Ethena’s recent price action has felt like a tug of war that never quite tips in one direction. On one hand, buyers have clearly shown up. A 15 million Buy Delta doesn’t happen by accident. That kind of imbalance tells you there were real bids stepping in, absorbing sell pressure that could have easily pushed the price lower. For a market that’s been under stress, that response matters. It shows that at least some participants believe value exists at these levels.
Still, price bounces don’t automatically mean trends have changed. Ethena did manage to recover on the daily chart, but that recovery sits on shaky ground. The broader structure hasn’t repaired itself yet. Momentum indicators continue to lean against the bulls, and that’s something traders tend to respect, even when short-term price action looks encouraging. The Directional Movement Index staying weak while negative momentum remains dominant suggests sellers haven’t fully stepped aside. The Stochastic Momentum Index sitting in negative territory only adds to that sense that this move higher may be more of a pause than a proper reversal.
At the same time, short-term volume data paints a slightly brighter picture. Over the past day, buy volume edged ahead of sell volume, with roughly 110 million in buys compared to about 95 million in sells. That difference isn’t massive, but it’s meaningful. It tells us that buyers weren’t just reacting to a wick lower; they were willing to transact size. This kind of flow often shows up near local lows, where the market starts testing whether sellers still have control.
Whales have played a big role in shaping this phase. Large orders have consistently appeared on spot markets, showing that bigger players haven’t gone quiet. Spot Taker CVD staying green for nearly a month is especially notable. When aggressive buyers dominate for that long, it usually reflects confidence, or at least conviction, from traders who aren’t afraid to move capital. That doesn’t guarantee higher prices, but it does mean demand hasn’t dried up.
Where things get uncomfortable is on the on-chain side. Ethena Labs has been moving a lot of tokens onto exchanges, and the market rarely ignores that kind of activity. Transfers to Bybit, FalconX, and Coinbase added up to more than 100 million ENA, worth around $20.9 million. Those are not casual movements. When that much supply heads to exchanges, traders naturally assume there’s a chance it could be sold, distributed, or used to provide liquidity.
Even if selling isn’t immediate, the psychological impact is real. Extra supply sitting on exchanges hangs over price like a cloud. It makes rallies harder to sustain because buyers know there’s potential sell pressure waiting above. In Ethena’s case, these deposits arrived while the asset was already in a weak technical position, which only amplifies the risk.
What’s interesting is that despite all of this, price hasn’t collapsed. Ethena dipped below $0.20 briefly, touched around $0.191, and then bounced. Buyers defended that level with enough strength to push price back above $0.21. That tells us the market still sees $0.20 as important. It’s not just a number on a chart anymore; it’s a line where buyers are willing to show up.
At the time of writing, ENA is trading around $0.2127, up modestly on the day but still down significantly over the past week. That contrast captures the mood perfectly. Short-term traders are willing to play the bounce, but longer-term confidence hasn’t returned. The market feels cautious, not convinced.
Whale behavior adds another layer of complexity. Data from CryptoQuant shows large average order sizes sticking around since mid-October. That suggests sustained interest from bigger players, even during periods of weakness. Sometimes this kind of behavior shows accumulation, with whales slowly building positions while price drifts or chops. Other times, it’s simply active trading around volatility. The truth is, you often don’t know which one it is until much later.
What makes this situation especially delicate is the timing. Ethena Labs’ exchange deposits come at a moment when the market is trying to stabilize, not break out. If even a portion of those tokens are sold into the market, they could easily overwhelm the current level of demand. That’s why upside attempts feel fragile. Every move higher runs into the question of whether new supply will appear.
From here, the path forward is fairly clear, even if the outcome isn’t. If buyers can continue to defend the $0.20 area and maintain steady spot demand, Ethena could grind higher and test levels around $0.24. That wouldn’t require euphoria, just consistency. On the other hand, if selling pressure increases or confidence fades, another break below $0.20 could open the door to deeper losses, with $0.18 becoming a realistic target.
Right now, Ethena sits in that uncomfortable middle ground where neither side has full control. Buyers are active, whales are involved, but the structure remains weak and supply risks are very real. Until one of those forces clearly wins out, price is likely to stay reactive, responding sharply to flows rather than following a clean trend.
In simple terms, Ethena isn’t dead, but it isn’t healthy either. The bounce shows life. The on-chain data shows risk. What happens next depends less on indicators and more on intent. If the tokens moved to exchanges stay there without heavy selling, the market may slowly regain confidence. If they start hitting the order books, the downside could come fast.
For now, Ethena is balancing on a thin edge, and the market knows it.
