In the cryptocurrency world, we are not afraid of sharp declines; what we fear is sideways grinding — sharp declines are clear sell-offs, while sideways movement is about secretly accumulating, leaving behind the retail investors and retaining the winners.
Open the 4-hour chart, BTC's trend is exactly as I predicted last week: oscillating between 85,000 and 88,000, with an intraday fluctuation just over 0.28%, like a gambler holding onto their cards and refusing to play. But don't be fooled by this appearance of 'dawdling'; the movements of funds under the surface have already revealed the secret — Grayscale quietly increased its holdings by 2,312 BTC this week, and the 'shark addresses' holding between 100 to 1,000 coins went crazy, buying 54,000 coins in a week, with the pace of accumulation reaching a thirteen-year high. On one side, earlier trapped positions are secretly cutting losses around 88,000, while on the other side, institutions are frantically buying below 86,000. This is not sideways trading; it is clearly institutions rewarding those with patience!
The words of the master are not empty talk; let's get some solid evidence: Yesterday, a whale transaction of 500 million dollars withdrew from Coinbase, breaking down 7,999 BTC into 50 addresses to hide them. The circle is guessing it's BlackRock or similar ETF issuers hoarding. Looking at the technical side, MACD is sticking close to the zero axis, the red bars are short but not shrinking, and RSI is hovering around 43, not yet oversold but showing signs of divergence—this is exactly the same signal as when BTC was sideways at 45,000 last November; back then, institutions were secretly increasing their positions, and after a week of consolidation, it shot straight to 60,000.
Someone asked, 'Will 85,000 break?' I said directly: No! This position is a key Fibonacci support level and a structural defense line for the low point in November. It has bounced back twice within three days without breaking, enough to show how strong the support is. But don't rush blindly; a few days ago, my fan Xiao Li told me, 'I chased 89,000 with a full position,' and now he asks every day whether to cut losses. I scolded him, 'Chasing highs and selling lows is always the fate of retail investors.' The real players are building positions in batches at 86,000, setting a stop-loss at 85,000, neither stubborn nor missing out—this is how to drink soup with institutions.
Some might argue, 'The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts lack sincerity; can it rise?' This statement is only half true. While the Federal Reserve hasn't flooded the market, smart money like Grayscale and Shark addresses are not foolish; they are watching the long-tail effect of spot ETFs, and they know how attractive the chips around 85,000 are. Last year, institutions bottomed out around 60,000, and by the time the ETF news landed, it had already doubled; the current situation is clearly a replication of history. Moreover, on-chain data doesn't lie; the BTC reserves on exchanges are continuously decreasing, and the chips available for sale are becoming fewer—this is the ironclad evidence of 'volume contraction and bottoming out.'
Finally, let me reveal something to everyone: Once the U.S. inflation data comes out on Thursday, as long as BTC can hold at 88,000, breaking the downward trend line at 94,000 is a sure thing, and it's even possible to head straight for 100,000.
To be honest, I've been in the crypto space for eight years. I've seen too many people blow up chasing highs and many who patiently doubled their investments. The current market is like the calm before a storm; if you endure it, the sky will be clear. Those who shout 'the bear market is coming' every day either have no chips or want to trick you into using your blood money.
A twelve-year journey in finance, the exclusive secrets of pioneers in the crypto space: Insight into the market, steady progress, focus on how the master teaches you to steadily increase value, risks and opportunities coexist in investment, blind operations are a big taboo in the crypto space!
