A debate on X over seemingly conflicting bitcoin forecasts from Fundstrat analysts drew a response from Tom Lee, highlighting differing mandates and time horizons.
👉where to focus on:
X users flagged what appeared to be conflicting bitcoin outlooks from Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and Sean Farrell.
Lee endorsed a post arguing the views reflect different mandates and time horizons, not internal disagreement.
The episode highlights how public commentary can blur distinctions between short-term risk management and long-term macro views.
A debate on X over whether Fundstrat analysts are sending mixed signals on bitcoin intensified over the weekend, prompting a response from the firm’s co-founder that appeared to endorse a more nuanced explanation of the differing views.
According to screenshots shared on X, the document, which appears to be Fundstrat's internal 2026 crypto strategy guidance, warns of a "meaningful drawdown" in the first half of 2026. The report sets downside targets of Bitcoin (BTC) falling to $60,000-$65,000, Ether (ETH) dropping to $1,800-$2,000, and Solana (SOL) declining to $50-$75 before potentially presenting buying opportunities later in the year.
The material has not been publicly released by Fundstrat, and its authenticity has not been independently confirmed by Cointelegraph at the time of publication. However, multiple crypto-focused accounts, including Wu Blockchain, claim the document was distributed to internal clients.
Lee is a managing partner and the head of research at Fundstrat. The circulating 2026 crypto outline has been apparently written by Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at the firm.
Tom Lee calls ETH "grossly undervalued"
The circulating outlook stands in Contrast to statements Lee made on stage at Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai earlier this month. Speaking publicly, Lee said Bitcoin could reach $250,000 within months and called Ether at around $3,000 "grossly undervalued”
Lee argued that if Ether were to return to its eight-year average ratio against Bitcoin, its price could approach $12,000. A revisit of 2021 relative levels would imply prices near $22,000, while an ETH/BTC ratio of 0.25 would suggest valuations north of $60,000, according to Lee's presentation.
In November, Lee also claimed Ether is starting on the same path that saw Bitcoin's price multiply over 100 times since 2017. "We believe ETH is embarking on that same Supercycle," he said.
Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, says $BTC to $60k as base case, 1H 2026.
Fundstrat’s head, Tom Lee, says $BTC to ATH’s, even up to $200k, by end of Jan 2026.
👉Is this normal for funds to contradict each other within?
The juxtaposition quickly gained traction on X, with users questioning whether Fundstrat was contradicting itself or offering unclear guidance to clients.
That framing drew a detailed response from another X user, “Cassian” (@ConvexDispatch), who said he was a Fundstrat client and argued the debate was misleading. Cassian wrote that the firm’s senior figures operate with different mandates rather than a single unified forecast, distinguishing between long-term macro views, portfolio-level risk management and technical analysis.
According to the post, Farrell’s comments reflect a defensive positioning framework focused on drawdown risk, flows and cost bases, rather than a long-term bearish thesis on bitcoin. Cassian said Farrell had reduced crypto exposure within Fundstrat’s model portfolio as a risk-management decision, while remaining constructive on longer-term adoption trends beyond early 2026.
Lee’s role, by contrast, was described as more focused on macro liquidity cycles and structural shifts in markets, including the idea that institutional adoption and exchange-traded products are changing bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle dynamics. Technical analyst Mark Newton was also cited as operating independently, with views based strictly on chart structure rather than macro narratives.
Lee, who is also the chief investment officer at asset management firm Fundstrat Capital and the executive chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), appeared to acknowledge that explanation by responding, “Well stated,” to Cassian’s post on X, a move likely to be widely interpreted by market participants as a tacit agreement with the characterization.
While neither Lee nor Farrell has issued a formal public statement addressing the screenshots directly, Lee’s response suggested that the differing outlooks are not mutually exclusive.
At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading around $88,283, up about 0.5% over the past 24 hours, while the broader crypto market was up by the same amount.
