The United States will simultaneously release the non-farm employment reports for October and November today. Recent reports surrounding the job market have been nothing short of 'dramatic.' Due to the previous government shutdown and changes in decision-making bodies, data on unemployment rates and new job figures that should have been released at the beginning of the month have been delayed by several weeks. Interestingly, the newly released data covers the employment situation for two different months, but the statistical sample is incomplete due to reasons such as some federal employees being forced to stop working and some layoff compensations expiring. Mainstream media often headlines with 'missing numbers' and 'survey sample interference,' emphasizing the report's 'unreliability' and suggesting that the market may misinterpret it in haste.

The mainstream focus revolves around data gaps, yet overlooks the political implications hidden behind the 'delayed + merged' release. When the market hears 'missing data,' it usually interprets it as 'unknown.' However, for the market, this 'incompleteness' may actually make the policy side more susceptible to short-term fluctuations, potentially leading to unexpected actions at the next interest rate meeting. The real point of concern should be the unexpected changes in 'layoff numbers and labor force participation rates' and what they imply for substantive economic growth, which may lead some to misjudge employment trends, thinking that the labor market is weaker or stronger than expected.

In my view, this kind of incomplete data is just like opening a blind box; it can easily surprise you! So don't expect too much! It’s very likely to just fluctuate a bit and then return to a stable position! #比特币价格 #非农数据