First, this wasn't a "sudden transformation into a bear," but rather a pre-written script.
If you look back at all the messages you've posted in the past week, you'll find a common thread:
👉 There are no black swan events, only the slow closing of doors.
No recession declared
No emergency market intervention
No systemic explosion
There wasn't even a "major negative factor".
But the market continues to deteriorate.
This is precisely the first characteristic of this bear market:
It doesn't scare people away with panic, but rather wears them down by saying "I can hold on a little longer."
II. Macroeconomic Theme: High interest rates are not an accident, but an "accepted reality".
Of the key data you provided, three are at the skeletal level:
1️⃣ Federal Reserve:
75.6% of respondents in January indicated no interest rate cut.
The probability of a rate cut in March is 50/50.
Trump can only "talk," but he can't bring things down.
The meaning can be summed up in just one sentence:
High interest rates are not temporary; they are a state that is tacitly allowed to continue.
2️⃣ Bank of Japan:
Highest interest rate in 30 years
This clearly implies that 0.75% is not the end goal.
what does that mean?
👉 The world's last "ultra-low-cost funding source" is shutting down.
3️⃣ Trump's statement on "significant future interest rate cuts"
This is not good news, but rather:
A narrative of political compensation for the inability to lower prices now.
When you start reassuring the market with "it will definitely be saved in the future,"
General explanation:
👉 This pain is now unavoidable.
III. Regulatory Focus: Not Blocking Encryption, But "Narrowing the Path"
All the regulatory news you publish points to the same thing:
✅ SEC: Discussing how to incorporate encryption into NSE/ATS
✅ Federal Reserve: Withdraws strong opposition for 2023, but changes to "case-by-case approval"
✅ Banks: They don't enter the game freely, but are selected and chosen to enter.
What does this tell us?
👉 Encryption has not been denied.
👉 But "wild crypto" is being systematically squeezed out.
What does this mean for prices?
The narrative won't die immediately, but the "premium space" will be slowly eroded.
A bear market is not a price crash.
Instead:
Each rebound was weaker.
Each story is shorter
Every seemingly positive development ends up being a structural contraction.
IV. The Main Theme of Exchanges and Platforms: They No Longer Bet on Market Trends
It's crucial that you posted a lot of Coinbase-related information:
Everything Exchange
Stocks + Crypto
Prediction Market
Tokenize / RWA
Enterprise-customized stablecoins
India only buys minority stakes
A very important signal:
👉 The exchange is undertaking a "ten-year project," not betting on a bull market.
When the exchange begins:
Eat infrastructure
Eat and settle
Eat stablecoins
Eat enterprise end
What does this mean?
They have already tacitly agreed that they cannot survive on transaction fees and market fluctuations in the next few years.
This is typical behavior in the later stages of a bear market.
V. On-chain and Whale Mainline: Not a Mistake in Direction, But "Defeated by Time"
The on-chain data you provided is very complete and has already formed a clear picture:
1️⃣ BTC OG Insider Whale
Weekly unrealized loss > 92 million
The margin is only 27 million.
No adding to positions, no stop-loss orders, just stubbornly holding on.
2️⃣ HYPE、ETH、SOL
Whale replenishes deposit
Leveraged long positions have begun "life-saving" operations.
3️⃣ SHIB Top Ranking Address
Not a market crash
This is the first time I've proactively submitted my coins to an exchange.
These three types of behavior combined lead to only one conclusion:
This bear market isn't killing the direction, but rather the "position".
Those who are overly optimistic are acting too early.
Those who were bearish started to cash in.
Those who hold onto losing positions are becoming targets of the market.
This isn't about who's right or wrong.
This is a structural rearrangement.
VI. The most crucial move: The liquidation structure has already been written in the right direction.
The Coinglass data you provided represents the "execution instructions" for this bear market:
Below 85,000: 1.052 billion long orders liquidated.
Above 88,000: 371 million short positions liquidated.
what does that mean?
👉 Downward "flow along the way" is 3 times that of upward flow.
Without clear policy support and without new liquidity:
The market will almost certainly choose
A less strenuous direction.
Therefore, the "progressive method" of this bear market is not a sharp drop, but rather:
pins
rebound
Insert needle again
Clean the lever little by little.
VII. Political Theme: The start of challenging the rules indicates that reality is no longer easily explained.
The two Trump news items you posted are very important:
Designate a "future interest rate-cutting chairman"
Private discussions about a "third term"
This is not dramatic news.
Rather, it is a warning sign:
👉 When reality turns ugly, politics starts to change the rules.
For the market, this means:
Institutional premium decline
Increased uncertainty
Long-term funds are more conservative
This won't collapse immediately.
Instead, it's a repricing of the risk premium.
8. Putting all the lines together, the complete script for this bear market is as follows:
I'll give you a complete timeline-style script:
Act One (already occurred)
Not too bad, but not good either.
No interest rate cut
No bailout
No spoilers
The market is going sideways.
Act Two (In Progress)
"Position cleaning"
Leveraged long positions are being gradually suppressed.
The giant whale could no longer carry it.
Genesis address tests liquidity
The liquidation will come slowly, like the tide.
Act Three (Coming Soon)
"The final blow wasn't the news, it was the structure."
A not unexpected downward break
No news coverage
But the reckoning naturally erupted.
Only then did my emotions truly break down.
Act Four (The True Bottom Phase)
"Nobody's waiting for an interest rate cut anymore."
Trump no longer mentions it
KOLs no longer shout
The whales no longer stubbornly resisted.
Trading volume dried up
The fluctuations actually decreased.
👉 That's the stage where you can pick things up slowly.
9. Finally, here's a "golden line" for identifying a bear market.
When the market starts repeatedly telling you:
"Don't be afraid, there will be interest rate cuts / government intervention / a rebound."
That usually means:
This downward stretch is not yet finished.
This bear market isn't meant to scare you away.
Rather, it was for—
👉 Remove those who "shouldn't be heavily invested at this stage," one by one. $BTC
