artificial intelligence is likely to replace a large number of entry-level employees, those who only handle clerical work without exercising judgment, and those junior lawyers who are buried in legal texts looking for precedents. It may even replace junior investment analysts who create spreadsheets and organize presentation materials. It is said that AI's ability to interpret MRI scans is stronger than that of the average doctor. Driving is one of the most common professions in the United States, and self-driving cars have also begun to become popular; so, what should the people currently driving taxis, luxury cars, buses, and trucks do?
The psychological impact on people: work provides not just a salary, but also life goals.
Max raises a point of psychological concern. Because what people gain from work is far more than just a salary. Work gives people the motivation to get out of bed, makes life more orderly, allows people to play an active role in society, gain self-esteem, and brings challenges, overcoming which can lead to a sense of fulfillment. How will these things be replaced? He worries that a large number of people will only receive welfare and do nothing all day. He is also concerned about the correlation between unemployment in the mining and manufacturing industries over the past few decades and the rise in drug addiction rates and a decrease in life expectancy.
Moreover, if a large number of junior lawyers, analysts, and doctors are laid off, where will we find the experienced professionals capable of solving problems that require decades of honed judgment and pattern recognition skills in the future?
Which jobs will not be eliminated by AI?
Max believes that jobs less likely to be replaced by AI in the future include:
Plumbers, electricians, and massage therapists—these are all physical labor.
Nurses earn more than doctors because they provide actual nursing services.
The best artists, athletes, doctors, lawyers, and (hopefully) the best investors.
Jobs that machines cannot perform, provide actual services, and require talent or insight are not easily replicable by artificial intelligence.
However, in the end, he also mentioned an interesting perspective. Joe Davis of Vanguard Group pointed out that by 2025, the number of people aged 65 and older in the U.S. will exceed any other year, and from now until 2035, about 16 million baby boomers will retire. Optimistically, can artificial intelligence fill this gap?
This article is reproduced with permission from: (Chain News)
Original title: (AI may trigger a tsunami of unemployment, what job list does Howard Marks suggest?)
Original author: Florence
‘AI may trigger a tsunami of unemployment! Value investing master Howard Marks reveals the future job recommendation list’ was first published in ‘Crypto City’
