First of all, I missed the rate hike time in Japan in July 2024.
The timing of this round of rate hikes in Japan should be:
In March 2024, the interest rate will be raised from -0.1% to around 0.1%.
In July 2024, the interest rate will be raised from around 0.1% to around 0.25%.
In January 2025, the interest rate will be raised from around 0.25% to around 0.5%.
On December 19, 2025, the interest rate is expected to be raised from around 0.5% to around 0.75%.
Basically, the pace of rate hikes in Japan is twice a year, which is slightly higher than the frequency written by Brother Bee before, but it's not excessively frequent.
┈┈➤ The volatility data of a certain month is purely nonsensical.
There is a set of data like this.
In March 2024, it dropped by 24%.
In July 2024, it dropped by 30%.
In January 2025, it dropped by 32%.
The average drop reached 28.7%.
Brother Bee went to take a look, how is this so-called drop calculated?
▌March 2024
BTC opened at 61206.27, closed at 71316.08, highest at 73805.27, lowest at 59458.63.
Only by using highest/lowest-1 can you calculate 24%. Isn't this the maximum fluctuation of 24%?!
Moreover, the closing price in March 2024 is clearly higher than the opening price!
▌July 2024
BTC opened at 62672.04, closed at 64613.01, highest at 70015.86, lowest at 53542.23.
Similarly, only by using highest/lowest-1 can you calculate 30%.
July 2024 also saw an increase.
Moreover, Japan raised interest rates on July 31, 2024.
In August 2024, BTC closed at 58963.04, indeed down, a drop of 8.75% compared to the opening, and it cannot be completely determined to be related to Japan's interest rate hike.
▌January 2025
BTC opened at 93403.02, closed at 102437.64, highest at 109396.43, lowest at 89294.09.
This highest/lowest-1 is the maximum number that can be calculated, only 22.5%.
Moreover, BTC was also rising in January 2025.
Therefore, this set of data is truly nonsensical.
┈┈➤ Let's take a look at the specific fluctuations of the interest rate hike.
╰┈✦BTC's volatility
▌March 19, 2024
Japan raised interest rates from around -0.1% to around 0.1%.
BTC did indeed drop that day, but the next day it almost fully recovered. It then continued to rise.
▌July 31, 2024
Japan raised interest rates from around 0.1% to around 0.25%.
BTC dropped that day, rebounded slightly the next day, and then continued to drop.
On July 31, BTC opened at 66179.69, and on August 5, 2024, BTC closed at 53969.16, with a lowest price of 49111.87.
It dropped for about 5 days, with a drop of 18.45%, and the maximum drop was 25.79%.
Moreover, at that time, there was a conflict between Israel and Gaza, which also had a negative impact, so it wasn't entirely Japan's interest rate hike's fault.
▌January 24, 2025
Japan raised interest rates from around 0.25% to around 0.5%.
It seems that the drop on January 22 was an early release of interest rate hike expectations.
On January 22, BTC opened at 106019.3, there was a stage low around January 27 (after February, it was the impact of Trump's tariff increase). The lowest on January 27 was 97759.61, and it continued to drop on January 28, with a closing price of 102045.3.
Overall, it dropped for about 6 days, with a drop of 3.75%, and the maximum drop was 7.79%.
▌December 2025
On December 1, the news of Japan's interest rate hike was released, and there was also a significant drop that day; the next day it recovered, then gradually declined.
On December 1, BTC's opening price was 90398, and the lowest price in December was 85203, with a maximum drop of 5.75%.
▌Summary
First of all, it can be generally confirmed that Japan's interest rate hike indeed has a negative impact on BTC prices.
Second, the impact may last about a week, and subsequent fluctuations may have other influencing factors. After Japan's interest rate hike in July 2024, it was the Israel-Gaza conflict. After Japan's interest rate hike in January 2025, it was Trump's tariff increase.
Third, the impact of Japan's interest rate hike on BTC is not that exaggerated; July 24 was a dual impact of Japan's interest rate hike combined with the Israel-Gaza conflict.
╰┈✦Volatility of the S&P 500
▌March 19, 2024
The S&P 500 index also rose and did not really respond to this interest rate hike in Japan.
▌July 31, 2024
The S&P rose slightly that day, and then also fell continuously until August 5. It should also be the dual impact of Japan's interest rate hike and the Israel-Gaza conflict.
▌January 24, 2025
Unlike BTC, the S&P started to drop on January 24, with no prior drop. It fell until January 27.
▌December 2025
On December 1, the S&P had fluctuations, but overall did not drop.
▌Summary
Like BTC, Japan's interest rate hike also has a certain negative effect on U.S. stocks.
However, unlike BTC, it seems that U.S. stocks did not drop in advance.
The Federal Reserve seems to have a bit of a split personality.
┈┈➤ Final thoughts
First, it can be confirmed that Japan's interest rate hike is bearish.
Second, but the bearish impact of Japan's interest rate hike is not that exaggerated; the drop after July 31, 2024, was a dual bearish effect of Japan's interest rate hike combined with the Israel-Gaza conflict.
Third, however, BTC is more sensitive than U.S. stocks and has already dropped in advance. It is now uncertain whether BTC has fully priced in the impact of Japan's interest rate hike.
However, the monthly drop data of 20%~30% is purely nonsensical. I don't know who created the anxiety over Japan's interest rate hike... or if it was just a calculation error?
