Oil's been moving in one direction every day.
On June 22, Brent bounced back nearly 3%, closing at $77.9. Just the day before, it dropped 3.3% due to the US-Iran talks.
I checked the volatility source: the traffic through Hormuz jumped to 25 ships on June 18 (up from a daily average of 7.6 ships), and then dropped back to 5 ships on the 22nd. When traffic tightens, oil prices rebound.
This isn't just about supply and demand pricing; the Strait insurance premium is also playing a role.
Brent is currently in the $75-80 range, essentially supported by geopolitical risk premiums. If the daily traffic through Hormuz stabilizes above 50 ships, this equilibrium will shift downward. If it drops back into single digits, then expect prices to rise.
#Oil price bounces back 3% #OIL #Brent
On June 22, Brent bounced back nearly 3%, closing at $77.9. Just the day before, it dropped 3.3% due to the US-Iran talks.
I checked the volatility source: the traffic through Hormuz jumped to 25 ships on June 18 (up from a daily average of 7.6 ships), and then dropped back to 5 ships on the 22nd. When traffic tightens, oil prices rebound.
This isn't just about supply and demand pricing; the Strait insurance premium is also playing a role.
Brent is currently in the $75-80 range, essentially supported by geopolitical risk premiums. If the daily traffic through Hormuz stabilizes above 50 ships, this equilibrium will shift downward. If it drops back into single digits, then expect prices to rise.
#Oil price bounces back 3% #OIL #Brent