The Japanese government has just released the latest earthquake forecast, which sounds quite frightening. The report states that there is a 70% probability of a magnitude 7 or higher earthquake occurring underground in Tokyo within the next 30 years. If it really happens, the worst-case scenario could lead to 18,000 direct deaths, and due to water and power outages and deteriorating living conditions after the quake, the number of indirect deaths could be even higher, estimated to be between 16,000 and 41,000. Tokyo has many tall buildings and old houses, and if an earthquake occurs in winter when it is dry and windy, fires could spread very quickly; it is expected that two-thirds of the victims will die in the fire. The report also estimates that the earthquake could leave 8.4 million people homeless. However, compared to predictions made ten years ago, the number of deaths and losses has decreased, mainly because newly built houses are more earthquake-resistant.