2025.12.19 Bitcoin market analysis.

Getting to the essence.

1. Monthly Line. The monthly support is 82550. Last month it shot up and closed well. This month, as long as the monthly close doesn't break, there will definitely be a new trend. Now we can conclude that it's hard to break the close. You can enter the spot market here, maybe around 30-40%. Don't listen to others shouting about bears; looking at this indicator or that indicator is of little use. Structure is king. What are the results of the monthly and weekly lines, and what is the neckline? Has it been broken? No!

2. Weekly Line. In the previous three tests, the weekly support of 85179 dollars held strong. Now, in the middle of the trading, it's testing again. Today, there are negative impacts from the Japanese interest rate hike, so today's daily candlestick and this week's weekly close are exceptionally critical. The probability of breaking 80,000 is very low; today it may test the monthly support again.

3. Daily Line. The previous few lines have performed quite well, but the latest close isn't great; the upper shadow is too long. However, there is a good side—first, the weekly support still hasn't broken, and second, the bulls can already organize strength for a counterattack, even though they have been suppressed. In short, if the support doesn't break, you can't be bearish. After today, there won't be much news affecting the market. Even though news can't reverse the market, it still has some impact, which must be acknowledged.

It is recommended to buy spot—BTC, ETH, BNB can be entered in batches now. If you are still afraid of wolves in front and tigers behind, then it’s better to exit the crypto market; it’s not suitable for trading. BTC will definitely have a rebound, and my expectation for the height is around 120,000. Whether it can reach that, we will take it step by step. The timeline is roughly 1-3 months for the rise, 4 months for building the top, and in May, it will start a downward trend to end the bull market. In the future, I will only share 1-2 major market insights per week!

At the same time, legendary trader Banmuxia has spoken, and his views are largely similar to ours!

The next 1-2 months is the best time to buy risk assets (BTC, S&P, CSI 300), based on the previous judgment of market probability by Banmuxia; his opinion is still worth considering.

Do you think there are still opportunities in the market?

Welcome to discuss in the comments!